IMRA Middle East News Updates

83% of Likely U.S. Voters would be concerned if the peace deal allowed Iran to retain its ability to fund and supply terrorists in other countries

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 15:57:34 -0400

83% of Likely U.S. Voters would be concerned if the peace deal allowed Iran
to retain its ability to fund and supply terrorists in other countries. That
includes 61% who would be Very Concerned. Just 12% aren't concerned about
Iran retaining its ability to fund terrorism in other countries.

72% of U.S. Likely Voters would be concerned if the peace deal allowed Iran
to retain highly enriched uranium.

75% would be concerned if the peace deal allowed Iran to retain control over
the Strait of Hormuz.

77% would be concerned if the peace deal allowed Iran to retain long-range
ballistic missiles.

Source: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administratio
n_second_term/voters_have_concerns_about_iran_peace_negotiations

Observation: Israel Pays Price for Netanyahu's Bypassing Cabinet?

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:45:57 -0400

Observation: Israel Pays Price for Netanyahu's Bypassing Cabinet?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 June 2026

"I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel,
and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on
their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed
Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that
all shooting will stop - That Israel will not attack them, and they will not
attack Israel." President DONALD J. TRUMP
Truth Social 1 June 2026

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Speaks with US President Donald Trump

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this evening (Monday, 1 June 2026) [translated from Hebrew]:

“I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut.

This position of ours remain unchanged.

Concurrently, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon.”

Our Security Cabinet never approved the series of ceasefires in Lebanon.

There were meetings of the Security Cabinet but they never voted.

This was a very serious break in procedure.

The procedure which Mr. Netanyahu followed in all other similar situations.

And it appears that we are paying a heavy cost.

Until now, the need for the consent of the Security Cabinet served as
evidence that Netanyahu is subject to limits because of his coalition - an
explanation our prime minister shared with many American presidents.

An argument which made sense when presented by someone serving as prime
minister in a democracy.

But after showing that he doesn't need the consent of his Security Cabinet,
Prime Minister Netanyahu stripped himself of this argument.

"He (Netanyahu) will do whatever I want him to do."
President Trump to reporters, 20.5.2026

And now "quiet for quiet" is being shoved down our throats.

Anyone whose brain has been functioning these past few years knows that
"quiet for quiet" is a disastrous policy.

Under this approach, Hezbollah will be permitted to continue operations full
throttle inside Beirut so long as it does not kill too many Israelis.

The only real way for Lebanon to be saved is if the Lebanese leadership can
justify its collaboration in action against Hezbollah.

And that requires a tangible disaster-in-progress as IDF action against
Hezbollah destroys parts of Beirut and elsewhere.

Yes. Our prime minister screwed up.

And now it is up to Mr. Netanyahu to correct his error.

And fortunately, Binyamin Netanyahu is a very smart guy.

He needs to figure this out.

Mr, Netanyahu must, for all our sakes, to do the right thing and drop this
"quiet for quiet" farce.

And that "all" includes Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf States, America's partners
in the Far East and yes, the United States of America itself.

Because the whole world is watching.

And when they see the United States screwing Israel, they don't pity the
Jewish State. They worry if they might be next.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Shame on You, Sec'y Rubio, for "Quiet for Quiet" Proposal

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 03:58:45 -0400

Shame on You, Sec'y Rubio, for "Quiet for Quiet" Proposal
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 June 2026

"I want the Department of State to have the best ideas and the best options
available for the President, and then I want us to be able to execute them
better than any agency in our government. That will also be a task of mine.
I have watched from the congressional side from time to time,
administrations in both parties, in which sometimes the Department of State
has been sort of relegated to a secondary role because some other agency can
move faster or seems to be bolder or more creative. It's not your fault, but
we're going to change that. We want to be at the centerpiece, and we want to
be at the core of how we formulate foreign policy, because we're going to
have the best ideas of any agency and because we're going to execute it
better and faster and more effectively than any other agency in our
government. And I know we have the right team to do it."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Remarks to Employees 21 January 2025

I genuinely expected you to have your team come up with "the best ideas".

That is why I am so profoundly disappointed to read that you are proposing
"quiet for quiet" in Lebanon.

Under this approach, Hezbollah would be permitted to continue operations
full throttle inside Beirut so long as it does not kill too many Israelis.

This isn't a "best idea" - it is an old, failed policy.

And it doesn't require the knowledge of a top expert in Middle Eastern
affairs to know this.

Anyone whose brain has been functioning these past few years knows that
"quiet for quiet" is a disastrous policy.

So there are two possibilities:

#1. You and everyone else on your team are idiots.

#2. Israel's security - and for that matter, the future of Lebanon - is
taking a back seat to a deal with Iran which requires sacrificing Lebanon to
Iran.

Mr. Rubio, we aren't children.

And we know you aren't an idiot.

We know that you know that the only real way for Lebanon to be saved is if
the Lebanese leadership can justify its collaboration in action against
Hezbollah.

And that requires a tangible disaster-in-progress as IDF action against
Hezbollah destroys parts of Beirut and elsewhere.

And since we aren't children, we also appreciate how important a deal with
Iran is for your boss.

And how challenging it is for you to deviate even a millimeter from what Mr.
Trump thinks or wants at any given moment

I appreciate that you are "paying your dues", thinking to yourself that at
some time in the future when you are your own man you can make this all
right.

But you are a man of principles.

A man of morals.

And you know in your heart that doing the right thing in the future cannot
compensate for immoral acts today.

So I urge you, for all our sakes, to do the right thing and drop this "quiet
for quiet" farce.

And that "all" includes Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf States, America's partners
in the Far East and yes, the United States of America itself.

Because the whole world is watching.

And when they see you and your government screwing Israel, they don't pity
the Jewish State. They worry if they might be next.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Netanyahu wrong that "Those who do not study Torah must enlist"

Thu, 28 May 2026 16:29:17 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Netanyahu wrong that "Those who do not study Torah must
enlist"
Dr. Aaron Lerner 28 May 2026

"Those who do not study Torah must enlist."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the IDF Hasmonean Brigade 28 May 2026

Mr. Netanyahu appears to embrace the approach that Haredis are the "me
generation on steroids".

Prime Minister Netayahu isn't saying that a select group of Torah scholars
be granted a waiver from army service.

Instead, he implies that anyone who engages in Torah study be granted a
waiver from army service.

That's regardless of the quality of his Torah study.

And that is why this is the "me generation on steroids".

There is absolutely no other activity which people can unilaterally choose to
do which automatically and without any qualifications, grants a concession
from society of anything close to the magnitude of a waiver from army
service.

To be clear: there most certainly may be a logic behind granting a waiver
from army service for the top haredi scholars of a generation, though I
personally think that it is important that the top haredi scholars of a
generation have the experience of army service.

But that's a group which is granted a waiver of army service based on their
being selected via some process.

Not self-selected.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Critical to Prepare For Iran-US Deal Also Covering Lebanon and Gaza

Sun, 24 May 2026 08:40:04 -0400

Critical to Prepare For Iran-US Deal Also Covering Lebanon and Gaza
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 May 2026

Were it not for the following sentence, I would not be writing this:
"He (Netanyahu) will do whatever I want him to do."
President Trump to reporters, 20.5.2026

And this in comparison to Trump's remarks before the Knesset on 13.10.2025:
"He's not easy, I'm telling you. He's not the easiest person to work with -
but that's exactly what makes him great."

We must prepare ourselves for the challenge posed if the reports are correct
regarding an agreement between Trump and Iran and if it is implemented.

An agreement that includes - in the best-case scenario - a return to "quiet
for quiet" vis-a-vis Hezbollah and Hamas, and in a more realistic scenario,
the paralysis of IDF operations on both fronts so as not to interfere with
"the completion and implementation of Trump's historic achievements for
peace," despite "disturbances by the enemies of the peace that is
approaching."

With all the respect and appreciation I have for Benjamin Netanyahu, I do
not believe that he alone can formulate and implement the difficult
decisions that will be required to meet this challenge.

Decisions that will once again make Netanyahu a leader who is "not the
easiest person to work with" in Trump's eyes, to put it mildly.

What is not required are many hours of meaningless discussions merely to
allow ministers to blow off steam. What is required are many hours of
serious discussions that lead to the decision that we are not returning to
"quiet for quiet" and that we are setting out to complete the job in Lebanon
and Gaza.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Eisenkot Candidacy Neuters Haredi Issue?

Thu, 21 May 2026 08:48:36 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Eisenkot Candidacy Neuters Haredi Issue?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 21 May 2026

When the Israeli experts on the popular American "Call Me Back" program were
asked why candidate Gadi Eisenkot is popular they explained:

#1. His son died in combat.

#2. His nephew died in combat.

They then petered off in their remarks because as IDF Chief of Staff,
Eisenkot was involved in building the wrong army and pursuing the wrong
policies for the challenges which we ultimately faced when our enemies
decided to attack, rather than continue to prepare to attack.

Yes.

Gadi Eisenkot is popular.

There are right wing taking heads who praise him because they think he will
suck away enough votes from the opposition that Netanyahu will be able to
make a new coalition with his Yashar party and the Haredis.

The left-wing talking heads opt to ignore this outcome but instead focus on
their hatred for Bennett.

Bennett, after all, is a right winger stealing left wing votes.

And the more sophisticated talking heads recall that Bennett sacrificed his
coalition for the sake of Judea and Samaria.

The "Emergency Regulations (Judea and Samaria - Adjudication of Offenses and
Legal Aid), 5727-1967 extends Israeli civilian law (criminal and civil
jurisdiction) to Israeli citizens and communities living in Judea and
Samaria. It has been in force since right after the 1967 Six-Day War and is
renewed by the Knesset every five years because it is technically an
"emergency regulation" with temporary legal status.

The extension was due to expire on 30 June 2022 and then Opposition Leader
Binyamin Netanyahu decided to do a "Judgment of Solomon" on Bennett by
refusing to vote in favor of the extension.

This left Bennett with the choice between remaining in power with a
catastrophe for the Jewish community in Judea and Samaria or dissolving the
Knesset to go to elections, thus automatically extending the validity of
these specific emergency regulations until the new Knesset was sworn in.

Bennett, in their eyes, betrayed his coalition partners by choosing the
Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria rather than staying in power.

So the talking heads are easy on Eisenkot.

Netanyahu's campaign won't say a word because Eisenkot will help form his
coalition.

Bennett won't criticize Eisenkot's record because he also wants to keep the
door open for him.

Avigdor Lieberman also can't rule out working out something with Eisenkot.

The result may very well be that an election which had the potential to
focus on the Haredi issue leads instead to a Netanyahu-Eisenkot-Haredi
coalition.

But what about the draft?

The coalition will mark October 2028 on their calendars. That's when
Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit celebrates his 70th birthday and leaves
the bench.

Until then it will be a bumpy road.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il