IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Temple Mount Movement Thwarted The Boiling Frog Plot

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 17:12:45 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Temple Mount Movement Thwarted The Boiling Frog Plot
Dr. Aaron Lerner 3 July 2025

#1 If not for Jewish activity on the Temple Mount, Sinwar would have followed the recommendation of Hamas intelligence and the Hamas invasion would have taken place under dramatically more devastating circumstances in coordination with Hezbollah and Iran.

#2. If not for the developments which followed in Lebanon, Iran's pace of weaponization would have remained at a level which would not have drawn an Israeli response.

It is said that If you put a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will immediately leap out. But if you put a frog into cold water and gradually raise the temperature, it will stay there until it is boiled alive.

That aptly describes our situation before 7 October 7 2024.

Iran was progressing at a pace in its nuclear weapons program as well as ballistic missiles production program which, in the view of decision makers, did not justify radical action.

While we were aware that Hezbollah continued to build up its massive stores of guided missiles and rockets as well as preparations to invade, those guided missiles and rockets effectively deterred us from confronting these challenges. We frequently bombed inside Syria but the moment weapons crossed into Lebanon they safe.

As for the Gaza Strip, we found it convenient to ignore the ongoing, large scale, preparations of Hamas.

So what went wrong with what was essentially a boiling frog plot?

Haniyah and the Temple Mount.

The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center recently published details of the July 2023 Hamas intelligence report whose main recommendation was not to initiate a military confrontation but rather to wait for the crisis inside Israel to worsen.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was intimately familiar with Israel

The intelligence report didn't tell him something he wasn't aware of.

But Sinwar was also a religious fanatic.

And as a fanatic, the ever-increasing Jewish activity on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem blew his fuses.

So instead of following the recommendations of Hamas intelligence, Hamas, without proper coordination with either Iran or Hezbollah, invaded Israel.

Hezbollah, instead of invading with full force at the same moment, engaged in a prolonged and ever-increasing series of tit for tat.

And Iran basically remained at the sidelines.

As a message to an intransigent Hamas leadership, Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh on 31 July 2024 in Teheran.

Iran didn't budge.

And most of both the Israeli defense establishment and political leadership wanted to remain in the pot, hoping that the tit for tat would resolve itself.

So much so that in early September 2024, most of the Israeli defense establishment and political leadership advocated forfeiting the exploding beeper/walkie talkie project when Hamas began to detect the devices.

On 17 September 2024 Prime Minister Netanyahu opted to support the Mossad's minority recommendation and the thousands of pagers detonated simultaneously.

This turning point ultimately led to killing Hezbollah’s Secretary‑General Hassan Nasrallah in a major airstrike on 27 September 2024.

It was only at this point that Iran directly entered the fray with a major missile attack against the Jewish State on 1 October 2024.

While Israel's 26 October 2024 on Iran showed impressive abilities this was by no means part of some master plan to remove the Iranian nuclear threat.

As Treasury Minister Smotrich, who participated in the secret planning of the war against Iran, explained in an interview in the 26 June 2025 edition of Makor Rishon:

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"...somewhere in last November-December we begin to gather again for intensive discussions regarding Iran.

This happens because reliable intelligence arrives regarding two dimensions

- also in the nuclear (program), that Iran is approaching the bomb and begins to engage in weaponization, something that did not happen for many years.

Also in missiles - we understand very quickly that no less dangerous than the nuclear is Iran’s striving, which planned to triple its missile production rate from 100 per month to 300. That means 3,600 per year.

The meaning is that if we started the campaign now when Iran has about 2,500 missiles capable of reaching the State of Israel, in another two years it will have ten thousand. This would create a balance of terror and give it a protective umbrella to pursue the nuclear, because who can attack it when it has such a quantity of missiles.

After we saw what one such missile can cause, it is clear what the meaning could be of ten thousand missiles.

Within a year, it was clarified in those confidential discussions, Iran would already have 6,000 missiles, and an attack would be almost impossible.

Therefore, the time to act was pressing.

In November Trump won, and we understand that there is here a window of opportunity and begin to work in a very intensive way with the army."
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Jewish activity on the Temple Mount didn't endanger Israel - it saved it.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

COS Zamir wrong to cite hostages to thwart victory

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 02:26:08 -0400

COS wrong to cite hostages to thwart victory
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 July 2025

Chief of Staff Zamir warned the cabinet that deepening the ground maneuver and continuing the fighting in Gaza would endanger the hostages.

With all due respect, the mistake from the very first day of the war was that we tied the IDF’s hands by restricting operations in order to avoid harming the hostages.

What’s strange to me is that, as a nation, we long ago internalized that sometimes difficult, even cruel decisions must be made - that we are mature enough to understand that the fate of the nation takes precedence over the fate of specific individuals.

Moreover, the cabinet approved a war against Iran when it was expected that there could be hundreds, if not thousands, of Israeli civilian casualties, along with air crews that would not return.

So I truly wonder, after all that, how the Chief of Staff recites talking points as if it is legitimate to sacrifice the entire state for the sake of the hostages.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: http://www.imra.org.il

Hamas insists remain in power and armed - Lapid complains why no deal

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 05:34:16 -0400

Reality check: Hamas insists remain in power and armed - Lapid complains why
no deal
Dr. Aaron Lerner 30 June 2025

Reshet Bet 09:00 news bulletin features Mk Lapid attacking the government
for not making a deal with Hamas to end the war and release the hostages
followed by report of Hamas leader who states that Hamas insists that Hamas
remain in power in Gaza with their weapons.

https://youtu.be/cupg1VIcRjo

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - No Time For Games About Palestinian

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 12:50:48 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - No Time For Games About Palestinian State
Dr. Aaron Lerner 27 June 2025

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu knows that a sovereign Palestinian state
of any size would be a disaster.

He knows that once a sovereign state exists that it remains a sovereign
state even if it renounces whatever commitments it made to receive that
status.

And he knows that sovereignty can be exploited in terrible ways.

But I fear that Netanyahu may play poker with the sovereignty card.

Betting that he can make sure that it never happens.

But there are too many things which can go wrong.

Mr. Trump may press us in ways we were never pressed before if he believes
that creating a sovereign state is a necessary condition for reaching some
goal which he seeks in his term.

And there is no telling who the president will be after him.

Look at the surprise this week in New York.

Add to that: an Israeli leader after Netanyahu may have to deal with
pressure to come through with the promises Netanyahu made.

And let's be clear: any list of conditions we set will be met.

If we require that the sky is purple, we could have a world proclaiming it
is purple.

After all, the CIA continually signed off the PA was complying during the
early years of Oslo so that they could get USA funds.

And even if Mr. Netanyahu is certain he could always handle the challenge,
considering the disdain he has for the caliber of the other politicians
here, he most certainly doesn't think that anyone else could succeed.

So Mr. Netanyahu, please don't play games about Palestinian sovereignty.

Let's keep this card out of the game.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

China Rushing Equipment And Supplies For Iranian Ballistic Missile Construction

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:56:20 -0400

China Rushing Equipment And Supplies For Iranian Ballistic Missile
Construction
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 June 2025

Already on Friday, June 13th, literally hours after Israel attacked, Iran
placed a large rush order with China for the equipment and supplies for the
manufacture of ballistic missiles.

Some of the off-the-shelf equipment will already be on its way this week.

It will only take a few months for the special-order equipment, such as the
solid fuel mixers, to be supplied, as they are all repeat orders requiring
no engineering work.

In the absence of any restrictions, Iran's experienced production teams
could make 1,000 ballistic missiles from scratch in as little as half a year
and 2,000 within a year.

Now don't get me wrong.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and his team faced an existential challenge for the
Jewish State.

And they met this challenge in cooperation with President Trump.

I certainly don't have the chutzpah to second guess how this was handled.

Nevertheless, I am already raising the issue of the ballistic missiles out
of the fear that, since these conventional weapons aren't as "sexy" as
nukes, that we find Washington preferring to ignore the problem.

We have the advantage of being a democracy having elections next year at the
latest.

And I doubt any voter will soon forget the experience of sitting in a bomb
shelter knowing that they and their loved ones wouldn't survive the direct
hit of an Iranian ballistic missile.

This challenge must be addressed.

The clock is already ticking.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Israel On Its Own - Trump Gives Iran 14 days (For Now)?

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:27:42 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Israel On Its Own - Trump Gives Iran 14 days (For Now)?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 June 2025

At the White House Press Briefing just now, Karoline Leavitt anno0unced
that President Trump within the next two week will make a decision whether
to join in the military activity against Iran based on if he thinks Iran is
serious about negotiations.

Leavitt then went on to say that President Turmp insists that Iran not have
enrichment.

Why in the world it takes another two weeks to see if Iran changes its mind
isn't clear.

Here is my hope against hope:

Mr. Trump said "within two weeks".

This Saturday , 20 June, is indeed "within the next two weeks." SO maybe he
is trying to trick them into complacency.

But if Mr. Trump actually wants to push off a decision by another two weeks
then, unfortunately, I think we cannot wait for him to move.

In that case, we have to do the job ourselves.

Not to worry - when we succeed, Mr. Trump will no doubt send out a message
taking credit for it - "We Did It!"

To be clear, I do not take lightly the heavy cost we may bear in order to
do the job at Fordow which America could do at a fraction of the human cost.

But, for all intents and purposes, unless there's a surprise over the
weekend , Mr. Trump is no longer relevant to dealing with Fordow.

Tucker Carlson may have emasculated President Trump.

But Carlson cannot stop the Jewish State from saving itself, and the world,
from Iran.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il