IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: We Can't Let Hostages Trump Victory

Fri, 16 May 2025 10:21:55 -0400

Weekly Commentary: We Can't Let Hostages Trump Victory
Dr. Aaron Lerner 16 May 2025

Only a few brave leaders have openly shared the painful truth: it is highly
likely that we cannot defeat Hamas if we continue to rule out military
operations which might possibly endanger hostages.

This is probably the first war in the history of the world in which a
country chose a long drawn-out conflict with huge losses both in casualties
and economic costs by severely restricting operations in order to avoid
endangering hostages.

To be clear: its only human for emotions to trump logic in the extended
family which is the very nature of our Jewish State.

That's why, over a decade ago, the Shamgar Commission on hostages
recommended that Israel's decision makers not meet with hostage families.

I desperately hope that In the coming days our leaders have the intestinal
fortitude to do the right thing for the country and move quickly to defeat
Hamas on the ground.

I'm going to share a brutal political assessment: If we quickly smash Hamas
- even at the cost of dead hostages - this issue it NOT going to determine
the outcome of the next elections.

If the next elections take place AFTER the war ends, the parties will battle
over the central question "who can guaranty our children's future?".

Those are questions relating to education, housing and the economy -
including the continuation of current policies which encourage able bodied
men to intentionally choose poverty for their families.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

IMRA to US Embassy: Can Houthis Sink Zim vessels under deal?

Tue, 13 May 2025 10:45:22 -0400

IMRA to US Embassy: Can Houthis Sink Zim vessels under deal?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 May 2025

The following are the questions relayed to Gordon Morison at the US Embassy
in Israel:

Under the USA deal with the Houthis according to which the Houthis halt
attacking vessels for America but can continue to attack Israel, please
clarify the following:

1. Can the Houthis sink Zim cargo ships since they are Israeli?

2. Can the Houthis sink cargo ships which include Israeli ports in their
rotation?

3. Can the Houthis sink mother vessels carrying cargo to Israel which is
delivered to Israel via feeder vessels after transloading at a hub?

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Trump Foreign Film Duty - Terrifying Farce

Fri, 09 May 2025 08:27:53 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Trump Foreign Film Duty - Terrifying Farce
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 May 2025

When President Trump announced plans to apply a 100% duty on foreign films,
anyone with a modicum of understanding of duties knew it was a farce.

It isn't just that movies don't go through U.S. Customs.

They are now imported electronically into the USA as digital files.

I'm not even going into the technical side that the USA is a party to
international agreements which provide that duties cannot be applied to such
digital files.

There isn't even a "price" for a movie for calculating duty.

So we have the President of the United States of America announcing
something absurd.

No one around him corrects him.

Are they all so profoundly clueless?

And if he is surrounded by clueless people, certainly someone working for
these people must actually know something about how the customs duty system
operates.

And they either kept this to themselves or told the people above them, and
those people close to President Trump opted not to share this information
with the Commander in Chief.

To be clear: the farcical proposal isn't what's bothering me.

What's terrifying me is the thought that the very same incredible
cluelessness - and apparent lack of interest in not being clueless before
doing something - could also apply to critical matters which impact our very
survival.

With an extremely heavy heart, we have seen in recent days that even the
best and brightest on the Trump team decline to differ with the boss.

We had Secretary of State Rubio and even VP Vance giving a succinct
one-sentence (5-second) explanation why Iran cannot be allowed to enrich
uranium.

And yet Mr. Trump says he doesn't know if Iran will be prohibited from
enriching uranium.

This was followed by dead silence.

And in the case of the American surrender to the Houthis, we have many
people on the Trump team who certainly know better chiming in in an Amen
chorus praising this dangerous development.

At least we know the situation before we entered into some arrangement which
hinged on American reliability.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Step #1? Trump Abandons Israel In Houthi Deal

Tue, 06 May 2025 18:46:33 -0400

Step #1? Trump Abandons Israel In Houthi Deal
Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 May 2025

President Trump's ceasefire agreement with the Houthis focuses narrowly on
protecting U.S. and international shipping (especially access to the Suez
Canal via the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab) and does not cover Houthi attacks
against Israel.

The Houthis have openly declared they will continue attacks on Israel as
part of their support for Gaza, and the U.S. under this ceasefire has not
committed to defend Israel against those attacks.

So yes - as far as Washington is signaling, Israel is effectively on its own
in confronting Houthi missile or drone strikes, unless those attacks
escalate to a point that they also threaten U.S. assets or interests.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Iran Pisses On Trump, Will US Calls It Rain?

Thu, 01 May 2025 12:10:42 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Iran Pisses On Trump, Will US Calls It Rain?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 May 2025

I genuinely thought that President Trump, with his years of experience in
difficult business negotiations, knew where he wanted to get to in the talks
with Iran (no enrichment, monitored importation of up to 3.5% enriched
uranium for civilian uses) and was trying to corner the Iranians into the
deal by continually claiming progress.

This approach would enable Mr. Trump, after several rounds of talks which
were actually going nowhere, to angrily tell his supporters that Iran had
double crossed him by leading his negotiating team to believe that Iran was
actually willing to accept this most reasonable offer if Iran was truly only
interested in using uranium to generate electricity or make medical
products.

Iran today decided to test President Trump by publicly pissing on him:

DUBAI, May 1 (Reuters) - A fourth round of talks between the United States
and Iran, which was due to take place in Rome on Saturday, have been
postponed and a new date will be set "depending on the U.S. approach", a
senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday.
"U.S. sanctions on Iran during the nuclear talks are not helping the sides
to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy," the official told
Reuters. "Depending on the U.S. approach, the date of the next round of
talks will be announced".
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-postponed-new-date-d
epends-us-approach-iranian-official-says-2025-05-01/

It is noon in Washington and there has been no American response.

This with a president famous for his ability to shoot out messages in the
middle of a golf game in response to breaking news.

If the Trump team somehow calls this "rain" then we Israelis are on our own.

I hope and pray that we have come up with some secret conventional solution
to the Iranian challenge.

Secretary of State Rubio, remember what Mordechai told Esther: "For if you
remain silent at this time, relief and deliverance for the Jews will arise
from another place, but you and your father's family will perish. And who
knows but that you have come to royal position for such a time as this?"
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Haredi Draft Exemption – “Realpolitik” Not “Preserving Torah World”

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 09:29:41 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Haredi Draft Exemption – “Realpolitik” Not “Preserving Torah World”
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 April 2025

Some Israeli politicians defending efforts to pass legislation to legalize that Haredis do not have to serve in the IDF frequently claim that the move is to preserve “Torah study” and the “world of Torah”.

The true “Torah study” and “world of Torah” is represented by our heroes - those who both study Torah and serve as soldiers in the IDF.

So when politicians refer to “Torah study” and the “world of Torah” as if they are the exclusive domain of the Haredim they not only insult our heroes but also effectively deny our unique place in Jewish history.

Despite all our troubles, we have the privilege to be living in the longest period of Jewish sovereignty since Joshua crossed into the Promised Land.

And while we are living what our ancestors could only dream of, we have a Haredi society which, for the most part, opts to ignore this tremendous miracle and bides its time here as if the only difference between living in the Holy Land today and anywhere else in the world is that here they have the political power to make it possible to s urvive without able bodied men going to work.

As the People of the Book we also can get some solace from the perspective that even our most honored leaders were far from perfect. Almost all of them made some bad choices. The question was if, like David, they took responsibility or like Saul, they blamed others.

To be clear: I can understand a politician who explains “in this parliamentary democracy, given that the Israeli political street remains divided between parties which still yearn to eventually have a sovereign Palestinian state and those who reject the idea, we need the support of the Haredi MKs to form a ruling coalition to get important things done. And the only way we can get their support is by allowing the Haredis not to serve in the IDF.”

Not “Torah study”.

Not “World of Torah”.

Just ‘realpolitik.”
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il