IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - No Time For Games About Palestinian

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 12:50:48 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Netanyahu - No Time For Games About Palestinian State
Dr. Aaron Lerner 27 June 2025

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu knows that a sovereign Palestinian state
of any size would be a disaster.

He knows that once a sovereign state exists that it remains a sovereign
state even if it renounces whatever commitments it made to receive that
status.

And he knows that sovereignty can be exploited in terrible ways.

But I fear that Netanyahu may play poker with the sovereignty card.

Betting that he can make sure that it never happens.

But there are too many things which can go wrong.

Mr. Trump may press us in ways we were never pressed before if he believes
that creating a sovereign state is a necessary condition for reaching some
goal which he seeks in his term.

And there is no telling who the president will be after him.

Look at the surprise this week in New York.

Add to that: an Israeli leader after Netanyahu may have to deal with
pressure to come through with the promises Netanyahu made.

And let's be clear: any list of conditions we set will be met.

If we require that the sky is purple, we could have a world proclaiming it
is purple.

After all, the CIA continually signed off the PA was complying during the
early years of Oslo so that they could get USA funds.

And even if Mr. Netanyahu is certain he could always handle the challenge,
considering the disdain he has for the caliber of the other politicians
here, he most certainly doesn't think that anyone else could succeed.

So Mr. Netanyahu, please don't play games about Palestinian sovereignty.

Let's keep this card out of the game.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

China Rushing Equipment And Supplies For Iranian Ballistic Missile Construction

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:56:20 -0400

China Rushing Equipment And Supplies For Iranian Ballistic Missile
Construction
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 June 2025

Already on Friday, June 13th, literally hours after Israel attacked, Iran
placed a large rush order with China for the equipment and supplies for the
manufacture of ballistic missiles.

Some of the off-the-shelf equipment will already be on its way this week.

It will only take a few months for the special-order equipment, such as the
solid fuel mixers, to be supplied, as they are all repeat orders requiring
no engineering work.

In the absence of any restrictions, Iran's experienced production teams
could make 1,000 ballistic missiles from scratch in as little as half a year
and 2,000 within a year.

Now don't get me wrong.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and his team faced an existential challenge for the
Jewish State.

And they met this challenge in cooperation with President Trump.

I certainly don't have the chutzpah to second guess how this was handled.

Nevertheless, I am already raising the issue of the ballistic missiles out
of the fear that, since these conventional weapons aren't as "sexy" as
nukes, that we find Washington preferring to ignore the problem.

We have the advantage of being a democracy having elections next year at the
latest.

And I doubt any voter will soon forget the experience of sitting in a bomb
shelter knowing that they and their loved ones wouldn't survive the direct
hit of an Iranian ballistic missile.

This challenge must be addressed.

The clock is already ticking.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Israel On Its Own - Trump Gives Iran 14 days (For Now)?

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:27:42 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Israel On Its Own - Trump Gives Iran 14 days (For Now)?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 June 2025

At the White House Press Briefing just now, Karoline Leavitt anno0unced
that President Trump within the next two week will make a decision whether
to join in the military activity against Iran based on if he thinks Iran is
serious about negotiations.

Leavitt then went on to say that President Turmp insists that Iran not have
enrichment.

Why in the world it takes another two weeks to see if Iran changes its mind
isn't clear.

Here is my hope against hope:

Mr. Trump said "within two weeks".

This Saturday , 20 June, is indeed "within the next two weeks." SO maybe he
is trying to trick them into complacency.

But if Mr. Trump actually wants to push off a decision by another two weeks
then, unfortunately, I think we cannot wait for him to move.

In that case, we have to do the job ourselves.

Not to worry - when we succeed, Mr. Trump will no doubt send out a message
taking credit for it - "We Did It!"

To be clear, I do not take lightly the heavy cost we may bear in order to
do the job at Fordow which America could do at a fraction of the human cost.

But, for all intents and purposes, unless there's a surprise over the
weekend , Mr. Trump is no longer relevant to dealing with Fordow.

Tucker Carlson may have emasculated President Trump.

But Carlson cannot stop the Jewish State from saving itself, and the world,
from Iran.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

The Jewish People "owe" Yahya Sinwar for tipping the first domino which lead to the destruction of Hezbollah which made possible the war against Iran

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 08:53:16 -0400

HAMAS INTELLIGENCE BEFORE OCTOBER 2023 RECOMMENDED NOT TO ATTACK ISRAEL AT
THE TIME AND INSTEAD WAIT FOR THE COUNTRY TO FALL APART MORE
[Dr. Aaron Lerner - The Jewish People "owe" Yahya Sinwar for tipping the
first domino which lead to the destruction of Hezbollah which made possible
the war against Iran unfettered by fear of Hezbollah joining the fray with
hundreds of thousands of rockets and missiles.]

The July 2023 report ended with recommendations for exploiting the crisis in
Israel, particularly within the army, as a means to advance the vision of
"the destruction of Israel."

Their main recommendation was not to initiate a military confrontation but
rather to wait for the crisis to worsen and in the meantime to focus on
psychological warfare, including promoting the narrative of the collapse of
past Jewish political entities due to internal divisions and the failure of
Prime Minister Netanyahu to retrieve the bodies of the kidnapped soldiers
held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip

The Israeli protests against the judicial legislation as reflected in Hamas
documents
Published: 15/06/2025
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center
At the Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center
https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/the-israeli-protests-against-the-judici
al-legislation-as-reflected-in-hamas-documents/
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

There's a Plan For Fordo And It's Not "Yihyeh Bseder"

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 13:44:00 -0400

There's a Plan For Fordo And It's Not "Yihyeh Bseder"
Dr. Aaron Lerner 16 June 2025

When Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu held his first top-secret meeting of
his "Iran War Team," the neutralization of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant
(FFEP) was most certainly identified as a necessary condition for success.

Netanyahu didn't fill the room with a bunch of yes-men.

So even if he wanted to (and I genuinely don't think Netanyahu wanted to)
engage in wishful thinking, the independent members of the team wouldn't
abide by assuming that somehow Fordow would work out.

That somehow America would ultimately bomb Fordow with their most powerful
bunker busters.

And that the optimistic estimates that American bunker busters are
sufficient to do the job are correct.

To be clear:

Israel isn't picking targets from a target bank in some kind of tit-for-tat
with Iran.

We are following a schedule.

And somehow that plan does indeed address Fordow.

So it's time for all the retired generals and former intelligence heads now
sharing their wisdom on television panels to have a modicum of modesty.

They are clueless about what the plan is.

So they should think twice before proclaiming that we have no solution for
Fordow and should immediately abandon the operation.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

The Tragedy in Tamra: The House Had a Protected Room, But the Family's Daughters Likely Weren't in It When the Missile Struck

Sun, 15 Jun 2025 12:26:20 -0400

The Tragedy in Tamra: The House Had a Protected Room, But the Family's
Daughters Likely Weren't in It When the Missile Struck
By Eli Ashkenazi Walla News (Translation by IMRA)
Last updated: June 15, 2025 / 16:07
https://news.walla.co.il/item/375767

In the missile strike on the Khatib family's home in the city of Tamra, four
daughters of the family were killed, including Shada, a law student
considered gifted. The building met the required safety standards, but the
tragedy occurred when the family members were apparently not in the
protected room (Mamad) at the time of impact.

In the Khatib family's home in the city of Tamra, where four daughters of
the family were killed last night, there is a protected room (Mamad), but it
appears that the four victims were not inside it at the time the missile
struck their home.

The building houses the families of brothers Raja and Iyhab Khatib, both
well-known attorneys in the northern region, living one above the other. The
building is approximately ten years old, and both residential units were
constructed with protected rooms, as required. In general, the building
itself is made entirely of reinforced concrete rather than cinder blocks,
which grants it greater resistance to stress, earthquakes, and external
impacts. However, even a structure like this stood no chance of withstanding
a direct missile hit. Being inside the protected room, however, could have
saved lives.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il