IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Smotrich's Major Annexation Trumps Abraham Accords Allies

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 09:31:07 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Smotrich's Major Annexation Trumps Abraham Accords Allies
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 September 2025

With insider Amit Segal saying today that Dubai is more important than
annexation, it would appear that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has
decided to give a very strong kick sending the annexation "can" far down the
road (once again).

And while I also highly value and appreciate our relations with our Abraham
Accords allies, I am compelled to strongly differ with his conclusion.

I also appreciate that there is absolutely no certainty whatsoever who will
be in power in the Abraham Accord countries in a few years, let alone
decades, and their attitude towards the Jewish State.

Back in late August 1998 I spoke with Shimon Peres as he was making his way
out of the hall where he spoke:

"Mr. Peres," I asked, "I understand your hypothesis which relates peace to
economic prosperity which, in turn, keeps the fundamentalists at bay. But
what happens if, after Israel gives up strategic positions which it would
certainly need if it faced fundamentalist neighbors, through no fault of
Israel - there is some external economic shock and there is a recession in
the region. By your theory, the recession could very well bring the
fundamentalists to power?"

Peres replied with a smile: "I don't give answers to questions which I don't
have answers for."

We cannot afford to ignore this question.

We absolutely must not make policy decisions based on a perilously reckless
" ceteris paribus " assumption.

Things can change.

And that change can be dramatic.

And we may very well be unable to prevent it.

So, while it may be argued that the Abraham Accords and future diplomatic
advances which follow from it might somehow reduce the possibility of a
terrible development, it would be profoundly foolhardy to assume that it
would take this scenario off the table.

I believe that these concerns trump the potential damage which annexation
does to the Abraham Accords relationship.

Let me put this in the simplest of terms:

As long as a piece of territory isn't annexed, it is in the prime minister's
power to effectively cede Israeli control to that territory.

In sharp contrast, relinquishing annexed territory requires either the
support of 80 MKs or a national referendum.

The world can pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu and those who follow in his
position, to make snap moves relating to areas that have not been annexed.

Annexation, by effectively moving the decision from the prime minster to the
People, dramatically reduces the expectations of the world.

It is, in effect, a "backbone strengthening" our prime minister may very
well need one day.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Haredis Biggest Losers If Smotrich's Annexation Implemented

Sun, 07 Sep 2025 17:45:37 -0400

Haredis Biggest Losers If Smotrich's Annexation Implemented
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 September 2025

I am not going to speculate as to what combination of circumstances would
cause Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to have his Cabinet make a snap vote
for a massive annexation which would make a Palestinian state impossible.

I am, however, certain that master politician Netanyahu is well aware that
such a move would dramatically change the dynamics of Israeli politics.

Ever since Oslo, the non-Haredi members of national camp coalitions
justified concessions to the Haredis on the grounds that their participation
was required to have ruling coalitions which truly oppose a Palestinian
state.

But while a ruling coalition can unilaterally make all kinds of concessions
with land that hasn't been annexed, a national referendum or the approval of
80 MKs would be required to roll back any annexation.

So the Palestinian State "bogeyman" wouldn't play a role in post-annexation
elections or coalition building.

Social welfare issues would.

And it is difficult to predict what new voting blocs would coalesce.

I would note, for example, that within the Likud it seems that many of the
rank and file members favor government intervention in housing more than the
leadership does.

Bottom line: Netanyahu wouldn't actually implement annexation for a
short-lived political gain. It would have to be because, as was the case
with the critical decisions he made vis-à-vis Iran and the beepers, he was
compelled to act in order to serve vital national interests.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Smotrich's Annexation - Hundreds of Thousands of Arab Residents -Good Move

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 11:57:22 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Smotrich's Annexation - Hundreds of Thousands of Arab Residents -Good Move
Dr. Aaron Lerner 4 September 2025

First some basics:

Ordinance Law and Administration, 1948
...
11B The law, jurisdiction and administration of the State shall apply to any area of the Land of Israel that the Government sets in an order.

So the Cabinet meets and votes and its over.

Whatever territory is marked on the map as designated for annexation would be annexed in a single cabinet vote.

And that vote could take place without it even being on the agenda for the meeting if no minister objects so it could be done literally with absolutely no advance warning.

There is a rich history of court cases establishing that a "resident" of Israel is someone whose "center of life" is in Israel.

So the moment that the Cabinet votes to annex an area, any Arab who was living in that area at the moment whose "center of life" is that location would be a resident of Israel.

Here is a link to 1.13.0001 issued by the Population and Immigration Authority with guidelines for establishing if Israel is someone's "center of life".

https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/policy/policy_determining_center_of_life/he/1.13.0001.pdf

So all the Arabs present in the annexed area at the time of annexation who permanently resided in the annexed area would be Israeli residents.

That would give them the right to live anywhere in Israel and also the right to all of our social welfare services as well as all the tax obligations.

They could also get a laissez passer for travelling overseas.

They also would qualify to apply for Israeli citizenship so that they could participate in the national elections either as a voter or a candidate.

What does Minister Smotrich's annexation map include?

The map annexes all but some tightly delineated major cities.

I say "tightly delineated" because we annex many industrial areas which are adjacent to cities.

For example, it would appear from the map that the fantastic modern factories in the Hebron area become Israeli factories.

Bethlehem is also annexed, which is great news for Christians and for tourism in general.

Kalkiliya, which is a stone's throw from Kfar Sava and borders on our vital Route 6 toll road is also annexed.

Minister Smotrich indeed set a goal of maximum territory with minimum population.

But that "minimum" is hundreds of thousands of people who might shake their fists in public over the move while quietly celebrating their good fortune behind closed doors.

Celebrating the opportunity for a great life - while we celebrate that we have the space in Israel for our projected 20 million in 2065.

This is indeed a bold move.

And the right move for our future.

Just as we managed when we added a substantial Arab population when we annexed eastern Jerusalem so too can do this today.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Employ Disarmed Terrorists in North - not South - Lebanon!

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:13:26 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Employ Disarmed Terrorists in North - not South -
Lebanon!
Dr. Aaron Lerner 28 August 2025

It is going to take years to clear southern Lebanon from extensive war
damage. Almost all the buildings have been destroyed so housing is
extremely limited and the agricultural land is strewn with debris and even
some unexploded ordnance so that employment in agriculture is also
irrelevant.

Despite this , Trump envoy Tom Barrack announced plans this week to finance
the deployment of Hezbollah forces, ostensibly sans weapons, on Israel's
border in a jobs program.

And please, don't claim that they will be employed in innocent civilian
construction.

Because if Hezbollah is paid to rebuild South Lebanon it will be child's
play for them to exploit the opportunity to embed military structures within
the ostensibly civilian buildings.

This is a reckless half-baked idea.

Where is Secretary of Sate Marco Rubio's team?

"I want the Department of State to have the best ideas and the best options
available for the President...we want to be at the core of how we formulate
foreign policy, because we're going to have the best ideas of any agency..."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Remarks to Employees 21 January 2025

Want a jobs program for disarmed terrorists?

Offer it hundreds of kilometers away in Sunni dominated northern Lebanon.

There are Shia communities in this area, which was barely touched by the
war.

And while unemployment now is high in that region, a properly funded jobs
program for disarmed terrorists could have an economic spillover effect to
the benefit of the Sunni majority.

A real jobs program in the north could be implemented quickly.

A jobs program for terrorists on Israel's border would essentially keep this
terrorist force intact to threaten the Jewish state.

Secretary Rubio - why isn't your team pushing an alternative?

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Reaction To E-1 Indicates No Tsunami in September

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 10:59:23 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Reaction To E-1 Indicates No Tsunami in September

Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 August 2025

While Two State Solution zealots are drooling over the prospects that various nations plan to join the 147 countries which already recognize a sovereign Palestinians state in September, the reaction to E-1 building plans indicates that the world understands that such action is meaningless without Israel’s consent.

There won’t be a tsunami in September.

That’s not to say that we should be complacent.

Germany’s surprise arms embargo serves as an important warning.

Political developments in the USA also send a clear message.

We have a window now of less than four years to reach defense independence.

That doesn’t mean being able to manufacture domestically every piece of equipment we now import.

It means thinking out of the box to deploy Israeli technology and production which can address Israel’s defense needs.

Elbit’s project to produce a portfolio of airborne lasers fits into such a program (if we don’t make the mistake of having some parts made overseas).

I want to be painfully clear about this: Even if we were remove the Jews from all of Judea and Samaria and even the Jewish Quarter of Jerusalem, the inevitable tension between what’s left of the Jewish State and a sovereign Palestinian State, inhabited by a population brainwashed for two generation by our PA “peace partner” to destroy us, could lead to an arms embargo.

Do not underrate the radicals who protested in the streets of America and Europe in support of Hamas.

Some of them already were White House staffers in the Biden administration and if things go wrong one of their supporters may be sitting in the White House.

So the good news is that we can stop the actual creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

The bad news is that, regardless of how things turn out in the short run, that we need to embark on an intensive defense independence program.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Leaders Must Explicitly Restore Balance - Hostage Driven Distortion Disaster Now

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 18:11:53 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Leaders Must Explicitly Restore Balance - Hostage Driven Distortion Disaster Now
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 August 2025

"…30. It is important to note that if the social ethos were indeed such that the majority of the public believed that it was right to pay any price to release a kidnapped soldier, this would raise a significant question mark regarding Israel's ability to survive in the area in which it is located.
Chapter Fifteen • Kidnappings as a Strategic Threat
Committee to Examine the Events of the 2006 Lebanon Campaign - Winograd Commission - Second Lebanon War - Final Report Volume I
Shevat 5768 January 2008

When the Winograd Commission made this warning almost 17 years ago, the "price" our enemies charged for releasing hostages was the release of terrorists.

Today the "cost" embraced by well-meaning but profoundly shortsighted "deal at any cost" Israelis is to provide Hamas the opportunity, from Gaza, to serve as the bridgehead in an apocalyptic war involving forces and nations who identities we are unable to accurately predict today.

My best guess is that the Israelis striking next week won't have the power, despite the heavy media support, to give Hamas a victory.

But I fear that they may succeed, given the orientation of the IDF COS, to impact how our war against Hamas continues, in ways that will cost us dearly.

In anticipation of IDF rules of engagement geared to rule out the possibility of wounding hostages, Hamas has prepared traps and developed methods of operation which will kill and wound many hundreds - if not more -of our soldiers in Gaza.

Don't be surprised to find fresh hostages taken thanks to our handicapped rules of engagement.

And its not just our casualties.

Instead of a brutally quick end to the Gaza war we could readily find ourselves creeping along at a pace which loses President Trump's support for the endeavor.

This week Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that the elected government - not the military - sets policy.

I hope and pray that Mr. Netanyahu has the will to set the policy that our soldiers, and their victory, has top priority.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il