IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Painful Reality: Only Israel Can Determine Hamas

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 19:50:00 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Painful Reality: Only Israel Can Determine Hamas
Compliance
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 October 2025

A reminder:

Congress made aid to the PA contingent on PA compliance with Oslo:

"Public Law 103-125 103d Congress
An Act Entitled the "Middle East Peace Facilitation Act of 1993".
...
(2) PRESIDENTIAL CERTIFICATION. - The President may exercise the authority
provided in subsection (a) only if the President certifies to the relevant
congressional committees that -
(A) it is in the national interest of the United States to exercise such
authority; and
(B) the Palestine Liberation Organization continues to abide by all the
commitments described in paragraph (4).

(3) REQUIREMENT FOR CONTINUING PLO COMPLIANCE. - Any suspension under
subsection (a) of a provision of law specified in subsection (d) shall cease
to be effective if the President certifies to the relevant congressional
committees that the Palestine Liberation Organization has not continued to
abide by all the commitments described in paragraph (4).

(4) PLO COMMITMENTS DESCRIBED.-The commitments referred to in paragraphs (2)
and (3) are the commitments made by the Palestine Liberation Organization -

(A) in its letter of September 9, 1993, to the Prime Minister of Israel;
(B) in its letter of September 9, 1993, to the Foreign Minister of Norway;
and
(C) in, and resulting from the implementation of, the Declaration of
Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements signed on September
13,1993. "

So for years the President of the United States of America dutifully
certified PA compliance even though the PA never actually complied.

Let's look at the structure of President Trump's deal for Gaza:

"...As the I.S.F.[International Stabilization Force] establishes control
and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (I.D.F.) will withdraw based on
standards, milestones, and time frames linked to demilitarization that will
be agreed upon between the I.D.F., I.S.F., the guarantors, and the United
States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to
Israel, Egypt, or its citizens. Practically, the I.D.F. will progressively
hand over the Gaza territory it occupies to the ISF according to an
agreement they will make with the transitional authority until they are
withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for a security perimeter presence that
will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat."

The problem is that even if there are absolutely fantastic "standards" and
"milestones" we have already learned from the implementation of the "Middle
East Peace Facilitation Act of 1993" that even the United States of America
cannot be relied upon to tell the truth about Palestinian compliance when it
is inconvenient.

It would appear that the only way for there to be true compliance in this
deal is if Israel has the final say as to if standards and milestones were
met.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

President Trump: We Accepted & Your Arab Partners Endorsed The Plan As Is - No Changes Now

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 16:53:15 -0400

President Trump: We Accepted & Your Arab Partners Endorsed The Plan As Is -
No Changes Now
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 October 2025

Dear President Trump,

It was not easy for our Prime Minister to agree to your plan.

But he did.

And after he accepted the deal and the TEXT of the deal was published the
leaders of the Arab world ENDORSED THE DEAL ISRAEL ACCEPTED.

Now Hamas is trying to CHANGE the deal and there's talk that you will
pressure BOTH sides to compromise.

We compromised by ACCEPTING the deal.

The ball is in Hamas's court to ACCEPT THE DEAL AS IT IS.

If you truly want to bring an end to a conflict which you believe started
3,000 years ago when Saul became the first king of the Jewish People then
there's a lot of deals to make after this one.

Don't set the precedent now that when you get us to make compromises to
agree to a deal that this becomes no more than the opening offer for
negotiations with the other side.
_______________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

PCPO poll: 29.3% reject gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza 33.7% oppose removing Hamas and destroying its military infrastructure

Sun, 05 Oct 2025 08:00:46 -0400

PCPO poll: 29.3% reject gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza 33.7% oppose
removing Hamas and destroying its military infrastructure
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) – Poll No. 214
Date Published: October 4, 2025
Fieldwork: September 28 – October 3, 2025
Respondents: 304 Palestinian adults (West Bank and Gaza Strip)
Margin of Error: ±5.6% at 95% confidence level
Director: Dr. Nabil Kukali
http://www.pcpo.org

1. How do Palestinians view the Trump Plan?

Very positive – 13.2%

Somewhat positive – 54.9%

Negative – 28.3%

Did not specify – 3.6%

2. Attitudes toward a Comprehensive Ceasefire

Strongly support – 73.4%

Support to some extent – 14.1%

Oppose – 11.5%

Don’t know / not interested – 1.0%

3. Do Palestinians support the idea of a gradual Israeli withdrawal from
Gaza?

Practical step – 48.0%

Partial support – 20.4%

Impractical – 29.3%

Don’t know – 2.3%

4. Who should administer Gaza during the transitional phase?

Palestinian Authority – 43.8%

Multilateral civil administration (Arab or international) – 31.6%

The current situation (status quo) – 11.5%

Undecided – 13.2%

5. What is your opinion about the deployment of multinational forces in
Gaza?

Strongly support – 21.4%

Support partially – 28.3%

Oppose – 45.7%

No opinion – 4.6%

6. Do you support excluding Hamas from any future civil administration?

Yes, support exclusion – 34.5%

No, oppose exclusion – 23.0%

Possible under certain conditions – 35.5%

Declined to answer – 6.9%

7. Who should bear the responsibility for funding the reconstruction of
Gaza?

International community (UN, EU, US) – 43.8%

Arab and Islamic states – 28.3%

Israel (as the occupying power) – 26.0%

Did not specify – 2.0%

8. Assessment of the clause releasing Israeli hostages

Very necessary – 48.0%

Important but not a priority – 27.6%

Unnecessary – 19.4%

Unsure – 4.9%

9. Inclusion of Palestinian prisoners in the plan

Must be included as a core clause – 74.0%

Can be discussed later – 14.1%

Should not be a priority – 8.9%

Don’t know – 3.0%

10. What is the best way to handle the prisoners’ issue?

Comprehensive prisoner exchange – 46.7%

Mass release of prisoners – 45.4%

Improving detention conditions – 5.6%

Unsure – 2.3%

11. Do Palestinians have confidence in the Trump administration’s ability to
impose the plan?

Strong confidence – 36.5%

Partial confidence – 24.0%

Distrust – 35.2%

No clear view – 4.3%

12. Will the plan result in permanent or temporary peace?

Temporary peace – 50.3%

Permanent peace – 25.3%

Will not bring peace – 21.7%

Did not specify – 2.6%

13. What is your opinion about appointing Tony Blair for the interim
management of Gaza?

Would never be implemented – 58.8%

Could become a reality – 16.1%

Practical option – 12.5%

Don’t know – 12.5%

14. Acceptance of the idea of an international transitional authority

Reject outright – 59.9%

Accept as a transitional necessity – 19.7%

Welcome if transparent and fair – 16.8%

Unsure – 3.6%

15. Evaluation of choosing Tony Blair for this role

Unsuitable – 53.8%

Might be acceptable if time-limited – 32.3%

Suitable choice – 6.1%

No opinion – 7.9%

16. What is the main purpose of the proposal?

To protect Israeli interests – 51.3%

To establish a temporary political settlement – 25.8%

To improve the humanitarian situation – 17.2%

Don’t know – 5.7%

17. What is your opinion about including Bishara Bahbah in the plan?

Rejected – 52.6%

Supported under conditions – 26.1%

Strongly supported – 11.6%

No opinion – 9.6%

18. Do you have confidence in Trump’s promise not to annex the West Bank?

Symbolic only – 65.9%

Will be carried out – 15.7%

Might be partially implemented – 14.5%

Don’t know – 4.0%

19. Evaluation of the clause releasing prisoners

Insufficient – 52.6%

Positive but temporary – 31.3%

Fair – 12.9%

Don’t know – 3.2%

20. Is allowing 600 aid trucks daily sufficient?

Not enough – 55.0%

Temporary measure – 28.9%

Sufficient – 13.7%

Don’t know – 2.4%

21. Trust in the mechanism of aid distribution through the UN and Red
Crescent

Trust – 56.2%

Do not trust – 24.1%

Trust only under Palestinian supervision – 16.5%

No knowledge – 3.2%

22. Assessment of Trump’s phrase “intense and fruitful”

Political publicity – 39.0%

Indicator of progress – 28.5%

Reflects Israeli and Hamas reactions – 29.7%

Don’t know – 2.8%

23. Is the success of the plan linked to Trump’s ability to apply pressure?

Very strong link – 43.8%

Exists partially – 22.9%

He lacks ability – 29.7%

Don’t know – 3.6%

24. What is your opinion about removing Hamas and destroying its military
infrastructure?

Reject – 33.7%

Support – 30.5%

Accept if a legitimate Palestinian alternative exists – 26.9%

Unsure – 8.8%

25. Do you support regional security guarantees?

Support – 42.2%

Oppose – 22.9%

Support if provided by Arab countries – 26.5%

Don’t know – 8.4%

26. What do you think about deploying an international stabilization force
to train police?

Agree – 49.0%

Oppose – 18.5%

Support if Arab or Islamic – 25.7%

Don’t know – 6.8%

27. Position on Netanyahu’s statement (isolating Hamas and excluding a
Palestinian state)

Strongly reject – 56.3%

Partially reject – 8.2%

Neutral – 20.8%

Support to varying degrees – 8.7%

Don’t know – 6.0%

28. What advice should be given to Hamas regarding Trump’s plan?

Accept conditionally with substantial amendments – 36.3%

Accept as it is – 29.0%

Oppose accepting it outright – 25.8%

Don’t know – 8.9%

29. Which amendment introduced by Netanyahu is the most dangerous?

All amendments – 37.4%

Keeping Israeli forces inside Gaza – 22.8%

Linking withdrawal to disarming Hamas – 20.3%

Reducing clarity on aid – 10.6%

Refusal to release Palestinian leaders – 8.9%

30. How do Palestinians evaluate Israeli amendments to Trump’s plan?

Political maneuvers – 61.8%

Betrayal of the plan’s essence – 17.9%

Legitimate security concerns – 7.3%

Don’t know – 13.0%

31. What is the most important amendment proposed by Palestinian factions?

International guarantees to stop the war after hostages’ release – 36.5%

Delaying renunciation of arms – 23.8%

All points – 23.8%

Keeping Palestinian leaders – 7.9%

Don’t know – 7.9%

32. How optimistic are Palestinians about their political future?

Not optimistic – 44.7%

Somewhat optimistic – 39.5%

Very optimistic – 13.2%

Don’t know – 2.6%

Demographic Characteristics of the Sample

Men – 57.9%

Women – 42.1%

West Bank – 61.2%

Gaza Strip – 38.8%

East Jerusalem – 0.7%

Average age – 35 years (range 18–75)
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Hamas can report locations of bodies - no need for delays

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 11:20:00 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Hamas can report locations of bodies - no need for delays
Dr. Aaron Lerner 3 October 2025

Hamas says they need time to dig out some of the bodies of Israeli hostages.

Lame excuse.

They can tell us where to dig and leave the area and we will take care of
it.

As for disarming, there's an extremely simple principle to immediately
institute: the Gaza Strip is a "long gun free zone" for all but IDF forces.

If you are spotted by any means (for example armed drones)with a long gun
(rifle, shotgun, carbine, etc.) you are killed.

That's not to say that Hamas members can retain handguns - disarmed is
disarmed.

But removing long arms rifles from the area dramatically reduces that need
for any kind of firepower for protection.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Hamas sees Spanish and Turkish support for the Global Samud Flotilla As Sign They Can Continue Hard Line

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 15:49:44 -0400

Hamas sees Spanish and Turkish support for the Global Samud Flotilla
As Sign They Can Continue Hard Line
Dr. Aaron Lerner 30 September 2025

None of the world leaders who voiced their support for President Trump's
Gaza peace plan have changed their attitude towards the Global Samud
Flotilla, a collection of some 50 boats slated to approach Gaza soon.

The governments of Italy, Spain and Turkey are all actively participating in
providing support for the flotilla - though Italy says its stopping at 150 nautical miles from the coast.

These countries could have told the flotilla leadership last night that, In
the wake of Israel's acceptance of President Trump's proposal, they were completely withdrawing their support and urged the flotilla to accept the proposal to unload their aid in Cyprus to be delivered from there to Gaza via the
established channels.

That would have sent a message to Hamas that the tide has turned against
them.

Continued support for the flotilla also sends a message to Hamas.

A very destructive one.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Abraham Accords Crumbles After First Arab Peacekeeper Killed In Gaza

Sat, 27 Sep 2025 13:31:16 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Abraham Accords Crumbles After First Arab Peacekeeper
Killed In Gaza
Dr. Aaron Lerner 27 September 2025

So there's a peacekeeping force composed of well-trained and disciplined
soldiers from the most elite hand-picked forces in the Arab world.

Unlike the Egyptian forces on the border with Gaza, no amount of money in
the world can cause these "best of the best" to aid - or for that matter
ignore - activities by the terror groups in Gaza to prepare (weapons,
training, etc.) and/or launch attacks against Israel.

That's the best-case scenario for the American plan.

But there's no magic incantation to destroy the hundreds of kilometers of
terror tunnels that have yet to be demolished.

We haven't even detected all of them yet.

And pretty much every building yet to be demolished in Gaza is chock-a-block
with weapons and ammunition.

Add to that that the terrorists have certainly demonstrated a flair for
public relations.

So it won't take long for Israel to find itself blamed for the death of
members of this elite Arab force in the Gaza Strip.

I intentionally use the word "blamed" instead of "responsible" because we
don't have to be involved in the incident.

We will challenge whether the gory videos prove Israeli involvement, but it
won't matter.

The leaders of the countries mourning their dead soldiers would then have to
choose between leaving the Abraham Accords or standing fast with the very
real possibility that as they lose more soldiers in Gaza that they are
overthrown in a popular revolution led by a disgruntled army which was
compelled to participate in this fiasco.

I don't know who came up with the idea to send Arabs into the Gaza Strip as
peacekeepers.

It is a profoundly terrible idea.

Drop it.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il