IMRA Middle East News Updates

FW: Weekly Commentary: Hostage Families Mentally Tortured By False Claims Politics Blocks Deal

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 13:28:34 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Hostage Families Mentally Tortured By False Claims
Politics Blocks Deal

Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 December 2024

My heart goes out to the families of the hostages every time I hear someone
proclaim that the hostages aren't free because of political considerations.

It is perhaps the ultimate form of mental torture possible in the Jewish
State.

Let us be clear:

I do not think that the ostensibly knowledgeable people who assert that
Israel should acquiesce to any and every Hamas demand are driven by some
political motivation or scheme.

I do think that they are terribly wrong and that the fact that they support
this position raises serious doubts regarding their analytical skills.

By the same token, I can accept that these "deal at any price" advocates may
think that those opposing a deal at any price are terribly wrong in their
analysis.

But this is a genuine policy dispute, not an argument between one group
possessing an absolute truth and evil politicians only interested in staying
in power.

I am not for a moment going to claim that the families of hostages would
find solace knowing that the leaders of Israel who reject a deal at any
price do so out of legitimate considerations.

Nonetheless, I maintain that it is immeasurably more painful to think that
their loved one may ultimately die because of politics rather than policy.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Bernard Lewis Warned Iran Seeks Nukes For Apocalypse - Not Deterrence

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 08:27:29 -0500

Bernard Lewis Warned Iran Seeks Nukes For Apocalypse - Not Deterrence
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 December 2024

"mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the
Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general
destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the
dead - hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with
this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement."
Bernard Lewis - The Wall Street Journal Aug. 8, 2006

Almost all of the talking heads speculating if Iran will now rush for a nuke
see such a move within the context of an Iranian desire to use nukes deter
regime change.

Unfortunately, these analysts simply cannot comprehend that Iranian Twelvers
could actually welcome an apocalypse set into motion by an Iranian nuclear
strike and the response that would follow. Without saying it explicitly,
they are arguing that there is some set of universal values that has some
kind of veto power over belief systems when adhering to those beliefs can
have unsavory results when judged by these "universal values".

This is not an inconsequential academic disagreement.

The attitude of policy makers and analysts towards the threat of a nuclear
Iran would be radically different if they thought that there was even a 25%
chance that Bernard Lewis is correct.

I daresay that if they gave Bernard Lewis the weight his opinion deserves
that we would have already "pulled the trigger" on a massive operation long
ago.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

COS Blocked PM Netanyahu's Appointment of New Military Secretary Before War Because Disagreed On Policy

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 06:42:56 -0500

COS Blocked PM Netanyahu's Appointment of New Military Secretary Before War
Because Disagreed On Policy
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 December 2024

Roni Kuban and Omri Assenheim Kan11 10:22 December 12, 2024 report
(translation of the report)
https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/local/835350/

Brigadier General (Res.) Ofer Winter revealed in an exclusive interview for
the show "It Will Be Fine" with Roni Kuban and Omri Assenheim that the Chief
of Staff opposed appointing him as the Prime Minister's military advisor,
despite a request made by Netanyahu.

Winter attacked: "If I were the Prime Minister -- his head would roll. Who
do you think you are, you insolent man? Who are you?"

The full interview airs Sunday at 21:30 on Kan 11.

"Five days before the war, the Chief of Staff tells me: 'The Prime Minister
is requesting you for the position of his military secretary. I think you
are unsuitable. I ask that you retire, and besides, I believe the Prime
Minister's request is not relevant.' If I were the Prime Minister, his head
would roll. Who are you to say such things, you insolent man? Who are you?
You're confused! You're a confused Chief of Staff, subordinate to the Prime
Minister and the political echelon. Who do you think you are?" Winter
revealed.

The Prime Minister's office issued a statement following the report:

"If Brigadier General Ofer Winter's claims are indeed true, this is a
serious matter. In a democratic country, the Chief of Staff is subordinate
to the political echelon and should keep his political or personal opinions
to himself."

The Chief of Staff denied Winter's claims:

"These statements were never made. The meeting in question is documented in
the Chief of Staff's office."
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Radical 1st Reading Text Of MK Immunity Law Repeats Critical Error

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 17:13:20 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Radical 1st Reading Text Of MK Immunity Law Repeats Critical Error
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 December 2024

"...he (Justice Minister Levin) did not intend for his plan to pass in its maximalist version, and he admitted that he planted many bargaining chips in it.... With the passage of time, his spirit darkened and he expressed to his interlocutors authentic frustration at the feeling that there was no one to talk to on the other side."
Hilo Glazer Haaretz Supplement 5.5.2023

Those radical "bargaining chips" in the judicial reform legislation certainly backfired.

So I am scratching my head trying to figure out why in the world the ruling coalition passed the first reading of an immunity law with the craziest wording I have ever seen.

Here is a translation:

Proposed Law: Immunity of Knesset Members, Their Rights and Obligations (Amendment – Knesset Approval for Initiating Criminal or Civil Proceedings), 5784–2024
Initiator: Knesset Member Tali Gottlieb

Amendment to Section 1
1. In the Immunity of Knesset Members, Their Rights and Obligations Law, 5711–1951, in Section 1, after subsection (a1), the following shall be added:
“(a2) No criminal investigation shall be initiated against a Knesset member, and no court shall hear a civil lawsuit against a Knesset member, unless the Knesset, by a majority of 90 of its members, determines that the act for which the investigation was requested or the lawsuit was filed was not performed in the course of fulfilling the member’s duties or for the purpose of fulfilling the member’s duties. This provision shall not apply to a criminal investigation regarding an offense under the provisions of Section 284 and Chapter Nine, Part E of the Penal Law, 5737–1977.”
===

So while the law does not apply to: Section 284 of the Penal Law (Breach of Trust by a Public Servant) and Chapter Nine, Part E of the Penal Law (Offenses of Bribery), it does grants immunity for MKs who murder, steal and more as long as there aren't 90 MKs willing to vote to strip the MK of the MK's immunity.

Dear Reader: I've written against this crazy law in Hebrew and had misgivings about sharing news of this incredibly wrong legislation in English.

On the other hand, I wanted to share my take on this law before others did.

This terrible law is an example of how the practice of having "bargaining chips" in legislation can get out of hand.

I was hoping that after the judicial reform debacle, our legislators would be more careful.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Please Share With Trump Team: Transfer Al-Aqsa To Saudi Control

Sat, 07 Dec 2024 14:07:37 -0500

Please Share With Trump Team: Transfer Al-Aqsa To Saudi Control
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 December 2024

Dear Reader: If you have connections with anyone in the Trump team, I urge
you to share this message with them..

"Al Aqsa Is In Danger" is the rallying cry for those seeking to destroy the
Jewish State.

Transferring custodianship of the Al-Aqsa Mosque to the Saudis, as detailed
below, would silence that call in much of the Sunni world. A world getting
ever stronger as developments in Syria now illustrate.

After all, if the Saudis realize their dream of adding Al-Aqsa to the two
holiest sites of Islam already under their control, it would be an INSULT TO
THE SAUDIS to continue with the claim that "Al Aqsa Is In Danger"!

It's time to think out of the box for a dramatic development which both
enhances regional stability and facilitates Saudi diplomatic recognition of
Israel without this being tied to measures toward the establishment of a
sovereign Palestinian state.
#########
Proposal: Transferring Custodianship of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the
Rock to Saudi Arabia

Introduction

The custodianship of the Haram al-Sharif, encompassing the Al-Aqsa Mosque
and Dome of the Rock, has traditionally been managed by the Jordanian Waqf.
However, Saudi Arabia's aspiration to oversee Islamic holy sites offers an
opportunity to address regional tensions, improve security, and redefine the
boundaries of the site. This transition could benefit all stakeholders by
enhancing management practices, depoliticizing the site, and introducing
clarity on the status of its various areas. Importantly, a Saudi-led
custodianship could also accommodate Jewish religious needs by recognizing
that the broader plaza is distinct from the mosque itself, opening
possibilities for shared use.

Advantages of Saudi Custodianship

1. Enhanced Security and Transparency:
. Saudi Arabia's experience managing the Two Holy Mosques
(Mecca and Medina) demonstrates its ability to implement state-of-the-art
security measures, including 24/7 video surveillance, crowd control, and
AI-based monitoring.
. These measures would reduce incitement and ensure public
safety, with live broadcasts increasing transparency.
2. Depoliticization of the Site:
. Unlike Jordan, Saudi Arabia is less aligned with Palestinian
factions and could better manage the site as a religious, rather than
political, entity.
. This approach minimizes the potential for the site to serve
as a platform for incitement or conflict.
3. Delineating Sacred and Non-Sacred Areas:
. Saudi custodianship could formally distinguish between:
. Sacred areas: The Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock
structures, which remain exclusively under Saudi management for Islamic
worship.
. Non-sacred areas: The broader plaza, which is not part of
the mosque itself but a general-use area.
. This distinction allows for Jewish prayer and structures in
the plaza without conflicting with Islamic religious rules, as the plaza
would not be considered part of the mosque.
4. Opportunity for Jewish Prayer and a Synagogue:
. By redefining the non-sacred plaza as a shared space, Jewish
religious activities, including prayer, would be acceptable without
violating Islamic sensibilities.
. The establishment of a Jewish structure, such as a synagogue
in the plaza, could be accommodated as it would not infringe on the sanctity
of the mosque.
5. Saudi Leadership and Influence:
. Custodianship would reinforce Saudi Arabia's position as a
leader in the Muslim world and a stabilizing force in the region, enhancing
its credibility in managing interfaith coexistence.

Proposed Framework for Custodianship Transition

1. Redefining Boundaries

. The Haram al-Sharif would be divided into:
1. Sacred Areas:
. The physical Al-Aqsa Mosque building and the Dome of the
Rock would remain exclusively Islamic spaces, managed by Saudi Arabia.
2. Non-Sacred Areas:
. The surrounding plaza, which has been used for recreational
activities and general access, would be designated as a shared-use space.
. This designation would allow for Jewish prayer and
potentially the construction of a synagogue or other Jewish religious
structures without conflicting with Islamic custodianship of the sacred
areas.

2. Compensation for Jordan

Saudi Arabia could offer a comprehensive compensation package to ensure
Jordan's support for the transition:

a. Financial Aid and Investment

1. Direct Aid:
. A multi-year aid package to support Jordan's economy, such
as $1 billion over five years.
2. Debt Relief:
. Assistance in restructuring or paying off Jordan's national
debt.
3. GCC Integration:
. Support Jordan's deeper integration into the Gulf
Cooperation Council, including economic and trade benefits.

b. Symbolic and Religious Recognition

1. Honorary Role:
. Jordan retains the title of "Guardian of Jerusalem's Islamic
Holy Sites", preserving its historical connection.
2. Joint Oversight:
. Establish a Saudi-Jordanian council to oversee cultural and
restoration projects, ensuring Jordan maintains a visible role.

3. Security and Management by Saudi Arabia

. Saudi Arabia would implement advanced security measures,
including:
. 24/7 video surveillance and live broadcasting to increase
transparency and prevent unrest.
. Clear policies for shared use of the plaza to avoid
conflicts between Muslim and Jewish visitors.
. Coordination with Israeli security forces to ensure smooth
operations.

4. Religious and Cultural Access

. Jewish and non-Muslim visitors would have guaranteed access
to the non-sacred plaza areas, where religious activities, including Jewish
prayer, would be permitted.
. The establishment of a synagogue within the non-sacred area
could symbolize interfaith coexistence without infringing on the sanctity of
the mosque or Dome of the Rock.

Implementation Steps

1. Negotiations:
. Conduct trilateral negotiations involving Saudi Arabia,
Jordan, and Israel to finalize the transition framework.
2. Boundary Mapping:
. Use Saudi leadership to clearly delineate the sacred and
non-sacred areas, ensuring shared use is acceptable under Islamic law.
3. Security Deployment:
. Implement Saudi-led security protocols, including monitoring
systems and crowd control measures.
4. Compensation Rollout:
. Begin disbursing financial and symbolic benefits to Jordan
as part of the agreement.
5. Public Announcement:
. Frame the transition as a step toward improving the
management and accessibility of the holy sites for all faiths, with Saudi
Arabia emphasizing its commitment to interfaith harmony.

Conclusion

Transferring custodianship of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock to
Saudi Arabia offers a unique opportunity to enhance security, depoliticize
the site, and redefine its boundaries to enable shared use. By
distinguishing sacred areas from the broader plaza, Jewish prayer and even a
synagogue could be accommodated without violating Islamic rules. A robust
compensation package for Jordan ensures its agreement and preserves its
symbolic connection to the holy sites. With careful negotiation, this
proposal could strengthen regional stability, foster interfaith coexistence,
and solidify Saudi Arabia's leadership in the Muslim world.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Unity Required to Save Israel From Hareidi Party Blackmail

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 19:19:58 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Unity Required to Save Israel From Hareidi Party
Blackmail
Dr. Aaron Lerner
4 December 2024

The Haredi paper Mishpacha reports that Yahadut Hatorah is planning to
submit two bills to the Knesset: a "draft law," which would be more
appropriately labeled a "haredi draft exemption law," and a law to dissolve
the Knesset.

Both laws are set to proceed to the third and final vote, with the threat
that if the ruling coalition doesn't support the draft exemption law, the
Haredi MKs will join the opposition during the third and final vote to
dissolve the Knesset, triggering elections 90 days later.

There are three options:

Option #1: The ruling coalition gives in to the Haredi blackmail and passes
the Haredi draft-exemption law.
If the blackmail succeeds, the Haredi MKs will then be expected by their
constituents to protect Haredim who choose a life of poverty from the
increases in national insurance and municipal tax rates scheduled to take
effect in January. It can also be anticipated that arrangements will be made
to allow Haredi educational institutions to continue operating without
serious financial or academic oversight.

Option #2: Elections.
A caretaker government would be in place during a critical window of
international upheaval, as well as the first months of the Trump
Administration.

Option #3: An Emergency Zionist Government to serve until the 27 October
2026 elections.
An Emergency Zionist Government composed of the Zionist parties would
legislate and implement the dramatic reform policies needed to ensure
Israel's future.
The coalition's goal would be to end the system of support for able-bodied
men who choose poverty and to eliminate financial support for educational
institutions (up to high school) that fail to provide students with the
basic education needed to participate productively in the Israeli economy.
Regarding IDF service, no new Draft Law would be enacted, leaving the matter
in the hands of the IDF.

Option #1 would be a disaster for the country.
Option #2 would be a loss.
Option #3 would secure our future.

My fervent hope is that Zionist party leaders seize the opportunity created
by this Haredi blackmail to pursue Option #3.

If this were to transpire, then, as the Tannaic sage Nachum Ish Gamzu said,
"This too is for the good."

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il