IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Challenge - Balancing Rights Against Fighting Crime

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 10:02:23 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Challenge - Balancing Rights Against Fighting Crime
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 February 2026

We have a disaster in our Moslem-Arab sector.

The murder rate is climbing as women are killed by family members while others die in endless rounds of revenge killings and more.

Organized crime is incredibly powerful and violent.

And the police are working blind since cooperating with them means endangering one's extended family.

As citizens we have the right to our privacy,

We shouldn't be subject to surveillance without a court order based on evidence.

Ditto for a search of our homes and many other measures.

But sometimes in an emergency situation these rights need to be compromised.

We have already taken some steps but we are far from the scope that's needed to succeed.

"Emergency situation" is a dangerous designation.

We have some "emergency situations" in place for many decades.

To safeguard against this, if we take the measures which are needed, they should be limited to a specific period of time and require a supermajority Knesset vote (e.g., 70 members) for a one-time extension, and an even higher threshold (e.g., 80 members) for any further renewals. This sunset clause ensures the powers remain temporary, preventing mission creep while allowing evaluation of results.

It would be fantastic if there was another way.

But if there isn't, we owe it to everyone to be bold enough to act.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Weekly Commentary: Hail the Brave Iranian Protestors

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 09:37:57 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Hail the Brave Iranian Protestors
Dr. Aaron Lerner
6 February 2026

I'm not going to waste your time speculating about whether the Iranians are really making fools out of President Trump's negotiating team or whether America is playing the fool to buy time to get everything in place for a truly decisive military operation.

I feel compelled, however, to join in praising the brave Iranian protestors who knowingly chose to risk their very lives when they took to the streets to oppose the monstrous Iranian regime.

And the equally brave medical personnel who risked their lives treating wounded protestors.

These brave Iranians continued to be mowed down as they heeded the words of encouragement of President Trump.

At this juncture, as the Iranian regime, as a concession to Mr. Trump, "only" murders the protestors off camera, I can only hope and pray that when we look back at this dark moment in history, it will be within the context of the costly passage to freedom for the Iranian People.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: If Iran Changes, Israel Must Move First - Israel Cheapest Route For Crude To Europe

Sat, 31 Jan 2026 18:03:05 -0500

Weekly Commentary: If Iran Changes, Israel Must Move First - Israel Cheapest Route For Crude To Europe

Dr. Aaron Lerner 31 January 2026

The U.S. Energy Administration (Country Analysis Brief: Iran) estimates that Iran's crude oil production could increase to 3.8 million barrels per day (b/d) within six months after the sanction have been lifted. Assuming that China increases its imports of Iranian crude to the 1984 an average of 1.5 million b/d this leaves 2.5 million b/d for other markets.

The Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Co., now Europe-Asia Pipeline Co. (EAPC), at partial capacity, could handle meaningful volumes quickly (e.g., ramping to 200,000-400,000 bpd within 1-2 years), providing Iran revenue while full integrity repairs to the pipeline (potentially 3-5 years) proceed to reach a conservatively rated capacity of 600,000 b/d.

It is a considerably cheaper way for Iranian crude to reach Europe than through the Suez Canal with the added advantage that the supertankers too big for the Suez Canal can easily dock in Eilat.

So if there's a regime change, we Israelis can come to the table with offering a substantial economic benefit to collaboration (yes, we would have to balance this with the MOU we have with the UAE for using the pipeline).

A post-regime-change Iran would seek international legitimacy, there is no clearer signal than full diplomatic normalization with Israel.

Such a move would demonstrate to Washington, Europe, and the region that Iran has exited the revolutionary framework that has defined Middle Eastern politics for a generation.

And by becoming a route for post-sanction Iranian crude to Europe, Israel won't find itself in the back seat when Turkey offers Iran considerably more expensive access to European markets,

This may sound like a pipe-dream today.

But things can move quickly.

And we must be ready to jump at the opportunity.

Israel’s task is therefore clear: be positioned to move early, normalize decisively, and shape the regional landscape before defaults harden and leverage shifts beyond Israel’s ability to influence developments.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Weekly Commentary: Disaster If Trump Blinking Not Bluffing

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 18:03:33 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Disaster If Trump Blinking Not Bluffing
Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 January 2026

By the most conservative estimates, in the coming days the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) would be able to participate in an attack on Iran Which jibes with the threats President Trump made.

Threats which encouraged many thousands of Iranian civilians to willingly sacrifice their lives in protests as part of an effort to bring down the terrible Iranian regime.

When Mr. Trump thanked Iran for not publicly executing protestors cynics suggested that he was giving Iran a pass to continue torturing them to death off camera.

I hope and pray that next week we learn that the cynics were wrong.

That the confusing talk was just to put Iran off guard.

Prime Minister Netanyahu knows the truth.

If Netanyahu knows that President Trump is blinking, then he must assume Trump will blink on other matters relating to Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, etc..

And everything we do from this point forward must take this painful reality into account.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Reminder: 2 Jan 26 Weekly Commentary: Trump's Unprecedented Threat to Iran Over the Killing of Protesters

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 17:45:58 -0500

Reminder:Weekly Commentary: Trump's Unprecedented Threat to Iran Over the
Killing of Protesters
Dr. Aaron Lerner 2 January 2026
[14 January 2026 I am recirculating this commentary from two weeks ago as my
commentary for this week after President Trump told reporters, "the killing
has stopped".]

"If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their
custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are
locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this
matter!"
President DONALD J. TRUMP
2 January 2026, Truth Social

As far as I can tell, no American president has ever issued such a clear
warning to a foreign country regarding the consequences of killing peaceful
protesters.

I am not going to engage in speculation as to whether Mr. Trump's team will
resort to hyper-technical analyses of each incident in which protesters are
killed in order to avoid being put to the test.

#1. Was the shooter a true representative of the Iranian regime?
#2. Were those killed truly "protesters"?
#3. Were they 100 percent "peaceful"?

I will suggest only this: if, in the coming days, more Iranian protesters
are killed and no action is taken to come to their rescue - despite the
declaration that "we are locked and loaded and ready to go" - this may
undermine the deterrent effect of other warnings issued by President Trump.

And that could be very dangerous for all of us.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

MK Gafni cites non-existent history to defend blanket IDF service

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 05:32:44 -0500

MK Gafni cites non-existent history to defend blanket IDF service waiver
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 January 2026

In an interview on Reshet Bet this morning, MK Moshe Gafni of Yahadut
Hatorah stated as fact it is well known that King David and others had an
equal number of people studying Torah as fighters.

This argument is one of the favorite arguments for a blanket waiver from IDF
service for those who register with a Yeshiva.

(I write "register with a Yeshiva" because MK Gafni strongly opposes any
measure to effectively check that they are actually studying.)

No classical or medieval source (Biblical, Talmudic, Midrashic, or from
figures like the Maharal) frames Torah scholars and soldiers in a strict
one-to-one ratio or headcount parity. Key traditional references include:

- Sotah 44b (and related discussions): Some fight with weapons while others
support through Torah/prayer, but no quantification.

- Bamidbar Rabbah and similar midrashim: Torah study as a parallel
protective "force" to arms.

- Joshua 1:8 and broader themes: Success tied to Torah devotion, but as
divine causation, not demographic matching.

- Later thinkers (e.g., Maharal, Netziv on spoils-sharing in some
interpretations): Metaphysical or functional equivalence, without numbers.

The explicit 1:1 formulation (one Torah scholar "matches" or is equivalent
to one soldier in defense contribution) is indeed a modern rhetorical
device, emerging in the mid-20th century amid Israel's founding, universal
conscription debates, and tensions over yeshiva deferments.

Historical context:
- In 1948, David Ben-Gurion approved exemptions for only ~400 yeshiva
students (a tiny number then), based on qualitative arguments about
preserving Torah study as a spiritual bulwark.
- As haredi (ultra-Orthodox) populations grew and deferments expanded (from
hundreds to tens of thousands), the discourse shifted toward justifying mass
exemptions in state-budget and manpower terms.
- The numerical 1:1 slogan appears in political and rabbinic advocacy from
roughly the 1950s-1970s onward, translating classical spiritual claims into
pragmatic, secular-state language during conscription controversies (e.g.,
post-1948 debates, Tal Committee era in the 1990s-2000s, and recent Supreme
Court rulings).

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il