IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Earmark IAI & Rafael Sales Proceeds To Expansion of

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 14:49:38 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Earmark IAI & Rafael Sales Proceeds To Expansion of
Domestic Defense Manufacturing

Israel has a unique opportunity to convert a one-time privatization windfall
into lasting strategic strength.

The planned sale of 25 to 30 percent stakes in Israel Aerospace Industries
and Rafael is expected to raise between 40 and 50 billion shekels - roughly
$12 to $15 billion - equivalent to three to four years of regular U.S.
military aid in a single transaction.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly committed to a $110 billion,
ten-year program to expand domestic defense manufacturing.

Yet without a legal mechanism to ring-fence the proceeds of these sales, the
funds risk being absorbed into the general budget and diverted to short-term
political priorities instead of long-term military industrial capacity.

The solution is straightforward.

Israel already has the Citizens of Israel Fund (also known as the Israel
Citizens' Fund) as a working model for ring-fencing windfall revenues, along
with precedents - such as the Google-Wiz deal - for large transactions
settled in dollars. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has supported dollar
settlement since 2024.

Targeted legislation can establish a dedicated Defense Industrial Investment
Fund, allow the proceeds to be received in dollars and held offshore, and
legally restricted to capital investment in Israel's defense production
base.

This structure would enable Israel to execute the full sale in one or two
large blocks while global demand for defense assets remains elevated, rather
than spreading smaller tranches through 2027.

This arrangement would transform a fiscal windfall into a genuine strategic
industrial upgrade by ensuring that the funds are used as intended while
effectively neutralizing the impact on the shekel exchange rate of what
would otherwise be huge shekel transactions.

The window is open.

The mechanism is proven.

The only question is whether Jerusalem will seize the moment - or let
another privatization windfall dissolve into ordinary government spending.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

To what extent is Egypt building up its forces in Sinai?

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 12:06:15 -0400

There is also infrastructural buildup: the Egyptian army is building three
bases in Sinai that include airports - in violation of the agreement - while
expanding its other bases in the peninsula and constructing new bunkers.
Satellite imagery has revealed that since 2013, Egypt has built dozens of
floating bridges (mostly military) across the Suez Canal, in addition to a
railway bridge and the digging of tunnels under the canal. All of these will
allow Egypt to move forces into Sinai much faster than before.

To what extent is Egypt building up its forces in Sinai?
Shachar Citron - Hashiloach 42
Grok translation

The Egyptian army is strengthening and violating the peace agreement with
Israel. Whatever the reasons for this may be - Israel must not turn a blind
eye.

"The soldier seeking to assess security threats looks at the capabilities of
other countries, not their intentions," stated Samuel Huntington. One of the
countries with the most developed military capabilities in our region is
Egypt.

Although the peace agreement with Egypt is nearly fifty years old, if we
heed Huntington's advice, this fact should have only limited relevance when
assessing the threat posed by our African neighbor. For the same reason,
Egyptian violations of the agreement in recent years are not necessary to
justify Israeli preparedness on the southwestern border; they merely make it
more urgent.

As befits a country with a population of approximately 110 million people,
Egypt has a numerically large army, with about 440,000 soldiers in active
service and another 480,000 in reserve service (alongside roughly 400,000
soldiers in semi-military armed forces, such as the Central Security Forces
and the National Guard). The ground army includes several thousand armored
vehicles, along with artillery brigades, airborne brigades, special forces,
and more.

However, while the Egyptian army is impressive in terms of numbers, its
qualitative state is far from impressive. It still uses outdated equipment,
much of which dates back to the Soviet era. It is against this backdrop that
Egyptian efforts at buildup and modernization must be understood.

Budget Opacity

Regarding the army's budget and expenditures, the picture is complex.
According to official data, the share of the defense budget in Egypt's GDP
has decreased in recent years - from 1.7% of GDP in 2016 to 0.9% in 2023.
Numerically, the defense budget has not grown in recent years either. In
2015, the peak year of the last decade, the budget stood at $5.48 billion,
but it has not reached a similar level since. In 2023, it stood at only
$3.16 billion. These figures are significantly lower than those of other
Middle Eastern countries. According to Military Balance records, Egypt's
defense expenditures in 2023-2024 shrank by more than 20%, while Saudi
Arabia's, for example, grew by 10-20%, and Israel's grew by more than 20%.

Some see these figures as a reason to calm the discourse about the Egyptian
army's buildup. However, there is reason to suspect that the published
budget does not reflect Egypt's true defense budget. In 2015, for example,
the Egyptian army's purchases from France amounted to approximately $6.8
billion, while the official army budget stood at only $5.48 billion.
Although payments for such a purchase are spread over several years, this
was a purchase from just one country. Given that Egypt is deliberately
trying to diversify its sources of weapons, it is hard to see how such a sum
could fit within the official Egyptian defense budget.

The apparent shrinkage of the official budget also raises suspicion in light
of the series of security challenges Egypt has faced in recent years: the
war in Gaza and the fear of millions of Gazan refugees migrating, conflicts
in neighboring countries such as Libya and Sudan, and the fear of war with
Ethiopia amid tensions over the "Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" and the
water crisis. It is important to note that in addition to the official
defense budget, Egypt receives an annual average of $1.3 billion in American
aid intended for military needs.

Armament and Modernization

As part of its army modernization efforts, over the past decade Egypt has
carried out military purchases and armaments worth tens of billions of
dollars.

According to some estimates, the extensive military procurement led to a
136% increase in Egyptian military imports during 2016-2020 compared to
2011-2015. In 2021, about 45% of Germany's total arms sales (which amounted
to $10.6 billion) were directed to Egypt (approximately $4.8 billion). That
same year, Egypt was the second-largest arms importer from Italy. It should
be noted that one reason for Egypt's diversification of procurement sources
is to reduce its dependence on American imports alone.

Today, according to estimates, Egypt possesses several thousand tanks
(numbers range between approximately 2,000 and 4,000), including 1,100-1,300
relatively advanced M1A1 Abrams tanks (though still far behind Israel's
advanced Merkava models); about 403 fighter jets, including 213 F-16s; about
166 helicopters belonging to the air force, of which 35 are Apache
helicopters, plus another 35 helicopters for the navy. The navy also
operates 20 warships (corvettes and frigates). In addition, the purchase of
Rafale fighter jets from France has made Egypt one of the largest operators
of the Rafale in the world.
Despite Egyptian claims that the procurement is intended to protect gas
fields and fight terrorism, according to accepted military doctrines, a
large portion of the acquisitions - such as helicopter carriers, warships,
and heavy armored vehicles - is better suited for deploying forces against a
regular military opponent, for ground maneuvers, or for the rapid landing of
hundreds of soldiers on enemy shores. For fighting irregular forces like
terrorist organizations in Sinai, Egypt would have been better off investing
in drones and light armored vehicles rather than in warships and submarines.

And What About the Peace Agreement?

According to the peace agreement, in the area up to approximately 30 km from
the border with Israel (Area C), the Egyptians are permitted to maintain
only police forces. In central Sinai (Area B), Egyptian forces are limited
to 4 border guard battalions. In areas adjacent to the Suez Canal (Area A),
the Egyptians are allowed up to 22,000 soldiers, 230 tanks, 480 armored
vehicles, and a limited number of artillery and anti-aircraft batteries. In
addition, Egypt is prohibited from building military bases in Sinai that
include airports. On the Israeli side of the border, along a narrow strip
called Area D, Israeli forces are also restricted.

However, according to assessments and reports, Egypt is not adhering to the
terms of the agreement and justifies this by the need to fight terrorism and
maintain stability in the peninsula. For example, in August 2011, Egypt
moved about 2,000 soldiers accompanied by tanks and armored personnel
carriers into northern Sinai to restore order in the area. It received
Israeli approval for this. Several months earlier, Israel had approved the
transfer of two battalions for the same purpose. In 2012, additional forces
and tanks were moved to the area to fight terrorism, and this time Israel
approved it only retroactively. In September 2021, it was reported that
el-Sisi approached then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett with a request to
change the demilitarization terms and allow the deployment of larger forces
to Sinai.

According to estimates, in 2018 a total of over 44,000 soldiers were
deployed in Sinai (some claim the number reaches up to 66,000) - at least
double what the peace agreement permits. Many of these forces are deployed
in Area C, close to the border with Israel. Of all the soldiers stationed in
Sinai, only 24,000
took an active part in the war on terrorism in the peninsula - the very
reason Egypt originally requested to bring in the soldiers. Egypt also
violates the peace agreement in other areas: it has deployed prohibited
artillery and vehicles, including 200 tanks beyond what is permitted, some
of them even inside Area C.

The Egyptian army is building up and modernizing, while at the same time the
demilitarization rules of the 1979 peace agreement are becoming irrelevant.
The intentions of the Egyptians are a matter for speculation - and for
intelligence - but the wise soldier focuses on capabilities, not intentions.
Israeli decision-makers must not turn a blind eye to the capabilities and
actions of our southern neighbor.

Shachar Citron is a researcher at the Security Movement.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

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Arab-Israeli relations

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Observation: Lebanon Battered Wife - Not Parents of Rock Thrower

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 08:02:25 -0400

Observation: Lebanon Battered Wife - Not Parents of Rock Thrower
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 April 2026

Yesterday, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee compared Hezbollah to a
"rough little kid living in the neighborhood who keeps throwing rocks at
everybody's window."

Hezbollah isn't a "little kid." Hezbollah's army is stronger than Lebanon's.

And Hezbollah doesn't throw "rocks at everybody's window." They kill people.

A social worker isn't needed to solve the problem of a "rough little kid."

Hezbollah is a violent, abusive husband who killed his first wife.

Lebanon is a battered wife.

And like many battered wives, when the authorities try to act against the
monstrous husband, the battered wife calls out from behind the door to leave
her husband alone.

When you appreciate that Lebanon is a battered wife, you understand that
talk can only go so far.

And more importantly: you know that, like that poor, miserable battered
wife, what Lebanon says it wants isn't what Lebanon really needs.

That's why we hear Lebanese officials, like the battered wife huddled behind
the door, calling for Israel to withdraw and leave Lebanon alone to take
care of the situation by itself.

Now you might be cold-hearted in the case of the battered wife and leave her
alone.

But what if the violent husband was also attacking the neighbors?

That's the situation with Lebanon.

Someone might think that giving battered-wife Lebanon a gun would solve the
situation.

But battered-wife Lebanon doesn't have the will to seriously fight
Hezbollah.

And to make matters worse, the Lebanese Army includes a large faction of
Hezbollah-supporting Shiites!

Huckabee asserted that the effort initiated by the US will "get that little
kid out of the neighborhood."

But there was no "meat" to the remarks of President Donald Trump at the
meeting. It seemed from his remarks and in the Q&A that Mr. Trump thinks
that somehow the stature of the USA alone will cause negotiations to reach a
resolution, along with a photo op.

Hezbollah isn't going to leave the neighborhood peacefully.

It could very well be that the IDF is the only force in the world willing to
emasculate Hezbollah to the point that Lebanon is no longer a battered wife.

Everyone else is just a talker.

This isn't simple.

But claiming otherwise only contributes to the problem.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Israel Needs Its Own D9 - Strategic Insurance, Not Luxury

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 14:57:38 -0400

Israel Needs Its Own D9 - Strategic Insurance, Not Luxury
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 April 2026

Rabbi Avraham Zarbiv was honored to light one of the torches at our
Independence Day ceremony for inventing a method to bring down buildings of
as much as 7 stories tall via the harmonic motion caused by repeatedly
pushing them with a Caterpillar D9.

This strategic, and in many respects game-changing, discovery certainly
warranted this recognition.

We need D9s or their equivalent.

Just last week, 40 out of 47 Democratic senators voted in favor of
legislation aimed at blocking the sale of D9s to Israel.

If the trend continues that is only the beginning.

If you think there's no cause for concern, I suggest you read A Deepening
Crisis in Israel's Standing in the United States
INSS Insight No. 2130, April 23, 2026
by Avishay Ben Sasson-Gordis and Theodore Sasson
https://www.inss.org.il/publication/usa-israel-public-opinion/

It should serve as a wake-up call for anyone who thinks there is no need to
prepare for a change in Washington come January 2029.

Legislation wouldn't even be needed if the wrong person sits in the White
House.

Imagine the cheers a Democratic president would get for announcing that
Israel violated the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) by failing to limit the
use of the D9s to legitimate self-defense or internal security.

If the USA stops supplying D9s, there is literally no substitute available
in the world.

There are, though, sources for the drivetrain in India which can be relied
upon even if the sun goes down for us in America.

Building an alternative would be anything but cheap, and there probably
won't even be an export market for an Israeli D9 to help offset the costs.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a $110 billion investment plan
over the next 10 years specifically dedicated to building an independent
domestic arms industry.

In that context, even a $1 billion program to have a boycott-proof
substitute for the D9 takes a reasonable place in the portfolio.

A domestic D9 is not a luxury. It is strategic insurance.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Lebanese President Aoun: Goal Is Israeli Withdrawal - Not Disarming Hezbollah

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:32:25 -0400

Lebanese President Aoun: Goal Is Israeli Withdrawal - Not Disarming
Hezbollah
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 April 2026

As President Aoun sees it, the goal of the talks with Israel is to have them
withdraw and resolve border disputes (aka - have Israel withdraw form parts
of Israel).

Please note that MP Ghassan Hasbani, who is quoted below saying "we affirmed
that when Beirut is safe we will have a launch for all of Lebanon safe and
free of weapons" does not represent the government or the presidency. He is
an opposition MP.

In sharp contrast, the most that President Aoun is willing to say is that
"the Lebanese Army will play a fundamental role after the withdrawal of the
Israeli forces in terms of deployment up to the international southern
borders and ending the armed manifestations and reassuring the southerners
after their return to their villages and towns, that there are no armed
forces other than the army and the legitimate security forces."

So President Aoun won't even talk about disarming Hezbollah in general. And
when it comes to South Lebanon, the goal that "that there are no armed
forces other than the army and the legitimate security forces" is almost an
afterthought.

If President Trump is serious about resolving the situation and not a photo
op, he should endorse achieving MP Ghassan Hasbani's goal of disarming
Hezbollah everywhere in Lebanon.

First: Disarm Hezbollah in the Beirut area.

Second: Disarm Hezbollah in other areas not now under the control of the
IDF.

Only then: Replacement of IDF forces with Lebanese Army forces in a
systematic polygon-by-polygon approach.

English translation of official Lebanese report of Pres. Aoun's remarks
regarding ceasefire
https://www.presidency.gov.lb/posts/reys-aljmhwryh-amam-wfd-mn-nwab-byrwt-mq
arbh-mrhlh-ma-bad-wqf-atlaq-alnar-tttlb-whdh-fy-almwaqf-alwtnyh-wtdhamna-sya
sya-jamaa-ma-aldwlh-lan-almfawdhat-almbashrh-dqyqh-wmfslyh-j93261938403019
(Website of the Lebanon Presidency)
Official private meetings 17 April 2026

President of the Republic before a delegation of Beirut MPs: The approach to
the post-ceasefire phase requires unity in national positions and
comprehensive political solidarity with the state because the direct
negotiations are delicate and pivotal.

President Aoun: The ceasefire is the gateway to proceeding with the
negotiations and an option that receives local and external support.

President of the Republic: National responsibility must be one in the next
phase and the Lebanese are today facing a new reality that has received Arab
and international support.

MP Hasbani: We sensed from His Excellency the President that there is
seriousness and solid sponsorship for the issue of negotiations and we
affirmed that when Beirut is safe we will have a launch for all of Lebanon
safe and free of weapons.

MP Khalaf: President Aoun affirmed that the opportunity that Lebanon has
reached through the ceasefire is a pivotal and essential station in a path
that awaits it to achieve greater stability for this tormented homeland.

President of the Republic General Joseph Aoun affirmed during his reception
of a delegation of Beirut MPs that the direct negotiations are delicate and
pivotal and that national responsibility must be one in the next phase, and
that the eyes of the world are directed towards Lebanon, stressing that the
goal of the Lebanese state from the negotiations is to consolidate the
ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied southern
territories and the recovery of the prisoners and the resolution of the
disputes occurring between Lebanon and Israel on a number of border points.

And President Aoun informed the parliamentary delegation that the approach
to the post-ceasefire phase requires unity in national positions and
comprehensive political solidarity with the state so that the ability of the
Lebanese team to achieve what the negotiations aimed for is not weakened,
especially with regard to consolidating the ceasefire which is considered
the gateway to proceeding with the negotiations and it is an option that
receives local and external support, the most prominent manifestations of
which was what US President Donald Trump announced during the phone call
yesterday of support for Lebanon and its sovereignty and independence and
the safety of its lands, in addition to the United States standing by the
Lebanese people to end their suffering and regain their well-being and
reactivate their economy which was negatively affected as a result of the
recent war.

And President Aoun affirmed that the Lebanese Army will play a fundamental
role after the withdrawal of the Israeli forces in terms of deployment up to
the international southern borders and ending the armed manifestations and
reassuring the southerners after their return to their villages and towns,
that there are no armed forces other than the army and the legitimate
security forces.

And President Aoun stressed that the Lebanese who have endured a lot in the
past years are today facing a new reality that has received Arab and
international support and this opportunity must not be wasted because it may
not be repeated.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Following the Egypt-Israel model, full diplomatic relations before Israel Withdraws

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 10:29:16 -0400

Following the Egypt-Israel model, full diplomatic relations before Israel
Withdraws
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 April 2026

26 March 1979: The Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty was signed in Washington, D.C..
This treaty included mutual recognition, end of the state of war, and
normalization of relations in exchange for Israel's complete withdrawal from
the Sinai Peninsula.

26 January 1980: Full diplomatic relations were officially established
between Israel and Egypt.

26 February 26, 1980: Ambassadors were exchanged (Eliyahu Ben-Elissar became
Israel's first ambassador to Egypt).

25 April 25, 1982: Israel completed its full withdrawal from the Sinai
Peninsula (the process took about three years, with phased withdrawals).
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il