IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il Middle East News & Analysis en-US 1739545181 1739545181 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Capalon Internet 2.0 imra@netvision.net.il (Aaron Lerner) News & Analysis IMRA Middle East News Updates https://www.imra.org.il https://www.imra.org.il/imra_sm.png 144 97 "All Hell Breaks Loose" = Annex Jordan Valley https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74315 <p>"All Hell Breaks Loose" = Annex Jordan Valley<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 February 2024</p> <p>Hamas does not value life, it values land.</p> <p>This Saturday night, if all the hostages are not released, Prime Minister<br /> Binyamin Netanyahu can hold a snap meeting of his cabinet and annex the<br /> Jordan Valley. </p> <p>For years now Netanyahu has had a map in his drawer for this vote.</p> <p>For Hamas the move would indeed be "all Hell breaking loose". </p> <p>But since the Jordan Valley has absolutely nothing to do with the agreement<br /> Hamas has with Israel, Hamas would have no grounds to stop the deal from<br /> continuing.</p> <p>And President Trump can warn "I said all Hell would break lose and it did.<br /> Today Hamas felt a pain a million times more than the pain of death -<br /> because they don't value lives."<br /> ===<br /> Weekly Commentary: PM Netanyahu - Don't Jeopardize Iran Attack by<br /> Embarrassing Trump on Saturday<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 February 2025</p> <p>Prime Minister Netanyahu,</p> <p>You will jeopardize the planned coordinated attack on Fordow and Natanz if<br /> this Saturday, all hell does not break loose if all - and I mean ALL- the<br /> hostages aren't released by Hamas.</p> <p>It is as simple as that.</p> <p>As someone who was in Mr. Trump's doghouse for years for congratulating<br /> Biden on his victory, you know what you are facing.</p> <p>And I don't need to remind you of Mr. Trump's disdain for your sluggish<br /> operations over the course of almost a year after October 7th.</p> <p>If you embarrass President Trump on Saturday, you will be the first world<br /> leader to publicly show your behind to this President of the United States<br /> of America.</p> <p>The plans we have to destroy Fordow and Natanz apparently hinge on various<br /> forms of American participation.</p> <p>The Americans won't be dropping bombs, but they will be doing a lot more<br /> than cheering from the bleachers.</p> <p>If you cross Trump on Saturday, he won't be game for cooperating in such an<br /> operation.</p> <p>And he can explain to the Israel supporters on his team: "I don't think Bibi<br /> has the balls to really pull off the operation -h e will call it off at the<br /> last minute, and I will look like a fool when the press gets wind of the<br /> preparations I authorized our forces to carry out."</p> <p>Mr. Netanyahu, for years you have been whispering "Iran" to people to<br /> explain why we can't do this, that, or the other.</p> <p>So this time, I'm not going to whisper "Iran" - I am going to shout it out:</p> <p>"IRAN!!!!!"</p> <p>This isn't politics.</p> <p>A nuclear Iran is definitely an existential threat to the Jewish State.</p> <p>Don't screw up this Saturday.</p> <p>________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 14 Feb 2025 09:59:41 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74315 Weekly Commentary: PM Netanyahu - Don't Jeopardize Iran Attack by Embarrassing Trump on Saturday https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74314 <p>Weekly Commentary: PM Netanyahu - Don't Jeopardize Iran Attack by<br /> Embarrassing Trump on Saturday<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 February 2025</p> <p>Prime Minister Netanyahu,</p> <p>You will jeopardize the planned coordinated attack on Fordow and Natanz if<br /> this Saturday, all hell does not break loose if all - and I mean ALL- the<br /> hostages aren't released by Hamas.</p> <p>It is as simple as that.</p> <p>As someone who was in Mr. Trump's doghouse for years for congratulating<br /> Biden on his victory, you know what you are facing.</p> <p>And I don't need to remind you of Mr. Trump's disdain for your sluggish<br /> operations over the course of almost a year after October 7th.</p> <p>If you embarrass President Trump on Saturday, you will be the first world<br /> leader to publicly show your behind to this President of the United States<br /> of America.</p> <p>The plans we have to destroy Fordow and Natanz apparently hinge on various<br /> forms of American participation.</p> <p>The Americans won't be dropping bombs, but they will be doing a lot more<br /> than cheering from the bleachers.</p> <p>If you cross Trump on Saturday, he won't be game for cooperating in such an<br /> operation.</p> <p>And he can explain to the Israel supporters on his team: "I don't think Bibi<br /> has the balls to really pull off the operation -h e will call it off at the<br /> last minute, and I will look like a fool when the press gets wind of the<br /> preparations I authorized our forces to carry out."</p> <p>Mr. Netanyahu, for years you have been whispering "Iran" to people to<br /> explain why we can't do this, that, or the other.</p> <p>So this time, I'm not going to whisper "Iran" - I am going to shout it out:</p> <p>"IRAN!!!!!"</p> <p>This isn't politics.</p> <p>A nuclear Iran is definitely an existential threat to the Jewish State.</p> <p>Don't screw up this Saturday.</p> <p>________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Thu, 13 Feb 2025 03:48:58 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74314 Ramon Slams Gallant Oct 23 attack on Hezbollah would have been disaster https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74313 <p>Translation: Haim Ramon Slams Gallant - 11 Oct 2023 attack on Hezbollah<br /> would have been disaster<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 10 February 2025</p> <p>I was among those who pushed for us to take out Hezbollah's missiles back in<br /> October 2023. </p> <p>I was wrong.</p> <p>And Ramon explains below why we had to wait.</p> <p>It wasn't an easy wait for those of us who understood. </p> <p>I even personally spent thousands of dollars on a broadband satellite modem<br /> and a solar panel system in expectation that we wouldn't have phone service<br /> or electricity.</p> <p>If you understand Hebrew it is worthwhile to watch the Gallant interview.</p> <p>You will be shocked to learn that then DM Gallant not only wasn't aware on<br /> October 2023 of the "Jericho Wall" document which spelled out Hamas' plans<br /> but that Gallant wasn't sure the IDF COS knew about it either. </p> <p>The open source reports are that the chain of command in Military<br /> Intelligence blocked material on Jericho Wall because it didn't jibe with<br /> their disastrously wrong assessments. </p> <p>You might share my disappointment that Amit Segal, who was interviewing<br /> Gallant, didn't pivot from this stunning news to ask Gallant why he didn't<br /> support legislation so that members of the security system - of any rank -<br /> can reach out to the prime minister and defense minister with information<br /> which they deem to be critical (today they could go to prison for such an<br /> act).</p> <p>You may not be surprised to learn that even though Gallant does understand<br /> that "Jericho Wall" predates the judicial reform initiatives and that Hamas<br /> and Hezbollah have been preparing for many many years to destroy Israel that<br /> he STILL thinks that somehow the attack was launched in part because of<br /> judicial reform and Israeli activity on the Temple Mount. </p> <p>This is the link to view the interview of former DM Gallant on Channel 12<br /> https://www.mako.co.il/news-military/2025_q1/Article-f0dc39bc717d491027.htm</p> <p>This is the link for Haim Ramon's scathing attack<br /> https://x.com/ramonhaim/status/1888589858710372734</p> <p>Here is a ChatGPT0 translation of the Ramon post</p> <p>The interviews given by Defense Minister Gallant to Yedioth Ahronoth and<br /> Channel 12 News were full of half-truths and outright lies. But it seems to<br /> me that Gallant reached the peak of his falsehoods in his description of his<br /> positions regarding the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, both regarding his<br /> claim that he proposed attacking Hezbollah in October and regarding his<br /> opposition to attacking Hezbollah at the end of August.</p> <p>Gallant recounts how, on October 11, he proposed opening a second front<br /> against Hezbollah in Lebanon, but Bibi did not allow him to. Gallant<br /> explains that if we had started the war against Hezbollah first, including a<br /> ground maneuver into Lebanon, "we would have achieved the physical<br /> elimination of a significant portion of Hezbollah," and then we could have<br /> "taken divisions from the north, transferred them south, operated in Khan<br /> Yunis and Rafah simultaneously with operations in Gaza," and salvation would<br /> have come to Zion, with Gallant as Israel's great savior.</p> <p>Gallant is lying and misleading in almost every word of his account. On<br /> October 11, the IDF was still completing its takeover of the southern<br /> border. At that stage, when Hamas and Hezbollah were at the peak of their<br /> strength and preparedness, Israel was at the peak of its weakness, the IDF<br /> was battered, and even the Chief of Staff himself had low confidence in the<br /> ground forces' capabilities. (Even weeks later, when the Chief of Staff<br /> presented the war plan to the war cabinet, he explained that the ground<br /> maneuver would begin with a slow and gradual attack only in the northern<br /> part of the Gaza Strip, instead of a rapid, simultaneous attack across the<br /> entire Strip, "to restore the IDF's self-confidence after October 7"- and<br /> Gallant supported this).</p> <p>Furthermore, until that time, the prevailing security assessment was that<br /> the IDF was not capable of waging a war on two fronts simultaneously,<br /> certainly not when one of those fronts was against Hezbollah. In other<br /> words, Gallant's proposal would have resulted in halting any possible<br /> maneuver in Gaza for the entire duration of the campaign in Lebanon.</p> <p>Gallant mockingly describes Netanyahu's fear that thousands of Israeli<br /> civilians would die from Hezbollah's residual missile capability if Israel<br /> opened a second front, but he "forgets" to mention that the IDF's reference<br /> scenario at the time was as follows: A full-scale attack on Hezbollah at the<br /> height of its strength would cost the lives of hundreds of soldiers, and<br /> even if Israel managed to destroy the vast majority of Hezbollah's missiles<br /> in a surprise attack, the residual capability that remained would still<br /> result in the deaths of thousands of civilians.</p> <p>Noam Amir recounts how, three months before October 7, military reporters<br /> attended a briefing at the National Security Council with senior IDF<br /> officers. The scenario presented to them for a war against Hezbollah was as<br /> follows: On the first day of the war, Hezbollah would fire 6,000 rockets at<br /> Israel; on the second day, 5,000 rockets; on the third day, 5,000 rockets;<br /> and only on the fourth day would the IDF succeed in reducing Hezbollah's<br /> daily rocket fire to 1,400-2,000.</p> <p>The military reporters asked the Home Front Command commander how the<br /> command would handle such a scale of fire. His response was: "There will be<br /> destruction on an unimaginable scale." The reporters then asked the Air<br /> Force commander, "Can the Iron Dome handle 6,000 rockets?" His response:<br /> "There is a reasonable chance that in the first few days, there will be no<br /> Iron Dome. It will take us at least three to four days [to activate it]<br /> because Hezbollah knows how to strike it."</p> <p>At that time, the IDF was at its weakest: The emergency warehouses contained<br /> only two to three weeks' worth of ammunition; the maneuvering divisions were<br /> far from full operational readiness, many of their reservists had yet to be<br /> mobilized, and those who had been mobilized were only just beginning<br /> refresher training. In the north, there was only one division, while the<br /> other divisions were either in the south or in the process of mobilization.<br /> (As a reminder, just two days earlier, IDF forces had completed the clearing<br /> of Hamas forces from the Gaza border communities). The northern settlements<br /> had not yet been evacuated, and thousands of Radwan Force fighters were<br /> positioned just a short distance from the border, inside tunnels and heavily<br /> fortified positions.</p> <p>In other words, if Israel had launched an attack against Hezbollah on<br /> October 11, it would not have had enough ground forces in the north to<br /> confront the Radwan Force troops stationed at the border, and they could<br /> have penetrated Israel, seized several communities, and taken hundreds of<br /> Israelis captive. Then, after two to three weeks of fighting, the IDF would<br /> have reached a catastrophic situation where its aircraft would have no bombs<br /> left to drop on Hezbollah forces, and its artillery would have no shells<br /> left to fire at them.</p> <p>Fortunately, those who saved us from the disaster Gallant was about to bring<br /> upon us were Gantz and Eisenkot, who, together with Netanyahu and Dermer,<br /> rejected this reckless proposal.</p> <p>While Gallant wanted to attack in the north as early as October 11, when<br /> Hezbollah was at its strongest and the IDF at its weakest, a few months<br /> later-after the IDF had strengthened, acquired ammunition, and its ground<br /> forces had gained combat experience in Gaza, while Hezbollah had been worn<br /> down by the IDF's gradual planned escalation and the continuous Air Force<br /> strikes on its missile stockpiles and Radwan Force troops at the<br /> border-suddenly, the Defense Minister changed his stance 180 degrees<br /> regarding Lebanon and worked to end Operation Iron Swords without launching<br /> a large-scale military campaign against Hezbollah.</p> <p>On August 29, Gallant presented a document to the cabinet in which he<br /> proposed reaching a hostage deal not only to end the war in Gaza but also to<br /> facilitate an arrangement in the north to prevent war with Hezbollah and to<br /> soften Iran's intentions for revenge against Israel. In other words, Gallant<br /> proposed that Israel surrender in the south to Hamas and surrender in the<br /> north-before even confronting Hezbollah-so as not to provoke Iran.</p> <p>Had the cabinet adopted Gallant's second irresponsible proposal regarding<br /> Lebanon, the consequences would have been as follows: The nauseating<br /> hostage-return ceremonies would have taken place with Yahya Sinwar presiding<br /> over the event; thousands of Hamas terrorists who have since been eliminated<br /> would still be alive; Nasrallah would be delivering victory speeches;<br /> Hezbollah's entire leadership would still be alive; Operation Beepers would<br /> never have been launched; thousands of Hezbollah fighters would still have<br /> both eyes and ten fingers; and the Radwan Force would be stationed along the<br /> fence, right next to the northern communities, with the ability to inflict a<br /> disaster seven times greater than October 7. Iran's air defense systems<br /> would still be fully operational, and its influence in the region would have<br /> reached new heights.</p> <p>But Gallant didn't stop at trying to persuade the cabinet to halt the<br /> impending attack against Hezbollah. The day before Operation Beepers was<br /> launched, Gallant leaked a criminal disclosure to Ronen Bergman about<br /> "reckless steps the Israeli government is planning in the north." This<br /> criminal leak-which has yet to be investigated by the police and Shin<br /> Bet-could have led to the failure of Operation Beepers, which had been in<br /> preparation for years, and prevented the severe blow we dealt to Hezbollah.</p> <p>In an interview with Nadav Eyal, Gallant boasted about how he worked to<br /> assassinate Nasrallah in late September 2023, while Netanyahu hesitated in<br /> giving the authorization. This is an outright lie. Gallant actually worked<br /> to prevent the assassination operation. Gallant insisted that Nasrallah's<br /> assassination could only proceed with American approval. Since the Biden<br /> administration opposed escalating the conflict in Lebanon and sought a<br /> ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, it was clear that no approval would<br /> be given, and in such a case, the cabinet would not have approved action<br /> that explicitly contradicted American policy. Fortunately, Gallant's<br /> position was not accepted, and this crucial assassination went ahead.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Mon, 10 Feb 2025 13:43:31 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74313 Weekly Commentary: Gazans Consider Israel, Not Gaza, Their Homeland https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74312 <p>Weekly Commentary: Reality Check - Gazans Consider Israel, Not Gaza, Their<br /> Homeland<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 February 2025</p> <p>Here is a typical rant posted recently against relocating the Gazans from<br /> their disaster site to continue their lives in safety and prosperity. </p> <p>"Their attachment is to the land, which they cannot relinquish, substitute,<br /> or be compensated for. This is where they belong, where their ancestors<br /> lived and died, where their cultural heritage resides, and where they still<br /> dream of having a better and brighter future and living with dignity."</p> <p>Nice rant.</p> <p>But clueless.</p> <p>And also an insult to the Gazans.</p> <p>Because when you claim that the Gazans are somehow devoted to living in Gaza<br /> you deny the devotion and commitment of the people of Gaza to "returning"<br /> inside Israel.</p> <p>They don't struggle to liberate Gaza; they want to "liberate" Tel Aviv.</p> <p>And they make no bones about this.</p> <p>The first step toward solving a problem is recognizing what it is.</p> <p>And this time, it is easy - because the Gazans are telling us.</p> <p>They've been brainwashed for generations to believe that their goal is to<br /> move into Israel after ridding it of the Jews.</p> <p>And under the best of circumstances its going to take generations to cleanse<br /> the Ganza of this poison.</p> <p>The world can spend billions of dollars building housing in Gaza, but as far<br /> as the Gazans are concerned, it's temporary housing.</p> <p>And if billions of dollars of temporary housing are demolished in the course<br /> of their next attempt to destroy Israel so be it.</p> <p>Relocating the Gazans doesn't deny their attachment to Israeli land. </p> <p>But beyond providing them with a better life, relocation may also help<br /> initiate the long and arduous process of their de-radicalization.</p> <p>________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Fri, 07 Feb 2025 09:17:12 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74312 Lebanese UNDOF, French, and USA Have Blood on Their Hands for Failing to Stop Villagers from Attempting to Invade Israeli Positions https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74310 <p>Lebanese UNDOF, French, and USA Have Blood on Their Hands for Failing to<br /> Stop Villagers from Attempting to Invade Israeli Positions<br /> Dr. Aaron Lerner - 2 February 2025</p> <p>As Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu prepared to fly today to Washington,<br /> Hezbollah announced that Lebanese villagers would invade Israeli positions<br /> in villages on the Lebanese border.</p> <p>UNDOF didn't press the Lebanese Army to stop the invasion.</p> <p>Ditto for the American-led "monitoring mechanism," which also includes<br /> France.</p> <p>And so, the Lebanese Army didn't stop the invasion.</p> <p>Hats off to PM Netanyahu for endorsing the plan to open fire to drive back<br /> the Lebanese invaders.</p> <p>And I write "hats off" in all sincerity.</p> <p>Hezbollah no doubt thought that we would turn tail.</p> <p>And if we turned tail today, our future security would have been in the<br /> toilet.</p> <p>So the blood of 22 Lebanese invaders is shared by the Lebanese Army - which<br /> didn't stop the invasion despite the advanced warnings - as well as all the<br /> other players who should have pushed the Lebanese to do their job and, after<br /> the fact, apparently declined to issue strong condemnations of the Lebanese<br /> Army for leaving the IDF to stop the invasion.</p> <p>What happened today in Lebanon is an important lesson to President Trump and<br /> his team.</p> <p>And the lesson is clear: the deployment of the IDF in Southern Lebanon must<br /> be extended indefinitely.</p> <p>The ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel was dictated by people who<br /> didn't give a damn about the efficacy of the deal -just the photo op of the<br /> deal.</p> <p>President Trump doesn't need a photo op in Lebanon.</p> <p>So when he meets this week with Mr. Netanyahu, especially after this bloody<br /> illustration of the farce that the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire is, they can<br /> discuss how America can support the only viable arrangement for the<br /> foreseeable future: the continued Israeli deployment in Southern Lebanon.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Sun, 02 Feb 2025 15:23:44 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74310 Weekly Commentary: Saudi Role in Al-Aqsa Security as Reward for Diplomatic Recognition https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74309 <p>Weekly Commentary: Saudi Role in Al-Aqsa Security as Reward for Diplomatic<br /> Recognition</p> <p>Dr. Aaron Lerner 29 January 2025</p> <p>Context: The Israel-Jordan Treaty and Al-Aqsa's Status</p> <p>The 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty plays a defining role in shaping the<br /> administration and security of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem, particularly<br /> the Al-Aqsa Mosque. A key clause states:</p> <p>"Israel respects the present special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan<br /> in Muslim Holy shrines in Jerusalem. When negotiations on the permanent<br /> status will take place, Israel will give high priority to the Jordanian<br /> historic role in these shrines."</p> <p>This provision ensures that Jordan remains the official custodian of<br /> Al-Aqsa, through the Jordanian-controlled Waqf (Islamic trust). However, the<br /> treaty does not explicitly prevent Saudi Arabia from playing a role,<br /> provided it does not challenge Jordan's custodianship.</p> <p>A Measured Saudi Role: Enhancing Security Without Changing Custodianship</p> <p>Saudi Arabia's growing influence in the region, its aspirations for a<br /> formalized relationship with Israel, and its status as the guardian of Mecca<br /> and Medina make its potential involvement in Al-Aqsa security a natural<br /> extension of its regional leadership.</p> <p>Rather than seeking custodianship, a more practical and mutually beneficial<br /> role would be for Saudi Arabia to fund and implement Mecca-style security<br /> infrastructure at Al-Aqsa while ensuring Jordan retains full religious and<br /> administrative authority.</p> <p>Under this proposal, Saudi Arabia's role would be strictly limited to:</p> <p>Funding & Implementing Electronic Security Measures:</p> <p>Installation of metal detectors, baggage scanners, and explosives detection<br /> at all mosque entry points, similar to those in Mecca.</p> <p>Enhancing crowd control through smart surveillance systems to prevent<br /> weapons smuggling and unauthorized access.</p> <p>24/7 AI-Powered Security Cameras:</p> <p>High-resolution surveillance cameras throughout Al-Aqsa compound to prevent<br /> riots and unauthorized activities.</p> <p>Real-time monitoring by security teams, with access provided to Jordanian<br /> Waqf, Israeli security agencies, and Saudi-backed security analysts.</p> <p>Funding Al-Aqsa Maintenance and Infrastructure:</p> <p>Ongoing structural upkeep, cleaning, and renovation projects.</p> <p>No funding for Waqf salaries or political initiatives, ensuring Jordan<br /> retains religious oversight.</p> <p>Why Jordan Would Accept This Deal</p> <p>Jordan has historically resisted any attempts to dilute its custodianship of<br /> Al-Aqsa. However, this arrangement would not undermine its<br /> authority-instead, it would provide significant financial and security<br /> benefits without forcing Amman into a politically risky concession.</p> <p>Jordan would benefit from:</p> <p>Reduced Israeli security presence inside the mosque compound, which has long<br /> been a point of tension between Israel and Jordan.</p> <p>Enhanced security that prevents radicals from using Al-Aqsa as a flashpoint<br /> for regional unrest.</p> <p>Direct financial relief from Saudi-funded maintenance, easing Jordan's<br /> economic burden.</p> <p>No political loss, as Jordan remains the sole religious authority under the<br /> Israel-Jordan treaty framework.</p> <p>How This Benefits Israel</p> <p>For Israel, this proposal presents a major strategic advantage:</p> <p>Improved Security Without Concessions:</p> <p>The introduction of advanced screening and surveillance reduces the risk of<br /> attacks emanating from Al-Aqsa.</p> <p>Weapons smuggling and violent riots would decrease significantly with<br /> Saudi-funded security upgrades.</p> <p>Reduces Israeli-Jordanian Tensions:</p> <p>Israel has long faced criticism for deploying police inside the mosque<br /> compound.</p> <p>By allowing Saudi-funded, Jordanian-operated security upgrades, Israel can<br /> maintain full control over overall security while decreasing the need for<br /> direct police interventions.</p> <p>Strengthens Regional Alliances:</p> <p>By giving Saudi Arabia a non-political but highly visible role, Israel can<br /> use this as leverage in future regional negotiations.</p> <p>Why This is a Major Win for Saudi Arabia</p> <p>Saudi Arabia would significantly enhance its regional status through this<br /> initiative without needing to formally challenge Jordan or Israel. The<br /> benefits include:</p> <p>Becoming the "Guardian of Al-Aqsa's Security"</p> <p>Saudi Arabia would solidify its role as the key security provider for all<br /> three of Islam's holiest sites (Mecca, Medina, and now Al-Aqsa).</p> <p>This neutralizes rival claims by Turkey and Iran, both of whom have used<br /> Al-Aqsa for political posturing.</p> <p>Strengthening Saudi-Jordan Relations</p> <p>By funding Al-Aqsa's security and maintenance, Saudi Arabia deepens its<br /> economic and strategic ties with Jordan, giving it greater influence over<br /> Amman's policies.</p> <p>Advancing Saudi-Israel Normalization as an Alternative to Palestinian<br /> Statehood Commitments</p> <p>Instead of requiring Israel to make commitments toward a Palestinian state,<br /> this initiative could be framed as a stability-oriented "reward" for Saudi<br /> diplomatic recognition of Israel.</p> <p>This allows Israel to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia without making<br /> political concessions to the Palestinians.</p> <p>Saudi Arabia still achieves a high-profile Islamic leadership role,<br /> fulfilling its symbolic commitment to Jerusalem without requiring direct<br /> Palestinian engagement.</p> <p>Conclusion: A Realistic and Balanced Solution</p> <p>This Saudi-Jordan-Israel arrangement offers a rare win-win-win scenario:</p> <p>(1`) Jordan maintains full custodianship, with enhanced resources for<br /> Al-Aqsa's security and maintenance.<br /> (2) Israel gains significant security improvements without making political<br /> concessions to the Palestinians.<br /> (3) Saudi Arabia cements its influence as a protector of Al-Aqsa,<br /> strengthening its regional standing.<br /> (4) Normalization with Saudi Arabia advances without requiring Israeli<br /> commitments on Palestinian statehood.</p> <p>At a time when Al-Aqsa remains a volatile flashpoint, such a measured and<br /> cooperative security initiative could play a pivotal role in ensuring<br /> regional stability while preventing radicals from exploiting the site. This<br /> initiative could serve as a stepping stone toward broader diplomatic<br /> cooperation in the Middle East, benefiting all parties involved.<br /> ________________________________________<br /> IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis</p> <p>Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on<br /> Arab-Israeli relations</p> <p>Website: www.imra.org.il</p> Wed, 29 Jan 2025 12:07:38 -0500 https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74309