War and Peace Index: June 2008
Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

A large majority (60%) of the Israeli Jewish public now supports the deal in
which Israel is supposed to free all the Lebanese prisoners it holds,
including Samir Kuntar, in return for the kidnapped soldiers Eldad Regev and
Ehud Goldwasser (32% oppose it)- despite the prevailing assessment that the
kidnapped soldiers are no longer alive and despite the fact that last month
a majority of 46% opposed the deal while only 38% favored it. This is a
finding of the War and Peace Index survey for the month of June (conducted
on 30 June-1 July).

A substantial change in the Jewish public's positions, though not a
reversal, has also occurred on the emerging Israel-Hamas deal where, in
return for Gilad Shalit, Israel would free numerous Palestinian prisoners
including some with "blood on their hands." A large majority of 70%
(compared to 51% in December 2007) now supports a deal while 20% oppose it
(38% in the previous measurement). It appears, then, that the Jewish public
is now much more prepared than in the past to pay a very high price for IDF
soldiers who fall into enemy hands, alive or dead. This change in the public's
attitude can be ascribed to the intensive activity of the family members and
other civil groups, who have won wide and sympathetic coverage and backing
from the media, but also, apparently, to the government's decision on the
matter. This shift on the "deals" issue may indicate that on other issues in
the foreign and defense sphere as well, the taking of a governmental
decision would lead to a change and possibly even reversal in public
opinion.

As for the Egyptian-mediated "truce" between Israel and Hamas, public
opinion is split: 45% think the agreement is good for Israel while 48% do
not think so. However, an unequivocal majority of 79% say the agreement is
good for Hamas with only 14% saying it is not good in terms of Hamas's
interests. Nevertheless, the prevailing view (64%) is that Hamas will not
honor the agreement even if Israel does, with only 8.5% believing Israel
will not honor the agreement even if Hamas does so.

The doubts about the truce's chances of continuing are apparently
influenced not only by the suspicion toward Hamas but also by skepticism
about the motives of the main Israeli decision-makers. To the question of
whether Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's considerations for the decisions on the
truce agreement and on the prisoner exchange with Hizballah mainly involved
Israel's national and security interests or his own political and personal
interests, 51% of the Jewish public answered that his main considerations
are political-personal, 30% that they are mainly national/security, and
12.5% said both types of considerations play a part. A similar picture,
though slightly less negative, emerged for Ehud Barak: 45.5% of the
interviewees claimed he was mainly guided by political-personal
considerations, 35% by national/security considerations, and 11% said both
affected him. A breakdown of the responses by voting for the Knesset in the
last elections shows that in both cases Labor and Meretz voters credited the
decision-makers with mainly national and security considerations. Voters for
Likud and the rest of the right-wing and religious parties pointed to mainly
personal-political considerations. Kadima voters were split exactly in half
on Prime Minister Olmert's considerations, and split with a very slight lead
for politicalpersonal considerations on Defense Minister Barak.

The Jewish public's disapproval of the current national leadership emerges
unequivocally in answers to the question: "In your opinion, in light of the
negotiations with the Palestinians and Syria and the growing Iranian threat,
and in light of the corruption scandals among the leadership, does the
Labor-Kadima agreement that the present government will continue to serve
until the end of the Kadima primaries benefit or harm the Israeli national
interest?" only slightly more than one-quarter (28%) answered that the
agreement is beneficial with a majority of 50% saying it is harmful.

On the issue of the negotiations with Syria, it turns out the overwhelming
and consistent majority that has been found over the years opposing a return
of the Golan Heights to Syria in exchange for a peace agreement is
considerably narrowed if the question is formulated in up-to-date and
regional terms. Indeed, in many past measurements, the most recent of which
was last month, when the question was presented as: "For a full peace treaty
with Syria would you support or oppose a full withdrawal from the Golan
Heights?" a clear-cut majority of 75% opposed the treaty. However, when we
asked about support or opposition to an Israeli-Syrian peace agreement that
would include transferring sovereignty over the Golan to Syria under these
conditions: "appropriate security arrangements, demilitarization, allowing
most of the Israeli settlements and enterprises on the Golan to continue to
exist for many years, Israeli control over the Sea of Galilee, Syria
breaking off relations with Iran and clamping down on Hizballah and Hamas,"
public opinion is no longer clearly against an agreement but, instead,
divided: 45% of the public now supports such an agreement while 47% oppose
it.

The question is whether the public perceives those hypothetical conditions,
which were suggested by various actors indirectly connected to the
negotiations with Syria, as acceptable to both sides-in other words, whether
the interviewees see such an agreement as realistic. It turns out that at
least according to the majority of the Jewish public both Israel and Syria
would agree to sign such an agreement: 59% (vs. 29%) believe the Israeli
government would agree, and 50% (vs. 37%) think Syria would.

Finally, with the U.S. presidential elections approaching, we looked into
which of the two candidates-Obama or McCain-would be better for Israel. It
turns out McCain (46%) has a clear advantage over Obama (20%) among the
Israeli Jewish public. Nine percent said there was no difference between the
two candidates from Israel's standpoint. Note, however, that a relatively
high rate (25%) had no clear opinion on the matter. A breakdown of the
responses to this question by voting for the Knesset in the last elections
shows that McCain leads among the voters for all the parties except Meretz,
two-thirds of whose voters favor Obama.

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The War and Peace Index is funded by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel
Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar of Tel Aviv University and
Prof. Tamar Hermann of the Open University. The telephone interviews were
conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University on 30.6- 1.7,
2008, and included 590 interviewees who represent the adult Jewish and Arab
population of Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The
sampling error for a sample of this size is 4.5%.
For the survey data, see www.tau.ac.il/peace