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Monday, February 2, 2009
Israel Beiteinu poll:Likud 30 seats, Kadima 21-22, Israel Beiteinu 17-18 and Labor 16

Israel Beiteinu poll: Kadima could finish fourth
Gil Hoffman , THE JERUSALEM POST Feb. 1, 2009
www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304655746&pagename=JPArticle%2FShowFull

An in-depth survey conducted by Israel Beiteinu's American political
strategist, Arthur Finkelstein, found that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's
Kadima Party could finish in fourth place in the February 10 election.

According to a source in Israel Beiteinu, the poll predicted that the Likud
would win some 30 seats, Kadima 21-22, Israel Beiteinu 17-18 and Labor 16.
But Israel Beiteinu's voters were the most intense in their support and
therefore most likely to vote, while Kadima's were the least likely to do
so.

"There is a theoretical outcome where Kadima falls to fourth place, but the
chances of it happening are very slim," Israel Beiteinu strategist George
Birnbaum said. "People vote because of anger and emotion. Kadima doesn't
have anything emotional driving its voters or any ideology to rally behind."

Israel Beiteinu officials stressed that it was unlikely that Kadima would
become the fourth largest party, but they said that according to their
numbers, the chance of it winning the election was zero.

According to the data, the Likud's numbers had been steady, Labor's had gone
up and down, Kadima's had constantly slipped, and Israel Beiteinu's had
steadily grown. The police investigation against Lieberman and his
associates that intensified last week boosted his support.

"The majority of the public saw the investigation as purely political," an
Israel Beiteinu source said. "It just makes people angrier and increased the
intensity of our vote. It certainly didn't hurt us."

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