Shlomo Gazit: THE LIMITATIONS OF INTELLIGENCE
Submitted for publication in Hebrew in Maariv on 28 June 2009 - Excerpt
translated by IMRA

[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: While this is an excerpt from a column dealing
with the future of Iran, the very same observations could be used as a
warning against the military analysts who employ "best case scenarios" in
order to facilitate the conclusion that Israel can trade strategic depth for
gizmos and/or various arrangements on the ground.]

We must remember that one side can always make a mistaken decision, a
decision that results in the opposite of what was planned. More than that,
one never has control over unusual and unexpected incidents that can
radically change the situation.

19 years ago Saddam Hussein's army attacked Iran. Israel's Military
Intelligence then had the factual data regarding the numerical relationship
of forces between the two sides and on the basis of this data the head of
Israel's Military Intelligence stuck his neck out and said that Iraq would
succeed in destroying the Iranian forces within two to three weeks. The war
continued eight years, and a ceasefire was reached only after Iraq used
massive surface-surface rocket fire against Iranian population centers as
well as the chemical weapons it possessed.

Maj. Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Gazit served as the head of IDF Military
Intelligence after the Yom Kippur War