Maagar Mochot Poll finds strong support for Palestinian autonomy over
sovereign state ,freeze on Palestinian construction to match Jewish freeze

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 24 July 2009

A poll carried out this Sunday through Tuesday by Maagar Mohot Survey
Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz) finds Israeli Jews believe
(70%:15%) that Israel's interests are best served by a Palestinian autonomy
rather than a sovereign Palestinian state (72%:16% among Kadima voters). The
poll also found most (62%:27%) believe that PA leader Mahout Abbas wants to
ultimately replace Israel rather than establish a Palestinian state next to
it and that future Palestinian leaders won't honor agreements he signs
(58%:12%). The repondents also gave overwhelming support (71%:20%) for PM
Netanyahu insisting on a Palestinian construction freeze should Israel
accept a Jewish construction freeze (Labor Party voters 62%:24% for
Palestinian freeze). New settlement construction was seen as either more
or equally important as construction in the Negev and Galilee by 45% as
compared to 48% who favored Negev-Galilee construction.

The poll, carried out a week before the arrival of a number of American
officials to the region, also found that the public rejects the proposition
that Israel can rely on international security guarantees in the event of a
withdrawal while a plurality maintain that there is no practical difference
between the commitment America already has to Israel's security and a
written commitment it might be provided within the framework of a future
agreement.

The poll also found that most ( 61%) think poorly of Israelis who encourage
foreign countries to pressure Israel to adopt the policies they advocate.

With regard to the importance of the "demographic problem", the poll found
that Israeli Jews (72%:17%) believe it is an important factor for Israeli
decision makers dealing in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The telephone poll of a representative sample of 526 adult Israeli Jews, was
commissioned by Independent Media Review & Analysis (IMRA) and has a survey
error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Detailed results follow:

Where is it more important in your opinion to build and establish new Jewish
communities today: in the territories of Judea and Samaria or the Negev and
Galilee?
08% Judea and Samaria
37% Both to same extent
45% Judea and Samaria + Both to same extent
48% Negev and Galilee
07% Other replies

In your opinion should Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu insist that the
Palestinians also freeze all new construction in the territories of Judea
and Samaria, in order to prevent new facts in the area, in the case that
such a freeze also applies to Israel?
Yes 71% No 20% Other replies 9%

What do you think is the ultimate goal of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu
Mazen) and other leaders acting to establish a Palestinian state: a
Palestinian state that exists next to the State of Israel or a Palestinian
state that will ultimately exist in place of the State of Israel?
Next to Israel 27% replace Israel 62% Other replies 11%

To what extent do you think that the Palestinian commitment of Mahmoud Abbas
(Abu Mazen) also commits other Palestinian leaders in the future?
31% Not at all
27% Doesn't commit
58% Total no
18% So-so
08% Commits
04% Commits greatly
12% Total commits
12% Other replies

According to experts, the "demographic problem", according to which in the
future there could be a non-Jewish majority in the State of Israel, could
reach critical levels in decades, and there are experts who maintain there
this won't happen at all. Do you think that the "demographic problem"
should be an important or marginal factor for Israeli decision makers
dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Marginal 17% Important 72% Other replies 11%

What do you think better serves Israeli interests: a sovereign Palestinian
state or a Palestinian autonomy in which the Palestinians control their
daily lives but their borders and airspace are under Israeli control?
Sovereign Palestinian state 15% Palestinian autonomy 70% Other replies 15%

What do you think about Israelis who encourage foreign countries to apply
pressure on Israel so that it will adopt the policies they advocate?
Negative 61% Positive 4% Depends in the situation 26% Other replies 9%

There are those proposing that Israel be provided with international
security guarantee in return for withdrawal from the territories of Judea
and Samaria. Do you think that Israel can rely on such guarantees?
No 64% Yes 9% Depends on their nature 18% Other replies 9%

When dealing with international guarantees, do you think that there is a
practical difference between the American commitment today towards the
security of the State of Israel and a different formal American commitment
it might give within the framework of a future agreement?
No difference 42% Different 30% Other replies 28%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il