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Friday, September 11, 2009
US Pressure on Israel - A Guide for the Perplexed

US Pressure - A Guide for the Perplexed
Yoram Ettinger, "News 1st Class," Sept. 9, 2009

Fact: In 1950, the US Administration pressured Israel to refrain from Jewish
construction in Jerusalem and from declaring Jerusalem the capital of
Israel - Prime Minister Ben Gurion built, relocated government agencies and
thousands of immigrants to Jerusalem and declared Jerusalem the capital of
the Jewish State. In 1967, the US Administration pressured against
annexation of East Jerusalem - Prime Minister Eshkol annexed, reunited
Jerusalem, and built the formidable Ramat Eshkol neighborhood. In 1970, the
US Administration pressured Israel to relinquish control over parts of
Jerusalem - Prime Minister Golda Meir constructed the neighborhoods of Gilo,
Ramot and Neveh Yaakov (current population over 100,000!). The US
Administration pressured, Israel constructed, Jerusalem expanded and the
Jewish State earned strategic respect.

Fact: In 1948, the US Department of State, Pentagon and CIA pressured Ben
Gurion to avoid a declaration of independence. In 1961, President Kennedy
pressured to stop the construction of Israel's nuclear reactor. In 1967,
President Johnson pressured against pre-empting the Egypt-Syria-Jordan
military offensive. In 1977, President Carter pressured Prime Minister Begin
to abstain from direct negotiation with President Sadat and participate -
instead - in an international conference, focusing on the Palestinian issue
and Jerusalem. In 1981, President Reagan pressured Prime Minister Begin
against bombing Iraq's nuclear reactor. Defiance of pressure entails
short-term cost but enhances long-term national security. Submission to
pressure exacerbates pressure. Fending off pressure is required, in order to
attain strategic goals. Avoiding pressure - through concessions - leads to
departure from strategic goals.

Fact: US public and Congressional support of Israel is robust. "The
Rasmussen Report" documents a 70% support (Aug. 10, 2009) and "Gallup" ranks
Israel as the fourth-favored ally (March 3, 2009). 71 Senators signed an
August 10, 2009 letter calling upon President Obama to shift pressure from
Israel to Arab countries. The Democratic Chairman of the House Foreign
Relations Committee, Howard Berman, called upon Obama to end his
preoccupation with settlements. The Democratic Majority Leader, Steny Hoyer,
resents Obama's opposition to Jewish construction in East Jerusalem. The
strongest (Democratic) Senator, Daniel Inouye, Chairman of the
Appropriations Committee, is the most effective supporter of the US-Israel
connection since 1948. Obama cannot get his legislative agenda without
Inouye's support. While Congress has reservations about Israel's settlements
policy, Congress opposes sanctions against Israel.

Fact: Following the 1991 Gulf War, Israel asked for emergency assistance,
which Bush/Baker rejected, Congress supported and Israel received $650MN in
cash and $700MN in military systems. In 1990, Bush/Baker attempted to cut
5% of the foreign aid to Israel, on account of Israel's settlements
activity. Congress opposed and the initiative was rescinded. The Legislature
and the Executive are equal-in-power and fully independent of each other.
The US Congress has been a systematic bastion of support of the Jewish State
since before 1948.

Fact: President Obama has been transformed from a coattail President to an
anchor-chained President, taking a dive from a 65% approval rating in
January to less than 50% in September, the sharpest decline in recent
decades, other than President Ford's (due to his pardon of Nixon). Thus,
Democratic House candidates/members are experiencing the lowest ebb in two
years, while Republicans enjoy a systematic edge. Obama is confronted by an
effective Blue Dog Democratic opposition.

Fact: President Obama exercises psychological pressure against Israel. He
cannot exert an effective tangible pressure. He was not elected to uproot
Jewish settlements and prevent Jewish construction in Jerusalem. His
political future - and that of Democratic legislators - does not depend on
these issues. The Arab-Israeli conflict is not among Obama's top priorities,
and his position on Israel is not compatible with most Democrats. Obama
needs the support of Israel's friends on Capitol Hill, in order to advance
his primary domestic and national security/international agendas.

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