{Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

So here is the logic of DM Ehud Barak - the military genius who opposed
buying submarines that could launch Jericho missiles because he didn't think
Israel needed a second strike capability:

#1. "If the other side believes it is possible to bring down Israel...it
will prefer to do so"

#2. "Just like the familiar reality in the Middle East, we will
immediately sit down [with Syria] after such a war and negotiate on the
exact same issues we have been discussing with them for the past 15 years."

Questions:

#1. And if, thanks to an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan, Syria "believes
it is possible to bring down Israel" then what?

#2. And if Israel sits down with Syria after a war, why conclude that there
would be any greater logic to make a dangerous concession of leaving the
Golan just because there was a war? The Egyptian Sinai model, with a huge
peninsula available for different levels of demilitarization - far away from
Cairo, is hardly comparable to the tiny Golan that puts Damascus within
easy striking range - and the move was premised on the assertion that
somehow the outcome of the Yom Kippur War of 1973 convinced Egypt that
Israel could not be beaten (I appreciate that this logic is hard to follow -
since by the same token the message of the Yom Kippur War could have just as
easily been for Egypt that they should switch to American weapons before
trying to destroy the Jewish State but that's not the popular narrative).

#3. Here's a novel suggestion for the people drawing salaries in the
Israeli defense field: how about coming up with some ideas so that should
Syria indeed decide to attack the Jewish State in the coming years, that the
consequences for Damascus be so serious that at the end of the exchange they
are the ones telling their citizens that the task of restoring the Golan
will have ton be assigned to a future generation?

Barak: War with Syria won't solve diplomatic issues

By Amos Harel Haaretz 2 February 2010
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1146908.html

The stalled peace process with Syria could bode ill for the future of the
Middle East, Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned yesterday.

Speaking to the Israel Defense Forces top brass, Barak said: "Just like the
familiar reality in the Middle East, we will immediately sit down [with
Syria] after such a war and negotiate on the exact same issues we have been
discussing with them for the past 15 years."

The defense minister has long called for a resumption of peace talks with
Damascus, yet his warning of a regional war is unusual - both in its sharp
tone and the forum in which it was aired.

"A political arrangement is not the dream come true of the other side,"
Barak said. "This will be a choice of 'no choice.' If the other side
believes it is possible to bring down Israel, to wage a battle of attrition
against it or lure it into a honey trap, then it will prefer to do so."

With regard to tensions with Hezbollah, Barak said, "The government of
Lebanon is responsible for everything Hezbollah does. The organization has
an internal Lebanese identity, in addition to its well-known affiliation to
Syria and Iran. If Israel is attacked, we will not limit ourselves only to
Hezbollah targets."

In commenting on the Iranian nuclear threat, Barak said: "I repeat: All
options are on the table and we mean it."

He added that the United States will lead the international drive for
sanctions beginning next month, however, "the Americans' chances for
enlisting the Chinese and others in sanctions are not great, given the
recent events in China and the U.S."

As for the Goldstone report, Barak called it "dishonest, biased and
one-sided," and said he "rejected it from the foundation." He said that UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was very impressed with the presentation given
to the UN by the military advocate general, "and he even said so to me in
private."

Barak said it would be a mistake to establish a commission of inquiry over
the report, and that Israel should make do with a panel of legal experts
that would study the quality of the IDF's investigation and the government's
directives to the army before and during the Gaza operation.

Also commenting on the Goldstone report, IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi
told the officers, "We must deal with the challenges presented by this
report, but not by means of a commission of inquiry."