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Saturday, August 28, 2010
[formatting corrected] AWRAD poll of Palestinians 13.7% oppose violence, 75% reject demilitarized state

[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

The results of the latest poll of Palestinians before the upcoming
Washington photo op appear to indicate that President Obama's take on
Palestinian attitudes towards peace and their ideas about final status
conditions is, to put it mildly, off base.

Here are some choice results:

With regards to rebuilding confidence in the peace process please indicate
which of the following options you consider to be 'Essential', 'Desirable',
'Acceptable', 'Tolerable' or 'Unacceptable'.

Resist occupation through violence to achieve a state

Essential 36.7 Desirable 18.7 Acceptable 16.8
Tolerable 14.0 Unacceptable 13.7

With regards to the final status of Palestine and Israel please indicate
which of the following you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable,
Tolerable or Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.

Historic Palestine - from the Jordan River to the sea as a national homeland
for Palestinians

Essential 78.2 Desirable 12.5 Acceptable 4.3
Tolerable 3.1 Unacceptable 2.0

With regards to refugees please indicate which of the following options you
consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or Unacceptable
as part of a peace agreement.

The number of refugees returning to Israel should be limited to family
members and numbers agreed between Israel and Palestine

Essential 3.7 Desirable 7.8 Acceptable 11.9
Tolerable 16.9 Unacceptable 59.6

With regards to the issue of security please indicate which of the following
options you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or
Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.

Palestine should be demilitarized, including the disbanding of militias and
the standing down of the military.

Essential 7.8 Desirable 5.5 Acceptable 4.0
Tolerable 7.6 Unacceptable 75.0

With regards to Jerusalem please indicate which of the following options you
consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or Unacceptable
as part of a peace agreement.

All of Jerusalem (East and West) should remain in Palestine

Essential 84.1 Desirable 10.3 Acceptable 2.2
Tolerable 1.6 Unacceptable 1.7

Do you believe that Palestinians and Israelis will coexist if Palestinians
gain their own independent state?
Yes 16.7 Maybe 37.7 No 42.3 Don't know 3.2]

========
Results of an Opinion Poll
Publication Date: 28 August 2010
Field work: 8-14 August 2010
Sample Size: 3,001 Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza
Margin of error: +/-1.5 %

Arab World for Research & Development
Ramallah - Gaza, Palestine
Tele-fax: 00970-2-2950957/8
E-mail: awrad@awrad.org
Website: www.awrad.org
www.awrad.org/pdfs/English%20tables%20part%201%20peace%20August%202010.pdf

Section One: Progress and responsibility
With regards to responsibility for the lack of progress in the peace process
please indicate what issues you consider to be Very Significant, Of Some
Significance, Of Little Significance, Of No Significance, or I don't know.

The United States because of their lack of commitment to a Palestinian state
Very Significant 69.4 Of Some Significance 14.1
Of Little Significance 9.2 Of No Significance 5.0
I don't know 2.3

The Israeli people because they are not ready to make peace
Very Significant 69.3 Of Some Significance 16.2
Of Little Significance 6.7 Of No Significance 5.9
I don't know 1.9

The Palestinian people because they are divided by the political differences
of Hamas and Fateh
Very Significant 68.4 Of Some Significance 14.7
Of Little Significance 5.7 Of No Significance 9.4
I don't know 1.8

Arab governments because they are divided on the future of Palestine
Very Significant 62.8 Of Some Significance 19.2
Of Little Significance 9.7 Of No Significance 6.2
I don't know 2.1

The United Nations because of failure to implement its resolutions
Very Significant 61.5 Of Some Significance 18.0
Of Little Significance 10.9 Of No Significance 6.9
I don't know 2.7

The Quartet because it is ineffective
Very Significant 58.6 Of Some Significance 19.1
Of Little Significance 11.0 Of No Significance 6.6
I don't know 4.8

The Israeli public because of their refusal to accept 1967 borders
Very Significant 57.4 Of Some Significance 21.0
Of Little Significance 10.9 Of No Significance 6.7
I don't know 4.0

The Palestinian government because they are too weak to compromise
Very Significant 51.4 Of Some Significance 20.9\
Of Little Significance 12.7 Of No Significance 11.2
I don't know 3.7

The Israeli government because they are too weak to compromise
Very Significant 22.2 Of Some Significance 13.3
Of Little Significance 16.3 Of No Significance 39.6
I don't know 8.6

Section Two: Peace progress and a final status agreement

With regards to the peace process and reaching a final status agreement,
which issues do you consider to be Very Significant, Of Some Significance,
Of Little Significance Of No Significance or I don't know?

Establishing an independent and sovereign Palestinian state
Very Significant 91.7 Of Some Significance 5.9
Of Little Significance 1.1 Of No Significance 0.9
I don't know 0.5

The status of Jerusalem
Very Significant 91.0 Of Some Significance 6.5
Of Little Significance 1.6 Of No Significance 0.5
I don't know 0.4

Security for Palestine
Very Significant 86.2 Of Some Significance 10.4
Of Little Significance 2.5 Of No Significance 0.4
I don't know 0.6

The rights of refugees
Very Significant 83.2 Of Some Significance 10.7
Of Little Significance 4.5 Of No Significance 0.9
I don't know 0.6

Settlements in the Occupied Territories
Very Significant 81.3 Of Some Significance 12.8
Of Little Significance 4.3 Of No Significance 0.9
I don't know 0.6

Agreeing to borders for Palestine
Very Significant 80.2 Of Some Significance 14.0
Of Little Significance 3.4 Of No Significance 1.7
I don't know 0.7

Rights to natural resources (water and air)
Very Significant 79.7 Of Some Significance 12.6
Of Little Significance 6.1 Of No Significance 1.0
I don't know 0.6

The management of holy sites
Very Significant 79.2 Of Some Significance 16.0
Of Little Significance 3.5 Of No Significance 0.5
I don't know 0.8

Peace between Israel and the Arab World
Very Significant 45.7 Of Some Significance 16.6
Of Little Significance 15.3 Of No Significance 18.7\
I don't know 3.7

Section Three: Rebuilding confidence in the peace process

With regards to rebuilding confidence in the peace process please indicate
which of the following options you consider to be 'Essential', 'Desirable',
'Acceptable', 'Tolerable' or 'Unacceptable'.

Israel should remove all check points
Essential 88.0 Desirable 9.1 Acceptable 1.8
Tolerable 0.6 Unacceptable 0.4

Israel should demolish the wallEssential
87.7 Desirable 7.7 Acceptable 2.2
Tolerable 1.2 Unacceptable 1.2

Israel should freeze settlements in the West Bank
Essential 86.5 Desirable 9.1 Acceptable 2.1
Tolerable 0.8 Unacceptable 1.5

Israel and Egypt should lift the siege of Gaza
Essential 79.6 Desirable 11.6 Acceptable 4.1
Tolerable 3.0 Unacceptable 1.7

Israel should release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit
Essential 71.5 Desirable 14.4 Acceptable 6.5
Tolerable 3.5 Unacceptable 4.0

The Obama Administration should place a high priority on Middle East peace
Essential 65.0 Desirable 21.2 Acceptable 6.3
Tolerable 2.8 Unacceptable 4.7

EU and US should work with Egypt to end conflict between Hamas and Fateh
Essential 47.8 Desirable 28.7 Acceptable 10.7
Tolerable 5.2 Unacceptable 7.5

The Arab League should keep pushing for the Arab Peace Initiative
Essential 45.1 Desirable 25.5 Acceptable 15.0
Tolerable 7.6 Unacceptable 6.8

Resist occupation through violence to achieve a state
Essential 36.7 Desirable 18.7 Acceptable 16.8
Tolerable 14.0 Unacceptable 13.7

Achieve a state through negotiations
Essential 31.4 Desirable 24.3 Acceptable 17.2
Tolerable 12.5 Unacceptable 14.5

If there is no agreement, have an internationally supervised truce for 5
years
Essential 26.9 Desirable 21.2 Acceptable 19.0
Tolerable 15.3 Unacceptable 17.6

Resist occupation through non- violent civil disobedience to achieve a state
Essential 26.9 Desirable 22.2 Acceptable 17.8
Tolerable 11.1 Unacceptable 21.9

Armed groups should stop firing rockets from Gaza
Essential 25.9 Desirable 17.3 Acceptable 15.7
Tolerable 12.7 Unacceptable 28.4

Palestinians should continue a unilateral ceasefire to put pressure on
Israel
Essential 19.3 Desirable 16.6 Acceptable 14.5
Tolerable 12.7 Unacceptable 36.9

Hamas should recognize Israel if Israel agrees to withdraw from the Occupied
Territories
Essential 16.5 Desirable 13.8 Acceptable 16.2
Tolerable 17.0 Unacceptable 36.5

Israel should be allowed to build the wall on the 1967 boarder
Essential 9.5 Desirable 6.2 Acceptable 7.4
Tolerable 12.7 Unacceptable 64.2

Section Four: Final Status (The state)
With regards to the final status of Palestine and Israel please indicate
which of the following you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable,
Tolerable or Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.

Historic Palestine - from the Jordan River to the sea as a national homeland
for Palestinians
Essential 78.2 Desirable 12.5 Acceptable 4.3
Tolerable 3.1 Unacceptable 2.0

Two state solution - two states for two peoples: Israel and Palestine
according to UN resolutions
Essential 17.7 Desirable 15.7 Acceptable 13.6
Tolerable 15.2 Unacceptable 37.7

One joint state - a state in which Israelis and Palestinians are equal
citizens between the Jordan River and the sea.
Essential 9.6 Desirable 14.8 Acceptable 13.5
Tolerable 15.0 Unacceptable 47.1

One shared state - bi-national federal state in which Israelis and
Palestinians share power
Essential 5.3 Desirable 9.3 Acceptable 12.6
Tolerable 16.5 Unacceptable 56.2

Confederation between West Bank and Jordan and between Gaza and Egypt
Essential 4.7 Desirable 8.2 Acceptable 9.8
Tolerable 13.5 Unacceptable 63.8

Which one of the above-listed scenarios do you believe is most
likely to take place in the coming 10 years?

10.4% Historic Palestine - From the Jordan River to the sea as a national
homeland for the Palestinians

02.4% One joint state - A state in which Israelis and Palestinians are equal
citizens between the Jordan River and the sea

01.0% One shared state - Bi-national federal state in which Israelis and
Palestinians share power

09.1% Two state solution - Two states for two peoples: Israel and Palestine
according to UN resolutions

03.6% Confederation between West Bank and Jordan and between Gaza and Egypt

37.9% No change in the status quo will take place

26.9% The situation will only change for the worse

08.7% Don't know

Section five: Refugees

With regards to refugees please indicate which of the following options you
consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or Unacceptable
as part of a peace agreement.

Right of return and compensation
Essential 87.5 Desirable 8.0 Acceptable 1.9
Tolerable 1.6 Unacceptable 1.1

Refugees who do not wish to return to Israel should be offered compensation
for their loss and a choice of resettlement in Palestine (West Bank/Gaza) or
another Arab countryEssential
13.1 Desirable 18.4 Acceptable 22.0
Tolerable 17.9 Unacceptable 28.6

Right of return without compensation
Essential 18.9 Desirable 19.7 Acceptable 14.7
Tolerable 12.4 Unacceptable 34.2

Return to Palestine (WB/G) within agreed borders
Essential 11.4 Desirable 15.5 Acceptable 17.8
Tolerable 19.3 Unacceptable 36.1

The number of refugees returning to Israel should be limited to family
members and numbers agreed between Israel and Palestine
Essential 3.7 Desirable 7.8 Acceptable 11.9
Tolerable 16.9 Unacceptable 59.6

The UN should close the refugee camps and resettle them with compensation
outside of Israel
Essential 12.6 Desirable 9.9 Acceptable 10.8
Tolerable 15.6 Unacceptable 51.0

Under Israeli recognition of the suffering of the Palestinian refugees,
compensation without right of return
Essential 4.8 Desirable 6.5 Acceptable 8.1
Tolerable 12.6 Unacceptable 68.0

Which one of the above-listed scenarios do you believe is most likely to
take place in the coming 10 years? %

12.1% Right of return and compensation

02.7% Right of return without compensation

03.2% Refugees who do not wish to return to Israel would be offered
compensation for their loss and a choice of resettlement in Palestine (West
Bank Gaza) or another Arab country

01.4% The number of refugees returning to Israel would be limited to family
members and numbers agreed between Israel and Palestine

01.9% Return to Palestine (WB/G) within agreed borders

01.7% Under Israeli recognition of the suffering of the Palestinian
refugees, compensation without right of return

03.2% The UN would close the refugee camps and resettle them with
compensation outside of Israel

45.7% No change in the status of refugees will take place

21.9% The situation for refugees will only change for the worse

06.0% Don't know

Section Six: Security

With regards to the issue of security please indicate which of the following
options you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or
Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.

Palestine should have an army
Essential 81.7 Desirable 12.2 Acceptable 3.4
Tolerable 1.5 Unacceptable 1.1

Palestine should have a strong police force
Essential 81.0 Desirable 13.4 Acceptable 3.6
Tolerable 1.3 Unacceptable 0.7

Israel should be demilitarized, including the standing down of the military
Essential 41.0 Desirable 21.8 Acceptable 10.6
Tolerable 10.6 Unacceptable 16.0

Under the supervision of this force Palestinians will take responsibility
for all security on and inside their borders
Essential 34.2 Desirable 20.9 Acceptable 17.1
Tolerable 11.7 Unacceptable 16.2

On signing a peace agreement a force of international, regional and Arab
states should replace the IDF in the Occupied Territories for an agreed
period
Essential 25.5 Desirable 20.6 Acceptable 17.5
Tolerable 13.0 Unacceptable 23.4

If no agreement is reached within two years this force will replace the IDF
in the Occupied Territories without further delay
Essential 22.9 Desirable 21.6 Acceptable 19.0
Tolerable 15.1 Unacceptable 21.4

The international force will ensure security on the Jordanian border
Essential 22.7 Desirable 18.7 Acceptable 19.9
Tolerable 16.7 Unacceptable 22.0

Palestine should be demilitarized, including the disbanding of militias and
the standing down of the military.
Essential 7.8 Desirable 5.5 Acceptable 4.0
Tolerable 7.6 Unacceptable 75.0

For an agreed period Israel will have access to the Jordanian border for
reasons of security
Essential 6.2 Desirable 9.6 Acceptable 13.5
Tolerable 21.2 Unacceptable 49.5

For an agreed period Israel will have observation posts in the Palestinian
state for reasons of security
Essential 5.4 Desirable 8.7 Acceptable 11.3
Tolerable 16.7 Unacceptable 57.9

Section Seven: Settlements
With Regards to the settlements please indicate which of the following
options you consider to be
Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or Unacceptable as part of a
peace agreement.

All the settlers should leave the Occupied Territories and settlements
closed
Essential 90.8 Desirable 6.3 Acceptable 1.4
Tolerable 0.8 Unacceptable 0.7

Dismantle most of the settlements, move settlers to large blocks and
exchange land
Essential 9.6 Desirable 9.0 Acceptable 10.0
Tolerable 17.9 Unacceptable 53.6

Settlers can stay in Palestine (WB) if they take up Palestinian citizenship
Essential 8.1 Desirable 8.6 Acceptable 11.7
Tolerable 16.7 Unacceptable 54.9

Which one of the above-listed scenarios do you believe is most likely to
take place in the coming 10 years?

12.7% All the settlers should leave the Occupied Territories and settlements
closed

01.8% Settlers can stay in Palestine (WB) if they take up Palestinian
citizenship

06.1% Dismantle most of the settlements, move settlers to large blocks and
exchange land

38.9% No change in the status of settlements will take place

31.9% The situation regarding settlements will only change for the worse

08.6% Don't know

Section Eight: Borders

With Regards to the borders please indicate which of the following options
you consider to be
Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or Unacceptable as part of a
peace agreement.

Israel should withdraw to the 1967 boarder between Israel and Palestine
Essential 68.4 Desirable 11.7 Acceptable 6.7
Tolerable 4.5 Unacceptable 8.7

1967 border adjusted through agreement of equivalent exchange of land
Essential 15.9 Desirable 17.2 Acceptable 16.3
Tolerable 16.6 Unacceptable 34.0

Border established by the security wall
Essential 7.0 Desirable 6.0 Acceptable 6.7
Tolerable 12.1 Unacceptable 68.2

Which one of the above-listed scenarios do you believe is most likely to
take place in the coming 10 years?

15.0% Israel should withdraw to the 1967 border between Israel and
Palestine

04.7% 1967 border adjusted through agreement of equivalent exchange of land

03.3% Border established by the security wall

40.8% No change in the status of borders will take place

26.5% The situation on borders will only change for the worse

09.8% Don't know

Section Nine: Jerusalem

With regards to Jerusalem please indicate which of the following options you
consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or Unacceptable
as part of a peace agreement.

All of Jerusalem (East and West) should remain in Palestine
Essential 84.1 Desirable 10.3 Acceptable 2.2
Tolerable 1.6 Unacceptable 1.7

Jerusalem should be internationalized as a city of peace under the authority
of a Multi-faith Municipal Covenant
Essential 12.9 Desirable 15.6 Acceptable 17.5
Tolerable 14.7 Unacceptable 39.3

Jerusalem should be divided into East and West along the pre-1967 border
Essential 10.4 Desirable 10.8 Acceptable 11.9
Tolerable 16.6 Unacceptable 50.3

Jerusalem should be internationalized as a city of peace under the authority
of the UN
Essential 10.8 Desirable 11.9 Acceptable 11.9
Tolerable 14.6 Unacceptable 50.9

Divide the city according to Palestinian and Israeli current neighborhoods
Essential 6.3 Desirable 9.6 Acceptable 13.1
Tolerable 16.9 Unacceptable 54.1

Which one of the above-listed scenarios do you believe is most likely to
take place in the coming 10 years?

08.6% All of Jerusalem (East and West) should remain in Palestine

01.6% Jerusalem should be internationalized as a city of peace under the
authority
of the UN

01.8% Jerusalem should be internationalized as a city of peace under the
authority
of a Multi-faith Municipal Covenant

02.6% Divide the city according to Palestinian and Israeli current
neighborhoods

06.6% Jerusalem should be divided into East and West along the pre-1967
border

38.1% No change in the status of Jerusalem will take place

32.9% The situation of Jerusalem will only change for the worse

07.8% Don't know

Section Ten: Holy Sites

With regards to Holy sites please indicate which of the following options
you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or
Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.

East Jerusalem, including holy sites, under Palestinian sovereignty
Essential 82.0 Desirable 10.9 Acceptable 2.6
Tolerable 2.1 Unacceptable 2.3

Freedom of religion and free access for everyone to the holy sites. No side
will have sovereignty on the holy sites. Israel will be 'guardian' of the
Western Wall and the Palestinian State 'guardian' of
the Islamic holy sites. The status quo of Christian holy sites will remain.
Essential 12.1 Desirable 11.9 Acceptable 14.7
Tolerable 16.5 Unacceptable 44.8

The Western Wall will be under Israeli sovereignty, Christian and Muslim
holy sites, including the Temple Mount, will be under Palestinian
sovereignty
Essential 9.5 Desirable 12.3 Acceptable 13.3
Tolerable 15.8 Unacceptable 49.0

Neutral body, e.g. the UN will be the guardian of the holy sites
Essential 9.3 Desirable 10.5 Acceptable 10.9
Tolerable 16.9 Unacceptable 52.4

Section Eleven: Implementation

With regards to the implementation of a peace agreement please indicate
which of the following
Options you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or
Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.

All prisoners shall be released
Essential 90.6 Desirable 6.0 Acceptable 2.1
Tolerable 0.9 Unacceptable 0.3

Any peace agreement will be subject to a referendum by the people of
Palestine
Essential 76.4 Desirable 13.4 Acceptable 5.7
Tolerable 2.5 Unacceptable 2.0

The peace agreement will be the end of conflict between both parties and
enforced by both parties.
Essential 53.3 Desirable 20.9 Acceptable 11.9\
Tolerable 8.6 Unacceptable 5.3

An international body acceptable to both parties will be established to
monitor and enforce the full implementation of the agreement
Essential 48.0 Desirable 22.8 Acceptable 14.7
Tolerable 9.1 Unacceptable 5.5

Section Twelve: the Mitchell Mission
How do you evaluate the proximity talks that are lead by the US Envoy George
Mitchell?

Great Progress 1.4 Little Progress 12.3
No Progress 56.8 Regress 19.7 Don't Know 9.8

Do you think that the current proximity talks should continue or should
Palestinians and Israelis engage in direct negotiations immediately?

20.8% Proximity talks should continue until Israel declares a freeze on
settlements

31.0% Direct negotiations are the better option

37.7% I don't care for negotiations at this stage as they make no difference

10.5% Unsure/Don't know

If President Abbas decides to engage in direct negotiations with Israel on
the final status issues, would you support him?

10.7% Yes, only if Israel commits to a freeze on settlements

09.3% Yes, only if the international community gives assurances that the
process will lead to a Palestinian State within a timetable

44.8% Yes, under both of the above-mentioned conditions at the same time

07.7% Yes, without conditions.

21.6% No, I will not support these negotiations

05.8% Unsure/Don't know

What is the best mechanism to engage in a negotiation process with Israel?

34.3% Negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis with no intermediaries

06.3% Negotiations with an American mediation

31.3% An international conference under the supervision of the UN

28.2% None of the above

Which of the following documents do you prefer to be the frame of reference
for the negotiations?

24.% UN resolutions
12.6% Road Map
31.9% The Arab Initiative
05.9% Other
24.9% Don't Know

In your opinion, which one of the following is the best means in terms of
its capability to end the occupation and to establish a Palestinian state?

34.6% Negotiations until reaching an agreement between the two parties

25.9% Violent attacks against Israeli military and settlers

19.4% A non-violent popular uprising

06.5% Violent attacks against civilians in Israel through suicide bombers
and any
other means

06.2% Attacks against the Israeli military only

07.3% Other

In your opinion, do you think that the negotiations will ever lead to a
Palestinian state with full sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza Strip?

Yes 18.2 Maybe 46.8 No 31.8 Don't know 3.2

Do you believe that Palestinians and Israelis will coexist if Palestinians
gain their own independent state?
Yes 16.7 Maybe 37.7 No 42.3 Don't know 3.2

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