At the same time, the majority (54%) of the entire Jewish public does not
agree with the claim that continued rule in the territories will result in a
state that does not have a Jewish majority. Moreover, 54% believe that
continued control of the territories will not prevent Israel from remaining
a Jewish and democratic state.

The Peace Index: January 2012
Date Published: 08/02/2012
Survey dates: 30/01/2012 - 31/01/2012
The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Conflict Resolution
at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute
www.peaceindex.org Email: info@peaceindex.org

Summary of the Findings

What will the next elections be about? Amid talk of advancing the Knesset
elections (88% of respondents said they are sure or think that they will
vote in such elections), we checked what the Jewish voters see as the most
important factors in deciding which party should receive their vote. A clear
majority (82%) said the party’s position on socioeconomic issues would
greatly influence their vote. Lower rates of respondents cited the leader of
the party and the party's position on foreign and security issues (both
77%). In descending order, the remaining responses included the party’s
position on matters of religion and state (66%), its position on the future
of the territories (62%), its chances to become part of the government
(52%), its chances to form the government (50.5%), and the number of women
on its list (32%).

The socioeconomic issue above all? The centrality of the socioeconomic issue
also emerged from the Jewish public’s ranking of the goals the government
should pursue. At the top is reducing the socioeconomic gaps (34%).
Considerably behind it are: improving the security situation (20%), a peace
agreement with the Palestinians (17%), and creating housing solutions at
reasonable prices (13%). A good deal farther behind are a proper balance
between the rights and obligations of the haredim and the non-haredim (5%),
a separation between wealth and government, and improving Israel’s status in
the international arena (4% each). If we combine the gap-reduction and
housing responses, it turns out that about half of the Jewish public (47%)
sees the socioeconomic sphere as most important.

Keep the protest going? With a majority of the Jewish public (73.5%)
indicating that they think that the government will not implement most of
the Trajtenberg Committee’s recommendations, it makes sense that about
two-thirds (64%) support renewing the summer's socio-economic protest.

How is the government doing? The prevailing view is that in socioeconomic
areas, the Netanyahu government is doing more damage than it is contributing
to the national interest: 55% of respondents expressed this view regarding
the reduction of gaps, 52% regarding the fight against corruption, 51%
regarding the creation of appropriate housing solutions, and 50% regarding
the separation of wealth and government. The government gets good grades for
its contribution to encouraging economic growth (48% think it is
contributing greatly or moderately), and 61% affirm that the government is
greatly or moderately contributing to the country’s security situation.
Opinions are divided on whether the government is improving or damaging
Israel’s international standing, with a slight tilt in the positive
direction.

Territories or a Jewish state? Again we found a large majority (76%)
preferring that Israel remain a country with a Jewish majority, with
one-quarter preferring that Israel continue to rule all of the Land of
Israel west of the Jordan. Asked how they would respond if they knew that
"continued Israeli rule over the West Bank would lead to one state for Jews
and Arabs in the entire Land of Israel that would not have a Jewish
majority,” the majority (63%) answered that in this case they would oppose
continued rule in the territories. However, the majority (54%) did not agree
with the claim that continued rule in the territories will result in a
country without a Jewish majority. Some 54% believe that continued rule in
the territories will not prevent Israel from remaining a Jewish and
democratic state. In other words, the public indeed prefers that Israel be a
Jewish state over continued rule over the whole Land of Israel, but most of
it does not believe there is a contradiction between the two objectives.

The Findings in Detail

In light of what is now being said in the media, and with politicians and
others hinting that the Knesset elections will be advanced, we decided this
month to look into the factors that are likely to impact the next round of
voting, at least as it appears at present. First—perhaps influenced by the
summer protest and the resulting political tremors and perhaps not, but
clearly in contrast to claims about the public’s political apathy—a large
majority of respondents expressed a desire to take part in the upcoming
elections: 88% of the Jewish public are sure or think they will vote, and
68% of the Arab public say the same.

We therefore checked the importance that Jewish and Arab voters assign to
different issues as factors affecting their decision as to which party will
receive their vote. A clear majority of the Jews (82%) defined the party’s
position on the socioeconomic issue as important or very important. Lower
rates cited the leader of the party and the party's position on foreign and
security issues (77% each). In descending order, the remaining responses
chosen included the party’s position on matters of religion and state (66%)
and on the future of the territories (62%), the composition of its list of
candidates (55%), its chances of becoming part of the government (52%), its
chances to form the government (50.5%), and the number of women on the list
(32%). The Arab public assigned less importance to each of these issues, but
here too the socioeconomic issue prevailed, along with the party’s position
on the future of the territories (62% defined these two factors as very
important or important). In descending order, the remaining responses chosen
included: foreign and defense policy (57%), the leader of the party (53%),
the composition of the Knesset list (50%), and the chances to form a
government (which is not realistic for voters for Arab parties and,
apparently as a result, came out low at 42%). As with Jewish voters, the
number of women on the list came in last, but it was given slightly higher
importance than it received among the Jewish public (34%).

The socioeconomic issue’s centrality also emerges from the public's ranking
of the goals that the government should pursue. In the Jewish public’s
opinion, topping the national priorities today is the goal of reducing
socioeconomic gaps (34%).

Considerably behind it are improving the security situation (20%), a peace
agreement with the Palestinians (17%), and creating housing solutions at
reasonable prices (13%). A good deal farther behind are establishing a
proper balance between the rights and obligations of haredim and non-haredim
(5%), a separation between wealth and government, and improving Israel’s
status in the international arena (4% each). If we combine the gap-reduction
and housing responses, it turns out that about half of the Jewish public
(47%) sees the socioeconomic sphere as most important. A segmentation of the
responses by self-definition on the right-left spectrum shows that all camps
assign the greatest importance to the socioeconomic issue, although 93% of
those defining themselves as left-wing assigned this importance, as compared
to 87% of centrists and 83% of respondents on the right. The gaps are much
greater regarding achieving peace with the Palestinians, with only 27% of
the right defining this goal as important or very important, compared to 70%
of the left.

The Arab public clearly sees a different order of importance. At the top,
they rank the goal of signing a peace agreement with the Palestinians (48%
ranked it as most important), followed by reducing socioeconomic gaps (21%
put it first) and improving Israel’s security situation (11%). Less than 6%
of the Arab public assigns substantial importance to the rest of the goals
that they were asked to consider.

The public sees a gap between the government’s order of priorities and its
own. This emerges from the fact that most of the Jewish public (73.5%) does
not expect the government to implement most of the socio-economic
recommendations of the Trajtenberg Committee. It makes sense, then, that
about two-thirds (64%) support renewing the summer's protest. In the Arab
public, only 56% think the government will fail to carry out most of the
recommendations of the Trajtenberg Committee, 28% think the government will
fulfill them, and 16% do not know. Yet, despite these gaps between Arabs and
Jews when it comes to the government’s intentions, 62% of the Arab
respondents say the protest should continue—almost identical to the Jewish
rate.

The prevailing view in the Jewish public is that in socioeconomic areas the
Netanyahu government is doing more damage than it is contributing to the
national interest: 55% responded in this manner regarding reducing
socioeconomic gaps, 52% regarding the fight against corruption, 51%
regarding creating appropriate housing solutions, and 50% regarding creating
a separation between wealth and government. The government gets good grades
for its contribution to encouraging economic growth (48% think the
government is contributing greatly or moderately), and 61% of respondents
affirm that the government is greatly or moderately contributing to the
country’s security situation. Opinions are divided on whether the government
is benefiting or damaging Israel’s international standing, with a slight
tilt in the positive direction. In the Arab public the picture is completely
different: 72% of Arab respondents think the government is damaging Israel’s
security situation and 60% think the same regarding Israel’s international
diplomatic standing. The government’s economic performance is perceived less
negatively in the Arab public, though, than it is in the Jewish public.

This month, we again checked the Jewish public’s preferences regarding
Israel being a state with a Jewish majority or continuing control over the
West Bank. Again we found a large majority (76%) preferring that Israel
remain a state with a Jewish majority, with one-quarter preferring that it
continue to rule all of the Land of Israel west of the Jordan. Asked how
they would respond if they “knew that continued Israeli control of the West
Bank would lead to one state for Jews and Arabs in the entire Land of Israel
that would not have a Jewish majority,” the majority (63%) of Jewish
respondents answered that they would oppose continued control of the
territories. Here, however, the gaps between those defining themselves as
right-wing or left-wing are considerable: about a third of those who define
themselves as right-wing, compared to 18% of those calling themselves
centrists and only a few percent of those identifying themselves as left,
say they would support continued control of the territories even if it led
to a joint entity without a Jewish majority.

At the same time, the majority (54%) of the entire Jewish public does not
agree with the claim that continued rule in the territories will result in a
state that does not have a Jewish majority. Moreover, 54% believe that
continued control of the territories will not prevent Israel from remaining
a Jewish and democratic state. Here too there are wide gaps based on
political self-definition: a large majority of respondents on the right
(62%) and a considerable majority of those in the center (57%) do not see a
problem here, while a sizable majority (65%) of respondents on the left says
continued control will in fact prevent Israel from being both Jewish and
democratic. In other words, the public indeed prefers that Israel be a
Jewish state over continued rule over the whole Land of Israel, but most of
it does not see a contradiction between these two objectives.
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The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. This
month's survey was conducted by telephone on January 30-31, 2012 by the
Dahaf Institute. The survey included 602 respondents, who constitute a
representative sample of the adult Jewish population of Israel. The
measurement error for a sample of this size is 4.5%; statistical processing
was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.