Weekly Commentary: Abbas will drop the ball?

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 10 May, 2012

When Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu dramatically increased the size of
his ruling majority by bringing in the Kadima party he committed himself to
a “do list”.

And he is already making his way through the list – announcing today that he
expects within 75 days to pass legislation replacing the Tal Law dealing
with national service.

That “do list” includes the Palestinians.

Consider Mr. Netanyahu’s predicament: with his huge coalition basically
guaranteeing that he will remain in power until at least November 2013, he
will be hard pressed to attribute his negotiating positions to coalition
needs rather than his own personal red lines. This will make it
considerably harder to face up to pressure.

But it takes two to tango.

So here’s the question:

Will Mahmoud Abbas continue to insist on preconditions for the renewal of
serious negotiations – requiring a freeze on construction in Judea, Samaria
and much of Jerusalem? Or will he challenge Netanyahu to show his cards.

The money right now is on Abbas squandering the next year and a half, thus
enabling Binyamin Netanyahu to run in 2013 as the essentially unchallenged
leader of the national camp.

But, then again, if there is one thing certain in this neighborhood it it’s
uncertainty.

In the coming weeks we will see if indeed Mahmoud Abbas drops the ball.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il