The Commander of the Attack on Iran?
Two key events next week are the exchange of roles in the IAG and the Naqba
Day. However, the Barak-Ashkenazi war is burning bright as well. What of
Mofaz? The Iranian issue is relevant to his entrance into the government,
even if everyone says otherwise

Amir Rapaport 12/5/2012
http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=483&ArticleID=1241

Monday, that's when it'll happen: Major General Ido Nechushtan will stand in
the drill court at the heart of the Hatzor Military Base, and will transfer
command of the Israeli Air Force to Major General Amir Eshel.

A term is a term: Nechushtan is concluding precisely four years as IAF
Commander, and Eshel is stepping into his shoes. The ceremony will be
precise. Tears of excitement might emerge here and there. The orchestra will
play and a splendid flight will pass overhead. What will not be visible is
the burden of responsibility that will pass from Nechushtan’s shoulders to
those of his successor, as this is no ordinary period. The exchange will
take place with the gloom of a war with Iran hovering above.

Nechushtan

Let’s start with Ido Nechushtan: His term was characterized with fervent
preparations for a potential war with Iran. The IAF made no attempt to
conceal, and perhaps even tried to emphasize, the fact that a considerable
amount of the training it has conducted overseas in recent years were
intended to prepare it for the possibility of striking from a distance of
approximately 1,000 kilometers. Whether by chance, or not by chance (the
latter being the correct answer), this is exactly the range at which the
aircraft will be required to operate, should an air strike on Iran’s nuclear
facilities be decided

In order to operate at such a range, the air force must prepare a variety of
capabilities. It's not enough just to have aircraft that can reach the
necessary range. It can be assumed that the preparations for an Iranian
operation include the full envelope - air refueling capabilities,
communication (via satellite systems), electronic warfare, armament capable
of inflicting the maximum amount of damage and UAVs to accompany the
mission.

Nechushtan and the IAF are not alone in the force buildup. They are
partnered with other IDF branches and the best of minds in the defense
industries. Nevertheless, in the end, an operational failure (heaven forbid)
would fall directly upon the IAF Commander's bureau in the high-tech styled
building at the western corner of the Kiriya IDF base. Success, however,
will belong to many.

By the way, Nechushtan carried the full weight of the responsibility of
preparing the IAF without so much as blinking. His term was characterized
with the IDF halting the procurement of new fighter jets for now (the next
aircraft, the F-35, won’t arrive before 2017 at best). On the other hand,
considerable investment went into active defense systems such as the Iron
Dome and the David's Sling (the system for intercepting medium-ranged
rockets, which will be operational in another two years). The Iron Dome
project may not have necessarily overlapped with IAF priorities, but the
system’s swift absorption and its operational accomplishments are
astonishing by any historical criteria.

Amir Eshel, the next IAF Commander, had already been marked as being
intended for this role when he was a Colonel. There was never any genuine
doubt that he would eventually reach the position, despite having never shot
down an aircraft (what could he do - the last time someone in the IAF shot
down an enemy aircraft was in the 1980s; there have been no air battles
since then). Now the responsibility lies on his shoulders.

Nakba Day

The day after the exchange at the top of the Israeli Air Force will see the
IDF entering a defensive alert due to the “Nakba Day,” when the Palestinians
mark the date of Israel's founding, which is considered their national
disaster.

A reminder from last year: On this day, the Palestinian territories and the
borders were frantic as hundreds of Palestinians crossed the Syrian-Israel
border near Majdal Shams. This time, the IDF and Police forces will be ready
for the day with a much larger quantity of non-lethal weapons. On the other
hand, the Palestinians are reaching this day upset over the continuing
hunger strike of inmates in Israeli prisons. This matter should not be taken
lightly: the Shabak, Israel Police, and the Israeli Prison Authority are
racking their brains on how to bring about the end of the strike. The
prisoner's call to set the area on fire during Nakba Day might be heard by
attentive ears.

Barak-Ashkenazi

Another blistering front, even if it’s one that is not dominating the media
headlines: Ehud Barak and Gabi Ashkenazi are rattling their sabers in light
of the recent developments in the unending affair.

The message that Ehud Barak made public this week, in which he accused the
former IDF Chief of Staff Ashkenazi of accepting bribes, no less, is
astonishing. The police are being pressed by the Legal Advisor to the
Government and by the involved parties into a state where it will have no
choice but to renew the criminal investigation of the affair - even though
none of the senior investigators or commanders really want to deal with this
stench bomb.

Mofaz and Iran

And on to the truly significant matter: It is impossible to rule out the
possibility that Shaul Mofaz's governmental entrance is somehow connected to
the possibility of a war with Iran, even if he had a thousand other good
reasons to save himself from elections. In any case, whether or not this is
the reason for the surprising political action, there are far-reaching
implications to joining the political-security cabinet, with regards to the
Iranian subject.

Mofaz is more than just “another member” in the cabinet: as chairman of the
foreign affairs and defense committee in recent years, and as opposition
chairman in the past few weeks, he was a full partner to some of Israel's
top secrets pertaining to the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. The fact that
Mofaz is also the former Head of the IDF Planning Branch, Chief of Staff,
and Minister of Defense adds a noteworthy gravity to the cabinet, where
former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon serves as well. Within the cabinet,
a majority is assured for supporters of an attack, should Barak and
Netanyahu lead one (only two ministers, Benny Begin and Dan Meridor,
emphatically oppose an attack).

In the fight for public legitimacy for an attack, Mofaz joining has a
considerable, perhaps even decisive significance, in the front against those
who oppose it – the three former heads of the defense establishment: Chief
of Staff Ashkenazi, Head of Mossad, Meir Dagan. and Head of the Shabak,
Yuval Diskin.

In any case, the governmental expansion is perceived in Iran as an increased
threat of an attack by Israel. It may aid in convincing Iran to halt its
nuclear program in response to the West’s demands, and in the case of
halting Iran’s nuclear program, all the plans Amir Eshel is inheriting from
Ido Nechushtan will also be halted.