[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: I was one of the 602 adult Israelis interviewed
by phone in Hebrew for this poll. And it was frustrating. The questions
were designed to corner the respondent into providing the answers that the
designers of the poll apparently wanted to receive. A thousand studies
demonstrating that the "demographic problem" is bogus won't convince them.
So they have poll questions that force respondents to choice between
demographic disaster, the end of democracy and holding onto land. They are
convinced that retreating and creating a Palestinian state brings peace so
their questions have built into them that assumption.
And take note: when I recently asked Prof. Yaacov Shamir why this poll
doesn't follow up to ask Palestinians what their ultimate goal is and
Israelis what their ultimate goal is he responded with this:
"Dear Imra editor
As to our Joint palestian Israeli March poll why don't you report the
similar high level of threat of Palestinians? and the fact we will also not
cofirm this among Israelis? Half the truth is a full lie.
shame on you
I dare you to publish thim comment on your site
Prof. Yaacov Shamir"
Frankly speaking, I expected that after the exchange that the June poll
would ask the questions.
It doesn't.]
PSR - Survey Research Unit: Joint Palestinian Israeli Press release
02 July 2012
PRESS RELEASE
http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2012/p44ejoint.html
Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll
17 - 23 June 2012
Israelis are split and Palestinians oppose a new Israeli unilateral plan
designed to encourage settlers to move back to Israel in order to bolster
the two-state solution and the Israeli government’s ability to reach a peace
solution with the Palestinians. Neither Israelis nor Palestinians think that
the plan is likely to be implemented by the Netanyahu government
These are the results of the most recent Joint Israeli-Palestinian Poll
conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the
Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the
Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. The poll was
conducted in the backdrop of the recent round of violent clashes in Southern
Israel and the Gaza Strip. The poll was supported by the Ford Foundation
Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.
Recently a new plan was published in the Israeli media about an Israeli plan
for unilateral steps in the West Bank. The plan was designed to bolster
two-state solution and the government’s ability to reach a peace solution
with the Palestinians. These are the features of the plan:
The Israeli government will declare that it is willing to return to
negotiations anytime and that it has no claims of sovereignty on areas east
of the existing separation wall/fence
Israel will end all settlement construction east of the wall/fence and in
the Palestinian neighborhoods in East Jerusalem
At the same time, Israel will prepare to bring back settlers living outside
the separation wall/fence and will establish a fair compensation plan for
them.
IDF will remain in the Palestinian territories until a final status
agreement is reached
The proposed plan will take place either unilaterally or with Palestinian
cooperation.
· Among Israelis, 44% support the plan and 46% oppose it. Among
Palestinians 35% view it as good for Palestinians and 59% view it as bad for
Palestinians.
· 27% of the Israelis and 24% among Palestinians think that there
are high or medium chances that this plan will be implemented by the
Netanyahu government; 38% of the Israelis and 34% of Palestinians think the
chances are low, and 30% of the Israelis and 36% of the Palestinians think
that there are no chances.
The Palestinian sample size was 1200 adults interviewed face-to-face in the
West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 120 randomly selected locations
between June 21 and 23, 2012. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample
includes 602 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew, Arabic or
Russian between June 17 and 21, 2012. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll
was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman
Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of
Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil
Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
(PSR).
For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof.
Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 02-2964933 or email
pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Prof Yaacov Shamir at tel.
03-6419429 or email jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il.
MAIN FINDINGS
(A) Attitudes and expectations regarding the peace process:
Majorities among Israelis (71%) and Palestinians (68%) view the chances for
the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel in the
next five years as low or non-existent. A majority of Israelis (56%)
supports a two-state solution while 40% oppose it; Palestinians are split
49% to 49% on this issue. But majorities on both sides, 58% of Israelis and
55% of Palestinians, think that the two-state solution is bound to fail
because of the settlements. At the same time, majorities among Israelis
(60%) and among Palestinians (65%) oppose the one state solution in which
Arabs and Jews enjoy equality; 36% of Israelis and 31% of Palestinians
support this solution.
51% of the Palestinians support the Saudi plan and 45% oppose it, while 36%
of the Israelis support and 59% oppose it. The plan calls for Arab
recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its
occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment
of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all
territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem and
the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The refugee
problem will be resolved through negotiations in a just and agreed upon
manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return, all Arab states
will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace
treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations. These results
are similar to those obtained in our recent polls.
As we do periodically in our joint polls, we have asked Israelis and
Palestinians about their readiness for a mutual recognition of identity as
part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict
are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows
that 53% of the Israeli public supports such a mutual recognition and 43%
oppose it. Among Palestinians, 43% support and 55% oppose this step. In
March 2012, 55% of the Israelis supported and 39% opposed this mutual
recognition of identity; among Palestinians, the corresponding figures were
similar to the current poll.
(B) Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities:
51% of Israelis support the cooperation between the US and Israel in bombing
Iran’s nuclear facilities, 19% support a strike by Israel alone without the
cooperation of the US. 26% oppose any strike.
72 % of Israelis think that if Israel were to carry out a military strike
against Iran, a major regional war will erupt; 22% of Israelis do not think
so.
(C) Conflict management and threat perceptions:
Given the expansion of the Likud government with Kadima, 50% of the Israelis
think that armed attacks will not stop and the two sides will not return to
negotiations. 36% of the Israelis believe that negotiations will continue
but some armed attacks will continue as well. Only 6% of Israelis believe
negotiations will continue and armed confrontations will stop. Among the
Palestinians, 19% think that some armed attacks will take place and the two
sides will not return to negotiations, 18% think the two sides will soon
return to negotiations and 32% think the two sides will return to
negotiations but some armed attacks will take place. Finally, 21% think the
two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed
attacks.
73% of Israelis oppose an Israeli intervention in the events in Syria; 19%
support humanitarian assistance and granting political asylum to rebels, 2%
support supply of weapons and ammunition, and 4% support active intervention
of the Israeli army.
Among Israelis, 51% are worried and 48% are not worried that they or their
family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life, as they were in March
2012. Among Palestinians, 74% are worried that they or a member of their
family could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would
be confiscated or home demolished. In March 2012, perception of worry among
Palestinians was similar.
The level of threat on both sides regarding the aspirations of the other
side in the long run is very high. 62% of Palestinians think that Israel’s
goals are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan
River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 19% think
the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the
Palestinians. The modal category among Israelis is that the Palestinian
aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy
much of the Jewish population in Israel (41%); 15% think the goals of the
Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel. Only 17% of the
Palestinians think Israel’s aspirations in the long run are to withdraw from
part or all of the territories occupied in 1967; and 38% of Israelis think
the aspirations of the Palestinians are to regain some or all of the
territories conquered in 1967.
Recently a new unilateral plan was published in the Israeli media, designed
to bolster the two-state solution and the Israeli government’s ability to
reach a peace solution with the Palestinians. These are the features of the
plan:
- The Israeli government will declare that it is willing to return
to negotiations anytime and that it has no claims of sovereignty on areas
east of the existing separation wall/fence
- Israel will end all settlement construction east of the
wall/fence and in the Palestinian neighborhoods in East Jerusalem
- At the same time, Israel will prepare to bring back settlers
living outside the separation wall/fence and will establish a fair
compensation plan for them
- IDF will remain in the Palestinian territories until a final
status agreement is reached
- The proposed plan will take place either unilaterally or with
Palestinian cooperation.
Among Israelis 44% support the plan and 46% oppose it. Among Palestinians
35% viewed it as good for Palestinians and 59% viewed it as bad for
Palestinians. 27% of the Israelis and 24% among Palestinians think that
there are high or medium chances that this plan will be implemented by the
Netanyahu government; 38% of the Israelis and 34% of Palestinians think the
chances are low, and 30% of the Israelis and 36% of Palestinians think that
the chances are non-existent.
(D) Domestic affairs:
When asked to choose among four basic values: regarding the identity of
Israel: a Jewish state, Greater Israel, a democratic state (with equal
political rights to all), and peace (low probability for war), 38% of
Israeli Jews choose a Jewish state as the most desired value; 26% choose
peace, and Democracy is most highly ranked by 23%. Only 12% chose Greater
Israel as their most preferred value.
On the Palestinian side, when asked to chose among four vital goals for the
Palestinian people, 47% selected end of Israeli occupation in the areas
occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital, 30% selected obtaining right of
return of refugees, 15% selected building a pious or moral individual and a
religious society, and 8% selected the establishment of a democratic
political system.
As in other opinion polls carried out recently, the Likud leads by far the
other parties in terms of vote intention of Israelis if the elections for
the Knesset were to be held now. In March 2012, when we added to the list of
political parties a party of the social protest movement, it came out a
close second to the Likud with 14% to the Likud’s 16%. In the current poll,
when we add to the list of political parties a party of the social protest
movement, only 8% indicate they would vote for it. Since such a party has
not been actually proclaimed, this prognosis is premature; however these
results are noteworthy since they were obtained in the backdrop of the
recent violent clashes with the Palestinians in the South while security and
not social and economic issues were high on the political agenda.
On the Palestinian side, if presidential and parliamentary elections were to
take place today, Abbas receives 49% of the vote and Ismail Haniyeh 44% of
those participating in the presidential elections, while Fateh wins 40% and
Hamas 29% of the popular vote of those participating in the parliamentary
elections; all other parties combined receive 12% of the vote and 19% say
they have not decided yet to whom they will vote.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation
Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.
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