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Saturday, December 15, 2012
AWRAD Poll of Palestinians - 87.7%:10.3% Gaza conflict results prove armed struggle best way to achieve independence

The results of the recent Gaza conflict prove that armed struggle, as
adopted by Hamas, is the best means of achieving Palestinian independence
Strongly agree 55.6%
Agree 32.1%
Disagree 9.1%
Strongly disagree 1.2%
I don’t know 2.1%

Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: It is noteworthy that when asked if they approve
or disapprove of the performance of Gaza Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh, only
28% of West Bankers disapprove as compared to 40.7% of Gazans.

Results of an Opinion Poll
The Public Mood
UN Vote
Gaza Confrontation
Elections
Reconciliation
PA and Government
Evaluation of Leadership

Publication Date: 15 December 2012
Fieldwork: 1-2 December, 2012

Sample Size: 1200 Palestinians
Margin of error: +/-3%
http://www.awrad.org/files/server/20121512014830.docx

Arab World for Research & Development.Ramallah – Gaza, Palestine. Tele-fax:
00970-2-2950957/8
E-mail: awrad@awrad.org Website: www.awrad.org

Part One: The Public Mood
1- In general, would you say that things in Palestine are heading in the
right direction or the wrong direction?
Right direction 69.8%
Wrong direction 23.2%
Don’t know 7.0%

2- In general, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future?
Optimistic 75.9%
Pessimistic 21.0%
Don’t know 3.1%

Part Two: UN
3- In the wake of President Abbas' achieving non-member state status for
Palestine at the UN, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
The UN vote was a victory for the Palestinian cause
Strongly agree 51.6%
Agree 33.5%
Disagree 9.7%
Strongly disagree 4.0%
I don’t know 1.3%

The UN vote will be followed by tangible progress towards Palestinian
independence
Strongly agree 37.8%
Agree 41.3%
Disagree 13.8%
Strongly disagree 3.8%
I don’t know 3.3%

The UN vote is a victory for President Abbas’ peace-oriented approach to
Palestinian independence
Strongly agree 40.9%
Agree 37.7%
Disagree 15.1%
Strongly disagree 2.7%
I don’t know 3.7%

The UN is a better vehicle to achieve Palestinian independence than direct
negotiations with Israel
Strongly agree 37.2%
Agree 41.2%
Disagree 15.4%
Strongly disagree 2.8%
I don’t know 3.4%

The UN vote will have no impact on Palestinian affairs
Strongly agree 17.1%
Agree 26.0%
Disagree 45.8%
Strongly disagree 7.2%
I don’t know 3.9%

The UN vote will negatively affect the economy of the West Bank
Strongly agree 24.4%
Agree 33.8%
Disagree 28.8%
Strongly disagree 5.8%
I don’t know 7.1%

The UN vote will strengthen the Palestinian Authority
Strongly agree 42.7%
Agree 41.6%
Disagree 11.4%
Strongly disagree 2.2%
I don’t know 2.2%

The UN vote will make it harder to restart peace negotiations between the
Palestinian Authority and the Government of Israel
Strongly agree 23.3%
Agree 39.7%
Disagree 27.8%
Strongly disagree 4.3%
I don’t know 5.0%

The UN vote will lead to punitive actions such as expanded settlement
activity in the West Bank
Strongly agree 39.4%
Agree 38.5%
Disagree 15.1%
Strongly disagree 3.9%
I don’t know 3.1%

4- In general, do you believe that the Palestinian cause will be advanced
by the recent UN vote?
Advanced 67.9%
Set back 13.3%
Not changed 16.8%
I don’t know 2.1%

5- Are the principles of direct negotiations leading to a two-state
solution still a valid formula for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli
struggle?
Yes 48.4%
No 43.4%
I don’t know 8.3%

Part Three: Gaza Total

6- In the wake of the cease-fire agreement in Gaza between Palestinian
groups led by Hamas and the Government of Israel, do you agree or disagree
with the following statements?

The confrontation and the resulting truce represent a victory for
Palestinians
Strongly agree 57.5%
Agree 32.2%
Disagree 8.5%
Strongly disagree 1.3%
I don’t know 0.5%

The results of the Gaza conflict will lead to tangible progress towards
Palestinian independence
Strongly agree 44.0%
Agree 40.2%
Disagree 11.3%
Strongly disagree 1.3%
I don’t know 3.3%

The results of the recent Gaza conflict prove that armed struggle, as
adopted by Hamas, is the best means of achieving Palestinian independence
Strongly agree 55.6%
Agree 32.1%
Disagree 9.1%
Strongly disagree 1.2%
I don’t know 2.1%

The results of the Gaza conflict will lead to reconciliation and unity
Strongly agree 50.0%
Agree 36.9%
Disagree 9.4%
Strongly disagree 1.7%
I don’t know 2.0%

The Gaza conflict and resulting truce will lead to no real change in the
realities of Palestinians
Strongly agree 20.2%
Agree 29.6%
Disagree 39.2%
Strongly disagree 6.9%
I don’t know 4.1%

7- In general, do you believe that the Palestinian cause has been
advanced by recent events in Gaza?
Advanced 73.2%
Set back 8.0%
Not changed 17.1%
I don’t know 1.8%

8- In the wake of the UN initiative and the Gaza conflict, would you say
that your view of the following parties/leaders has improved or diminished?
The PA
Improved 46.1%
Somewhat improved 35.5%
Diminished 11.9%
Somewhat diminished 0.8%
Don’t know 5.7%

President Abbas
Improved 49.5%
Somewhat improved 33.2%
Diminished 12.3%
Somewhat diminished 1.9%
Don’t know 3.1%

Fatah
Improved 45.7%
Somewhat improved 35.3%
Diminished 14.0%
Somewhat diminished 0.8%
Don’t know 4.3%

Hamas
Improved 60.0%
Somewhat improved 28.5%
Diminished 7.1%
Somewhat diminished 1.3%
Don’t know 3.1%

Islamic Jihad
Improved 52.1%
Somewhat improved 32.6%
Diminished 7.5%
Somewhat diminished 1.3%
Don’t know 6.5%

Ismael Haniyeh
Improved 57.6%
Somewhat improved 27.9%
Diminished 7.7%
Somewhat diminished 2.1%
Don’t know 4.8%

KhaledMeshaal
Improved 54.5%
Somewhat improved 28.5%
Diminished 7.6%
Somewhat diminished 2.0%
Don’t know 7.3%

The Egyptian Government
Improved 59.8%
Somewhat improved 25.8%
Diminished 6.7%
Somewhat diminished 2.7%
Don’t know 5.2%

9- In your opinion, who benefited the most from the conflict in Gaza?
Palestinians in general 51.2%
Hamas 26.0%
The residents of Gaza 10.6%
Government of Egypt 1.7%
Government of Israel 1.6%
Fatah and the PA 1.2%
No one benefited from the conflict 5.9%
I don’t know 1.9%

10- In your opinion, who lost the most from the conflict in Gaza?
Palestinians in general 4.3%
Hamas 0.8%
The residents of Gaza 11.5%
Government of Egypt 0.3%
Government of Israel 75.8%
Fatah and the PA 2.1%
Everyone lost 1.8%
I don’t know 3.3%

11- In the wake of recent events, which approach do you Prefer to advance
Palestinian independence?
The approach supported by Fatah and President Abbas 32.8%
The approach supported by Hamas and other militant groups 40.1%
None 14.0%
I don’t know 13.2%

12- Do you support or oppose the return to negotiations at this time?
Support 45.2%
Oppose 49.3%
I don’t know 5.6%

13- Do you support the principle of a two-state solution with a
Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace with Israel?
Support 46.8%
Oppose 49.5%
I don’t know 3.7%

14- Which country do you believe is the most credible broker in mediating
a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?
(Gazans – 73.3% said Egypt as compared to 49.9% of West Bankers)
Turkey 21.5%
Egypt 58.7%
Saudi Arabia 2.8%
Qatar 2.1%
Iran 5.4%
United States 2.0%
France 1.9%
Russia 2.3%
Other 3.3%

Part Four: Elections Total
15- Did you follow the news about the recent local elections in the West
Bank?
Yes 40.6%
To some extent 25.9%
No 33.4%

16- In general, how do you view the conduct of these elections?
Positively 30.9%
Neutral 30.0%
Negatively 12.9%
I don’t now 26.2%

17- Do you believe that similar local elections should be carried out in
Gaza?
Yes 74.4%
No 17.1%
I don’t know 8.5%

18- Do you support the immediate holding of legislative elections in both
the West Bank and Gaza?
Yes 78.3%
To some extent 15.2%
No 6.5%

19- Do you support the immediate holding of presidential elections in
both the West Bank and Gaza?
Yes 75.7%
To some extent 18.1%
No 6.3%

20- If elections took place today and the following lists ran, which one
would you vote for?
DFLP 0.9%
HizbTahrir 0.8%
Islamic Jihad 1.7%
PFLP 2.8%
Palestinian Struggle Front 0.8%
Al Mubadara 1.1%
Hamas 22.7%
Fatah 37.0%
Fida 0.0%
PPP 0.4%
Other 2.0%
I didn’t decide yet 17.9%
I will not vote 11.9%

21- If the following leaders ran for president, for whom would you most
likely vote?
Mahmoud Abbas 25.2%
Salam Fayyad 2.0%
Ahmad Saadat 3.1%
Mohammed Dahlan 2.6%
Ramadan Shalah 1.0%
Marwan Barghouthi 12.4%
Mustafa Barghouthi 3.6%
Nasser Al Deen Al Shaer 0.8%
Mahmoud Al Zahhar 0.8%
Ismael Haniyeh 17.5%
Mahmoud Aloul 0.4%
KhaledMeshaal 5.9%
I don’t know/ Not sure 10.9%
I will not vote 13.9%

Part Five: Reconciliation Total
22- Are you optimistic or pessimistic about achieving reconciliation
between Fatah and Hamas?
Optimistic 82.6%
Pessimistic 15.0%
I don’t know 2.4%

23- Do you believe that Fatah is serious about ending the division?
Yes 71.7%
No 20.4%
I don’t know 7.9%

24- Do you believe that Hamas is serious about ending the division?
Yes 68.5%
No 23.4%
I don’t know 8.1%

25- To end the present impasse between Fatah and Hamas, which one of the
following is the best approach in your opinion?
Immediate call for legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank
and Gaza 26.8%
Continue to pursue reconciliation talks 21.5%
Popular pressure on both Fatah and Hamas 40.4%
Nothing will work to resolve this issue 8.5%
Don’t know 2.8%

Part Six: The PA and Government

26- Within the medium term, do you believe that the PA will be able to
survive?
Will definitely survive 44.5%
Possible that it will survive 25.5%
Possible that it will collapse 13.6%
Will definitely collapse 5.7%
I don’t know 10.7%

27- In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the government led
by Salam Fayyad
Positive 24.4%
Average 40.4%
Negative 30.3%
I don’t know 5.0%

28- In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the government led
by Ismael Haniyeh
Positive 39.3%
Average 36.4%
Negative 15.7%
I don’t know 8.6%

29- If you had a choice between the two governments, the Fayyad-led and
the Haniyeh-led, which would you chose to govern in your region?
The Haniyeh – led government 34.3%
The Fayyad – led government 25.3%
None of the two 33.6%
Don’t know 6.8%

30- If a unity government was agreed upon, which one of the following
leaders would you prefer to see as a Prime Minister?
Ismael Haniyeh (West Bank 36.1%, Gaza 29.1%) 33.5%
Salam Fayyad (West Bank 17.5% Gaza 22.4%) 19.4%
MunibMasri 7.5%
Mustafa Barghouthi 19.2%
Ziad Abu Amer 0.6%
Hanan Ashrawi 3.8%
Jamal al Khudari 1.9%
Other 14.2%

31- Would you say that you approve or disapprove of the overall
performance of the following leaders?

Mahmoud Abbas
Approve 63.6%
Disapprove 31.6%
I don’t know 4.8%

Salam Fayyad Approve 43.8%
Disapprove 50.1%
I don’t know 6.1%

Ismael Haniyeh Approve 60.3%
Disapprove(West Bank 28.7% Gaza 40.7%) 33.2%
I don’t know 6.5%

Khaled Meshaal Approve 57.5%
Disapprove 34.0%
I don’t know 8.5%

Sample Distribution
District
Jenin 6.7%
Tulkarm 5.0%
Qalqilya 1.7%
Nablus 8.3%
Salfit 1.6%
Tubas 1.6%
Ramallah &Albireh 8.3%
Jerusalem 10.0%
Jericho 1.8%
Bethlehem 4.8%
Hebron 12.8%
Jabalya 7.2%
Gaza 14.6%
DeirAlbalah 5.3%
Khanyounis 5.3%
Rafah 5.3%

Residence
City 52.2%
Village 23.8%
Camp 24.0%

Work Sector
Government 29.7%
Private 53.6%
NGOs 6.6%
Other 10.2%

Income
Above average 17.0%
Average 60.2%
Below average 22.8%

Gender
Male 51.3%
Female 48.8%

Age
18-30 43.6%
31-40 25.1%
41+ 31.3%

Marital Status
Single 26.5%
Married 69.8%
Other 3.7%

Refugee status
Refugee 48.8%
Non-refugee 51.2%

Educational level
Up to 9 years 22.6%
Secondary (10-12) 40.7%
More than 12 years 36.7%

Occupation
Laborer 13.3%
Employee 19.7%
Farmer
Merchant 4.7%
Professional 1.1%
Craftsman 2.8%
Student
Housewife 33.6%
Does not work 10.9%
Retired 1.2%
Do you use the internet?
Yes 50.5
No 49.5

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