Al-Qaeda’s Odyssey to the Global Jihad
Memorandum No. 134, Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, March
2014
Yoram Schweitzer, Aviv Oreg .
http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=6866

SUMMARY: 2013 marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the founding of
al-Qaeda and twelve years since the September 11, 2001 terror attacks in the
United States. Despite the global counterterror campaign conducted against
al-Qaeda, the organization and its affiliates are still responsible for the
vast majority of terror attacks in the world, which kill and wound thousands
of people every year. In addition to their involvement in terrorist attacks,
al-Qaeda and its affiliates exert much influence in the international
system, far more than their numbers and military power suggest. This
memorandum explains how one terrorist organization, which at the height of
its activity numbered a few hundred operatives, established a worldwide,
highly influential phenomenon called the “global jihad movement” and
succeeded, more than any other terrorist organization in modern history, in
harming, harassing, and exhausting a hegemonic superpower and its allies and
entangling them in bloody and costly military campaigns around the world.

The terrorist attack perpetrated by al-Qaeda against the United States in
2001 turned global terrorism into one of the major issues on the agendas of
decision makers all over the world and became a benchmark in the relations
between the United States and other nations, in accordance with their
participation in the war on terrorism. To be sure, modern international
terrorism became a significant player in global politics and international
relations as early as the late 1960s and remained so throughout the 1970s
and 1980s with the appearance of nationalist, separatist, and ideological
left wing terrorist organizations influenced by Marxist-Leninist worldviews
that carried out acts of terrorism worldwide. Nonetheless, it is evident
that the 9/11 attacks profoundly increased awareness of the threat terrorism
poses to the international system and the national security of many
countries. The unique status of terrorism as a major national and
multinational security issue was a consequence of the massive destruction
and loss of life caused by the bold and fearless attack of a handful of
suicide bombers in the heart of US political, economic, and military nerve
centers, an event unprecedented in any nation. Video footage of the collapse
of the World Trade Center played throughout the world and was broadcast over
and over again by virtually every media outlet – in the news, in
documentaries, and in fictional films devoted to the attack and the
organization that carried it out. This attention was accompanied by repeated
threats by al-Qaeda and its affiliates that the 9/11 scenario would be
played out again and again until all of the organization’s demands were
fully met. Thus, al-Qaeda succeeded in creating shockwaves that went far
beyond physical and economic ruin and damaged morale, by presenting
international terrorism as having unparalleled demonic powers that threaten
to flood the world with rivers of blood.

Al-Qaeda activities dragged the United States and its allies into a number
of extended military campaigns in the Middle East and Afghanistan. These
campaigns demanded massive financial resources that taxed the economies of
all the countries involved and caused thousands of deaths among military
personnel and hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties, both directly
during military campaigns and indirectly because of rampant terrorism in the
countries where the confrontations took place. Yet while during the years
immediately after 9/11 the war on terrorism was the common denominator
uniting all nations engaged in the campaign, recent years have seen a
reversal of this trend. More specifically, the nations that were forced to
bear the brunt of terrorism and the war on terror have come under harsh
criticism, including the Western countries whose armed forces were involved
in military activities and incurred high casualty rates. The fear of
frequent attacks that resulted from the events of September 11, 2001 has
abated over the years, and to a great extent terrorism is once again viewed
as one of many challenges on the national security agenda. Al-Qaeda has been
driven into defensive warfare as attacks on it have taken the lives of most
of its leaders, the majority of whom have been eliminated or apprehended,
including Osama Bin Laden. Since 2005 and despite its ongoing efforts,
al-Qaeda failed to carry out any massive attack on Western soil. The center
of gravity of jihadi terrorist activity has shifted away from al-Qaeda on to
affiliate groups and inspired individuals that are active primarily in
distant locations, though there are still sporadic attempts to carry out
attacks in the West as well. Al-Qaeda, now headed by Ayman al-Zawahiri,
holds a leadership position, playing primarily a mentoring and guiding role
as it directs, inspires, and assists the terrorist activity of others.

The global campaign against terrorism lasted many years and was extremely
costly in terms of casualties and money, amounting to several hundred
billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs. In addition, the West’s
military intervention opened an internal Pandora’s Box within states where
the war on terrorism was conducted, reigniting past local, internal
struggles of an ethnic, tribal, or religious nature. Thus the United States
and its allies found themselves chasing groups, organizations, networks, and
even individual terrorists who succeeded in commanding tremendous resources
in terms of leaders’ attention and time, money, and manpower –
disproportionate to their true threat potential.

Al-Qaeda’s success in upsetting the West’s lifestyle and mentality,
compelling many countries to devise defensive measures far beyond the
tremendous scope of damage it inflicted, is manifested in several ways.
First, al-Qaeda challenged the status of the West, led by the US, and shook
the confidence of the world’s sole superpower by daring to attack it
directly on its sovereign soil, in a way that was unprecedented in its
audacity and damage. Second, al-Qaeda actions and threats challenged the
routine in the public sphere and local and international travel, greatly
complicating day-to-day life in many countries. Third, al-Qaeda has
positioned itself as an international emblem and its legendary leader, Osama
Bin Laden, became one of the world’s archetypal terror-inducing figures on
the one hand, and a widely admired symbol of resistance to the West for many
Muslim youths on the other. Fourth, al-Qaeda’s ideas have captivated many
Muslims around the world, even if their relative number compared to the
world’s Muslim population is miniscule. Fifth, al-Qaeda has generated and
motivated a new worldwide movement known as the "global jihad." Finally, the
organization has managed to survive despite the intensive international war
waged against it for more than a decade, as the vast efforts and resources
invested to defeat it by many nations, chiefly the United States, remain
unsuccessful to date.

Despite its substantial success, al-Qaeda’s attempts to oust the military
and end the involvement in Middle East affairs by Western countries, mainly
the United States, has not borne fruit. On the contrary, the activity of the
organization and its affiliates has actually resulted in increasing
deployment of the United States and its allies in Muslim countries
throughout the world. Many countries supported the United States’
retaliation after the 9/11 attack and joined the campaign against al-Qaeda
and its affiliates out of concern that the threat of terrorism to their own
nations and citizens had become a transnational strategic problem that
demanded confrontation and required significant resources in order to
completely eradicate it. In addition, al-Qaeda’s stated desire to implement
sharia (Islamic law) according to the model of the prophet Muhammad and the
Salafists, as the only rule of the land, has not yet been realized. In fact,
al-Qaeda was the reason that the Taliban – the first and only group in the
modern era that has actually implemented sharia as state law, the type of
rule al-Qaeda preaches – was ousted from the government in Afghanistan as a
consequence of the US-led Western offensive that followed the 9/11 attacks.

Nonetheless, the weakening of the international terrorist threat posed by
al-Qaeda in recent years should not be regarded as "mission accomplished,"
nor is the effort to prevent its return complete. In fact, understanding the
near-term trends and developments of al-Qaeda, its affiliates, and inspired
elements, and implementing the countermeasures necessary to contain and stop
them can, to a large extent, determine al-Qaeda’s ability to survive,
direct, fuel, and conduct the campaign of global jihad. The recruitment of a
new generation of volunteers, some from Western countries, to the ranks of
global jihad in peripheral warfare zones such as Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Iraq, Somalia, Mali, and Yemen, and in the last two years, Syria, will
probably be reflected in attempts to shift radical Islamic international
terrorism into high gear. Therefore Western nations, primarily the United
States, must continue their intensive counterterrorist activity at home and
abroad in order to foil attempts to carry out attacks by networks, cells, or
lone wolves who have adopted the global jihad worldview. The effectiveness
of the West’s concerted counterterrorist activity, alongside economic,
intelligence, military, and security assistance to peripheral nations
fighting al-Qaeda and its affiliates tin their own countries, accompanied by
a comprehensive, coordinated campaign to undermine the validity of the
radical Salafist jihadi ideology, will largely determine whether
international terrorism as championed by global jihadists will rear its ugly
head again or will resume the relatively low profile it had until the 9/11
attacks in the United States.