Excerpts: Iran's regional quagmire.Qatar as Gaza mediator? Egypt invited to =

Obama African Summit list.Turkey Scholars conference re 'Caliphate' July 18=
, =

2014

+++SOURCE: Al Arabiya 18 July =9214:=94Iran=92s fear of ISIS drowns in regi=
onal =

quagmire=94, by Dr. Majid Rafizadeh*
SUBJECT: Iran=92s regional quagmire

Iran is encountering an unprecedented, inextricable and irresolvable =

challenge. Tehran is in a quagmire, stuck between choosing to spend its =

economic and military resources on either the Shiite-led government of Iraq =

or Syria.

As the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will soon potentially be on =

Iran=92s border, since Iran is bordered with a civil war-inflicted state th=
e =

fragmented and fractured government in Iraq. With Tehran still spending its =

economic and military resources to keep the government of Bashar al-Assad =

and Nouri al-Maliki in power, these developments are undoubtedly causing =

tremendous apprehension for the Iranian government and will weaken Iran=92s =

long term regional stance.

Iran=92s involvement in Iraq and Syria has become akin to U.S. involvement =
in =

Afghanistan and Iraq

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

A close analogy can be made here between Iran and the United States: Iran=
=92s =

involvement in Iraq and Syria has become akin to U.S. involvement in =

Afghanistan and Iraq where the U.S. government spent trillions of dollars, =

ultimately contributing to its declining power in the region, its rising =

economic debt, and popular discontent against U.S. imperialism and =

interventions.

Being stuck between ISIS and Syria has definitely taken the Iranian =

government by surprise. The emerging geopolitical issues were not an issue =

the Islamic Republic was expecting to deal with so abruptly.

Iran, frightened of ISIS
The porous border between the Islamic Republic and Iraq is approximately =

1,500 kilometers long and is not totally controlled by Iraqi forces.

According to the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and the Pentagon, a =

recent classified military assessment conducted by U.S. military assessment =

teams, revealed that many factions of Iraq=92s security forces are infiltra=
ted =

by extremist groups as well as Shiite figures supported by the Islamic =

Republic.

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria poses a great challenge to the Islamic =

Republic not only geopolitically and strategically, but also ideologically. =

Ideologically speaking, ISIS is opposed to the dominance of Shiite theology =

and Shiite-led governments, including those of Iraq and Iran.

For several years, the Islamic Republic did not view supporting the =

government of Bashar al-Assad as a huge undertaking. Iranian leaders, =

including the former head of Iran=92s National Security Council, Saeed Jali=
li, =

frequently pointed out that the Iranian government would not allow the axis =

of resistance to be broken by any party. Accordingly, Syria is an =93integr=
al =

part=94 of this axis.

Iran has been assisting the Assad government financially, sending Iran=92s =

Revolutionary Guards Corps and Quds forces to fight the Sunni rebel groups =

and to train the Syrian Armed Forces, lending Syria billions of dollars of =

credits and supplying oil. For Iranian leaders, keeping Assad in power =

justified geopolitically spending resources and providing manpower to Syria=
. =

The Islamic Republic has enough resources to handle Syria=97 and this is no=
t a =

significant undertaking or responsibility for Iranian leaders=97 although I=
ran=92s =

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei showed his frustration several times =

in recent speeches with Assad=92s government not being capable of completel=
y =

cracking down on rebel groups.

When it comes to Iraq, the Islamic Republic has sent several attack planes, =

Su-25 aircrafts, to the Shiite-led government of Maliki in order to assist =

the government=92s fight against Sunni extremist rebel and insurgent groups=
. =

Iranian leaders have established a special control center at Al-Rashid =

airfield in Baghdad along with deploying a fleet of Ababil drones to an =

airfield near Baghdad. In addition, in order to intercept any electronic =

communications between ISIS fighters and commanders, the Islamic Republic =

has set up an intelligence unit at the same airfield. Reportedly, several =

thousands of Iran=92s Revolutionary Guard Corps and Quds Forces have been s=
ent =

to Iraq to assist Maliki=92s forces. According to Radio Free Europe, the =

Iranian government later acknowledged that it had sent Su-25 aircrafts this =

month, to assist the Shiite Maliki government.

Although Iranian leaders deny that they have sent troops to Iraq to fight =

with extremists and insurgent groups, several of the troops from the elite =

branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps who operate overseas, including =

Alireza Moshajeri or the pilot Colonel Shoja'at Alamdari Mourjani, were =

reportedly killed fighting extremist groups in Iraq.

Iraq is not only geopolitically, strategically and economically crucial for =

the Islamic Republic, but Iraq=92s Shiite holy sites are tremendous assets =
for =

the Iranian leaders=92 Shiite constituents, ideological propaganda, and the=
ir =

hold on power.

Iran=92s resources are being weathered and eroded
But the issue that Iranian leaders were not expecting was that soon they =

would have to take on another huge undertaking, facing the ISIS near its =

border, and be obliged to ensure Shiite dominance of Iraq=92s political sys=
tem =

with more efforts put in place.

How long is the Islamic Republic willing to spend its resources in Iraq and =

Syria? The Iraq and Syria crises do not appear to be ending anytime soon. =

While Iranian leaders seem to be determined to support the Shiite-led =

government of Maliki and the Alawite-led sate of Assad, these two countries =

are weathering and eroding Iran=92s resources.

Although the Islamic Republic is rich in resources, Iran cannot (for a long =

time) afford and take on such a huge undertaking, spending unlimited amount=
s =

of economic and military resources to keep its strategic and geopolitical =

allies in power.

In other words, a continued erosion of economic and military resources will =

undoubtedly weaken Iran=92s power in the region in the long term if the cri=
ses =

in Iraq and Syria persist.

________________________

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-American political scientist and scholar at =

Harvard University, is president of the International American Council and =

he serves on the board of Harvard International Review at Harvard =

University. Rafizadeh served as a senior fellow at Nonviolence Internationa=
l =

Organization based in Washington DC. He is also a member of the Gulf projec=
t =

at Columbia University and Harvard scholar. He is originally from the =

Islamic Republic of Iran and Syria. He has been a recipient of several =

scholarships and fellowship including from Oxford University, Annenberg =

University, University of California Santa Barbara, and Fulbright Teaching =

program. He served as ambassador for the National Iranian-American Council =

based in Washington DC, conducted research at Woodrow Wilson International =

Center for Scholars, and taught at University of California Santa Barbara =

through Fulbright Teaching Scholarship. He can be reached at =

rafizadeh@fas.harvard.edu.

+++SOURCE: Al Arabiya News 18 July =9214:=94Qatar seeks role as Gaza mediat=
or, =

Israel wary=94,Reuters
SUBJECT: Qatar as Gaza mediator ?
QUOTE: =93But while U.S. officials say Washington has asked Qatar to try to =

influence Hamas, whose leader lives in Doha, they emphasize that those link=
s =

mean Israel is unlikely to accept it as a mediator.=94
[IMRA: Secretary of State Kerry demonstrated that he is profoundly clueles=
s =

when he tried to introduce Turkey (a country ruled by a Moslem Brotherhood =

fellow traveler who doesn't recognize the elected president of Egypt) and =

Qatar to join Egypt as mediators.]

FULL TEXT:With Egyptian efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas =

making little headway after 10 days of warfare, Qatari officials say it is =

time for the Gulf state to step in, citing its close links to the =

Palestinian group.

But while U.S. officials say Washington has asked Qatar to try to influence =

Hamas, whose leader lives in Doha, they emphasize that those links mean =

Israel is unlikely to accept it as a mediator.

Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, has rejected Egyptian efforts to end =

fighting that has killed more than 200 Palestinians, mostly civilians, =

saying any deal must include an end to a blockade of the coastal area and a =

recommitment to a ceasefire reached in an eight-day war there in 2012.

Palestinian rocket fire and Israeli air strikes largely stopped during a =

five-hour humanitarian ceasefire on Thursday[17 July], but fighting then =

resumed and an Egyptian-proposed permanent truce remained elusive, despite =

reports of senior Israeli negotiators approving such a deal in Cairo.

Hamas officials say Cairo=92s proposal was drafted without communicating wi=
th =

Hamas leaders, whom Egypt has shunned as being linked with the Muslim =

Brotherhood which it calls a =93terrorist group.=94

The United States and Israel also consider Hamas to be a terrorist =

organization, making direct contacts impossible.

=93Qatar is the only country that reached out to us and I wouldn=92t say it=
=92s =

mediation =96 it=92s still too early, they have just opened a line of =

communication,=94 said Ezzat al-Rishq, a Hamas official in Doha.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry contacted the Egyptian and Qatari foreig=
n =

ministers again on Thursday, state department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told =

reporters.

Western diplomatic sources in the Gulf said the United States had approache=
d =

Qatar after it realized that the Cairo deal was bound to fail with Hamas =

being kept out of the picture.

=93Hamas are the ones behind the attacks: If you don=92t include them any d=
eal =

will fall apart fast, Qatar is best placed to mediate with Hamas,=94 said a =

Western diplomat in Doha.

Qatar, a tiny but wealthy Gulf Arab state which has emerged as a leading =

supporter of Islamist groups after Arab Spring protests that began in 2011, =

sees the standoff as a chance to play a key role in trying to broker a =

ceasefire.

=93We have good relations with Hamas and the West and a solid track record =
of =

being international mediators,=94 a source close to the government said, =

declining to be named.

It hosts a large number of exiled Islamists from across the Middle East, =

including Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, who enjoys ample air time on the =

Doha-funded Al Jazeera network.

During numerous gatherings in Doha, Meshaal is always keen to express his =

gratitude and prayers to Qatar's leaders for their support of the =

Palestinian cause.

Step too far
The government source told Reuters Qatar had noted the demands of Hamas and =

was now waiting for the United States to present Israel=92s conditions befo=
re =

kicking off a mediation.

=93Both sides will present the proposals they have and that will be the bes=
t =

way to reach an effective ceasefire,=94 the source said, declining to give =
a =

timeline for talks.

But Israeli and U.S. officials both poured cold water on the idea of direct =

Qatari mediation.

=93The Qatari initiative is not on the table,=94 a senior Israeli official =
said, =

speaking on condition of anonymity.

=93Israel wants to see an arrangement that Abu Mazen (Palestinian President =

Mahmoud Abbas) is involved in.=94

Qatar also has strong ties with Abbas and last week, its emir reiterated to =

him Qatar=92s support of the Palestinian people and their =93just cause,=94=
Qatar=92s =

state news agency (QNA) said.

A Qatari official said Doha has donated $500 million in humanitarian aid to =

Palestinians since the recent crisis began.

On Tuesday, Sheikh Tamim met Turkish President Abdullah Gul in Ankara to =

coordinate on working with Hamas for a ceasefire, sources close to the =

government said.

U.S. officials have said the foreign minister of Qatar, along with Egyptian =

and UAE counterparts, was among those Secretary of State Kerry has reached =

out to in recent days urging them to use their influence with Hamas.

But mediation by Qatar would be a step too far, one said.

=93Hamas continues to leverage political and financial contacts in Qatar, =

which hosts several Hamas leaders, which makes it unlikely that Israel woul=
d =

agree to Qatar as a peace broker,=94 said the U.S. official, who is based i=
n =

Washington.

=93The Israelis probably perceive Qatar would strongly favor Hamas in any =

deal.=94

+++SOURCE: U.S. ANNOUNCEMENT 15 July =9214:=94Egypt added to Obama Africa S=
ummit =

list=94

SUBJECT: Egypt invited to Obama African Summit list

QUOTE:=94The U.S invitation was extended when Egypt was allowed back into t=
he =

African Union.=94

FULL TEXT :Egypt has been invited by the United States to attend next month=
s =

African leaders summit in Washington, a White House spokesman said on =

Monday[14 July], reversing a decision not to let Egypt participate.

Egypt was suspended from the African Union after last years military =

overthrow of Egypt=92s Muslim Brotherhood-led government.

The U.S. invitation was extended after Egypt was allowed back into the =

African Union.

"When the invitations were first issued, both Egypt and Guinea Bissau were =

suspended from the AU. Upon their readmission to the AU, we made the =

decision to invite them," said Ned Price, a spokesman for the White House =

National Security Council.

A source familiar with Egypt=92s position said the Egyptians would send a =

high-level delegation to the summit.

President Barack Obama will host the U.S. summit on Aug. 4-6.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the summit will focus on expanding =

trade and economic ties between the United States and African nations.

"There is plenty of common ground to be seized," he told reporters.

+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 15 July =9214:=94Turkey to Host Conference fo=
r =

Muslim Scholars to Reject =91Caliphate=92 =93
SUBJECT: Turkey scholars conference re =91Caliphate=92
QUOTE:=94=85conference for Muslim scholars . . .to reject extremism and vio=
lence =

and to safeguard Islam against the so-called =91caliphate=92 . . .=94
Turkey is seeking to host a conference for Muslim scholars in Istanbul =

during the upcoming days to reject extremism and violence and to safeguard =

Islam against the so-called "caliphate" that was declared by Sunni militant=
s =

in Iraq and Syria.

A Turkish envoy held talks with several Muslim scholars and clerics in =

Beirut to invite them to attend a conference in Istanbul between July 17 an=
d =

19, As Safir newspaper reported on Tuesday[15 July].

The daily said that the invitations come on behalf of the President of =

Turkish Religious Affairs, Mohammed Kormaz, in an attempt to bring together =

Muslim scholars at a conference under the title =93World Islamic Scholars =

Peace, Moderation and Common Sense Initiative.=94

Several invitations have been sent to Muslim scholars in Iraq, Syria, Saudi =

Arabia, Egypt and other countries, the newspaper said.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and =

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are expected to attend the conference.

In June, ruthless jihadists spearheading a Sunni militant offensive in Iraq =

have declared an "Islamic caliphate" and ordered Muslims worldwide to pledg=
e =

allegiance to their chief, in a spectacular bid to extend their authority.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) renamed itself simply the =

Islamic State (IS) and declared its shadowy frontman the leader of the =

world's Muslims, in a clear challenge to al-Qaida for control of the global =

jihadist movement.

IS announced that it was establishing a "caliphate" -- an Islamic form of =

government last seen under the Ottoman Empire -- extending now from Aleppo =

in northern Syria to Diyala province in eastern Iraq, the regions where it =

has fought against the regimes in power.

In an audio recording posted online, the group declared its chief Abu Bakr =

al-Baghdadi "the caliph" and "leader for Muslims everywhere". Henceforth, =

the group said, he is to be known as "caliph Ibrahim" -- a reference to his =

real name.

H.K.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA =

________________________________________
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