Observation: Would mega attack facilitated by 5 day temporary halt end
political careers in Israel?
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 24 July 2014

Here is the proposal being discussed:

In the spirit of "quiet for quiet", Israel allows Hamas and the other
terrorist organizations as many as five days to prepare, without any Israeli
interference, for a mega attack against Israel.

The question is not if such preparations take place.

Only someone who has been in a coma for the last several weeks would think
otherwise.

And none of the decision makers has been in a coma.

The question therefore is not if a mega attack will be prepared during the
temporary halt but instead if it is carried out.

There are two schools of thought:

#1. Hamas won't want to risk the gains it negotiates during that temporary
halt. It presents its public with the military achievements it made before
the temporary halt along with the results of the talks as it's "victory
finish" and the temporary halt seamlessly becomes an ongoing ceasefire.

#2. Hamas is convinced that whatever gains it negotiates during the
temporary halt will be preserved if it carries out a mega attack in the
"seam" between the temporary halt and the negotiated ceasefire. Israel will
take its punishment as the talking heads explain that the mega attack was an
unavoidable event required by Hamas and that the mega attack should not
undermine implementation of the negotiated ceasefire.

For the Israeli decision makers, of course, there is another consideration:
what will happen to their political careers if there is indeed a mega attack
thanks to the temporary halt? Will the Israeli public accept the arguments
of the talking heads or will the resentment that the decision makers
knowingly facilitated the mega attack be a permanent stain on their
reputations that irreparably dooms their political futures?

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

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