Press Release
Media Relations University of Haifa
??????????????????????????????September 18, 2014

The ensuing threat of new waves of refugees

Israel needs to prepare for the waves of Arab immigrants into its territory
that could pose a threat on its existence

According to a new article by Prof. Arnon Soffer and Dr. Anton Berkovsky
from the University of Haifa, which analyzes the possible consequences of
waves of immigrants resulting from demographic chaos in the Middle East,
Jordan is the next country that could be significantly affected, with the
threat of ISIS possibly further undermining the stability of the Hashemite
Kingdom*

“In a region of collapsing countries that are in states of internal and
external war, Israel must prepare for waves of immigrants from Arab
countries to its territory, which may endanger its existence,” maintain
Prof. Arnon Soffer, who holds the Reuven Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy,
University of Haifa, and Dr. Anton Berkovsky, in a new article by the Chair.
According to Prof. Soffer and Dr. Berkovsky, waves of immigrants already
constitute a real danger to the future of Jordan, and the worst-case
scenario would be if ISIS gained control of territories in Jordan and added
them to its caphilate.

According to the data presented in the article, 2013 showed a global record
of immigrants in the world of more than 232 million people, who constitute
about 3.2 percent of the world’s population. However, according to Prof.
Soffer, the picture in the Middle East is particularly clear: “We have a
globally unique demographic event occurring. The population of the region
doubled within 30 years (1950-1980), and doubled itself again within the 30
years following that. That is one of the main reasons why the Middle East
has entered a demographic, economic and political spiral, resulting in
disorder and instability.” Prof. Soffer added that climate changes that have
led to severe water shortages in a number of areas such as North East Syria
near the border with Turkey and Iraq, or Daraa in South Syria, should also
be taken into account.

Soffer argues that the events of the Arab Spring, especially the civil war
in Syria and recurring crises in Iraq, have already created waves of
refugees that are changing the demographic population map of the region
beyond recognition. According to estimates, 3-4 million people became
refugees outside of Syria and another 8 million have become refugees in
their own homeland as a result of the civil war in Syria. Wars between the
different factions in Iraq have resulted in 750 thousand refugees who have
already left Iraq - mostly to Jordan - and in another 3 million refugees
within Iraq. These refugees enter neighboring countries and cause changes
that threaten stability there too — and so on and so forth.

The most troubling possibility is Jordan. As a result of the situation in
Iraq and Syria, a million to a million and a half new refugees have already
joined the 6.5 million citizens of the kingdom. The Palestinian population
in Jordan has decreased from 70 percent to about 60 percent, while the
percentage of Syrian refugees in Jordan is estimated to be between 8 and 15
percent. “The Jordan of 2014 presents a new ethnic, national mosaic that has
completely changed the previous balance of power in the kingdom. We need to
keep in mind that some of the refugees are infiltrators from extremist
groups such as ISIS. Others are in such a bad state that it makes it easier
for radical groups like those to recruit them,” noted Prof. Soffer. He
describes three possibilities: the optimistic alternative - massive Western
aid that helps to maintain Jordan’s stability; the second - the collapse of
the kingdom and the outbreak of civil war, similar to the situation in
Syria - in this second case, Prof. Soffer foresees the Palestinians trying
to take over the kingdom to establish a Palestinian state; the third, most
dangerous option is if ISIS takes over large parts of Jordan, thereby
joining the kingdom to their extremist Sunni caliphate. The last two
possibilities will bring hundreds of thousands of additional refugees into
the circle of refugees in the Middle East.

According to Prof. Soffer, if these forecasts materialize and instability
grows, there will be a real danger to Israel - not only from the existence
of unstable, extreme and hostile regimes close to its borders, but also
because a significant portion of the hundreds of thousands of refugees may
try to enter Israel.

The authors note that according to data from 2013, there were more than 250
thousand illegal immigrants in Israel, 100 thousand foreign workers and
another 92 thousand tourists who did not return to their homelands. In
addition, thousands of Palestinians from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
have also entered Israel since 1967. The danger of the demographic turmoil
happening in neighboring countries could cause these numbers to grow
significantly.

“As such, Israel needs to prepare as soon as possible for new waves of
immigrants in addition to those who have already entered Israel, and mainly
for Palestinians and Arab immigrants from Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon,”
Prof. Soffer concluded.