Iranian cleric’s death leaves gap in key power body
Succession likely to be scrutinized for signs of political infighting
Asharq Al-Awsat Tuesday, 21 Oct, 2014
http://www.aawsat.net/2014/10/article55337754

Ankara, Reuters—The head of Iran’s top clerical body has died after lying in
a coma for months, leaving a gap in the only institution that has the
authority to elect and dismiss the country’s Supreme Leader.

The death of 83-year-old Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, reported by
Iranian media, is unlikely to spark any direct policy change or jockeying
for power, officials and analysts said.

But with the health of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also under
scrutiny after he underwent prostate surgery last month, any changes in the
body that will choose his successor are sensitive and closely watched.

Under Iran’s constitution, in case of the death, resignation, or dismissal
of the leader, the Assembly of Experts has to take steps “within the
shortest possible time for the appointment of the new leader.”

Created after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the assembly has never exercised
its right to dismiss a leader, but it has turned into a potential arena for
competition between rival factions in Iran’s complex power structure.

Some analysts believe that securing a majority in the assembly when it is
next elected in early 2016 would help reinforce the position of supporters
of President Hassan Rouhani, a pragmatist who has steered Iran into delicate
negotiations with the West over the country’s disputed nuclear program.

Iran is seeking the removal of international sanctions designed to curb the
program and prevent it from developing a nuclear bomb. It denies any such
ambition, and says it needs atomic power to generate electricity

“If pragmatists and moderates can secure a majority in the upcoming
parliamentary and the Assembly elections, surely they will have an upper
hand in Iran’s political arena,” said political analyst Mansour Marvi.
Parliamentary elections are also due in 2016.

In March, hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati warned of “a plot to take
over the Assembly of Experts,” reflecting fears among the supreme leader’s
loyalists that they could lose their grip on power. Such an outcome would
upset the balance of forces that Khamenei has sought to cultivate in the
past 25 years. Since taking over in 1989 from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,
founder of the Islamic Republic, he has sought to ensure that no group,
including among his own conservative allies, gains enough power to challenge
his status.

Khamenei controls the judiciary, the security forces and the Guardian
Council, which vets laws and election candidates, as well as public
broadcasters and foundations that own much of the economy.

Analysts said that following the death of Kani, prominent cleric Ayatollah
Mahmoud Hashemi-Shahroudi would continue as acting chairman of the Assembly
of Experts, whose 86 clerics are elected by the people every eight years.

Along with the Assembly, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards are also expected
to play a major role in selecting the next Supreme Leader. The Guards, who
answer directly to Khamenei, have become more assertive in politics in
recent years.