Reshet Bet: Joint list of Yishai & National Union 6 seats instead of burning
votes
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 19 December 2014

A public opinion survey commissioned by Israel Radio Reshet Bet and carried
out by Rafi Smith finds that if the Eli Yishai break-away party runs
together with Uri Ariel's National Union that they would get 6 seats while
Likud would get 22 and Bayit Yehudi 13.

If the Yishai party runs alone it does not get the minimum for entry into
the Knesset and all of its votes are wasted.

So far the National Union has not decided if it runs together with Bayit
Yehudi or with Eli Yishay's break away party.

From the standpoint of the "greater good" of the collection of parties that
are certain not to join with the Labor Party, there is no dispute among
observers that the poll data is crystal clear that the vote maximizing
format for this grouping is:

#1. Likud
#2. Bayit Yehudi
#3. National-Union together with Eli Yishay

The reason that this is a vote maximizing set-up is that poll data shows
clearly that any other arrangement yields fewer votes:

A Likud-Bayit Yehudi merger sends some Likud voters and some Bayit Yeuhdi
voters to Yesh Atid, Kachlon and Yisrael Beiteinu - all parties that may
join a Labor coalition.

Please keep in mind: the National Union does not have primaries so their
supporters are voting for national-ultra-0rthodox oriented candidates in the
primaries of Bayit Yehudi. This in addition to the national-ultra-0rthodox
oriented candidates from the National Union if there is a joint list.

If National Union remains with Bayit Yehudi the result will be that secular
voters and even non-Jewish voters who might have voted for Bayit Yehudi will
either vote for Yesh Atid or Kachlon or stay home because of the heavy
presence of national-ultra-0rthodox oriented candidates on the list. At the
same time, the Yishai party, that would not join Labor under any
condition, would most likely fail to garner enough votes to enter the
Knesset.

As this stage it appears, ironically, that there is a classic "tail wagging
the dog" situation.

National Union MK Orit Struk, who opposes on religious grounds that there
are secular Jews on the Bayit Yehudi list, finds that Eli Yishai's rabbi
opposes women being on the Yishai list for religious reasons. MK Struk has
allowed her personal future to dictate the decision of her party on this
matter. Put in the most brutal of terms: MK Struk has put her being an MK
in the joint ticket with Yishai as having priority over efforts to insure
that Labor does not come to power.

This situation is particularly bizarre because if MK Struk wants to remain
an MK she can still run today in the Bayit Yehudi primaries and is certain
to win a safe seat.

How will this end?

It is interesting to note that last night MK Yishai said that he has no
problem with a woman being an MK and he thinks the world of MK Struk. He
said that while his rabbi objects, that if this matter comes up it will have
to be discussed.

One possible "rabbinical solution" mentioned by a reporter last night: no
women among the Yisha party candidates on the joint list as per the dictat
of Yishai's rabbi BUT Struk is among the National Union candidates on the
joint list as per the ruling of the rabbis of National Union.
.
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