Weekly Commentary: EU Sanctions, the Bus Principle and the Knesset
elections
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 4 March 2015

“Our idea was to talk to the public in a language it was ready to listen to
and not try to foist on it ideas it was not ready to accept. I called it the
principle of the bus: not to argue now about what the end of the journey
will be, but to invite aboard everyone who is ready to travel to the next
stop.”
Peace Now leader Tzali Reshef as interviewed by Ari Shavit
Ha'aretz Magazine 8 November 2002

As of this writing, the post-elections EU sanctions being prepared against
the Jewish State have yet to receive much attention in the campaign.

The left, and more to the point, the folks pouring tens of millions of
dollars into the “Just Not Bibi” campaign, don’t want to raise it, as their
strategy is to lull voters into thinking that they can set aside their
concerns on Arab-Israeli affairs and vote this March for parties based on
social welfare and other issues. Parties such as Yesh Atid, that many
voters would not support if they thought that the next government would
actually make significant decisions on Arab-Israeli affairs.

My guess is that Likud and Bayit Yehudi aren’t talking about the sanctions
since the threat of sanctions is a negative consequence of refusing to
capitulate.

But the sanction are out there waiting for us.

And I would go so far as to suggest that there are people running on the
Meretz, (Labor-Livni) Zionist Camp and Yesh Atid lists who are actively
involved in discussions with EU officials regarding the sanctions.

One feature of the sanctions threat that differs from previous ones is that
in this case sanctions cannot be postponed indefinitely simply by engaging
in negotiations with the Palestinians ad infinitum.

Instead, according to reports, sanctions will be postponed for three month
intervals, with the postponement renewed ONLY if the EU is satisfied with
the “progress” of the talks.

This is an ideal application of Tzali Reshef’s “bus principle”.

There may indeed be scores of lefty politicians gleefully plotting the
sanctions with the EU today in order to force whoever is in power after the
ballots are counted to make whatever concessions are required for the
Palestinians to agree to return to the negotiating table.

But as each three month interval passes, with the concessions required for
further “progress”, the “bus” will start emptying out.

A thought: I am not sure that an Israeli is actually even driving the
bus.

Bottom line: the threat of EU sanction is very real. And the size of the
parties that can stand up against the sanctions is going to be critical in
establishing whether we find ourselves with a government that agrees to and
possibly IMPLEMENTS – a series of dangerous concessions as it bows to the
diktat of the EU.

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