Saudi Emerges as New Regional Leader
By Awad Mustafa 1:29 p.m. EDT March 29, 2015
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/warfare/2015/03/29/united-arab-emirates/70536360/

ABU DHABI — Within a 24-hour period, King Salman of Saudi Arabia delivered a
firm shock to the Iranian intelligence services, established the kingdom as
the leader of the Arab world and realigned regional powers to establish a
formidable alliance to fend off Iranian influence in the region.

The launch of operation Decisive Storm has been in play for months since the
accession of Salman Bin Abdul Aziz to the throne of Saudi Arabia, according
to Saudi analysts

The operation also has addressed internal worries about the Houthi presence
along the kingdom's southern borders, according to regional political
analyst and author Ali Shihabi.

"This operation is a very significant move by Saudi. First of all it
addresses Saudi public opinion, which was getting increasingly worried about
Iranian power surrounding the kingdom and the perceived Saudi impotence in
the face of it and the fact that the US is pulling back from the region,
thus leaving the arena free for Iran to expand its influence. So the fact
that Saudi took aggressive action now is a source of wide public
satisfaction within the kingdom," he said.

"This step also reflects the emergence of the two younger leaders rather
than the king himself: the Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef and the
Defense Minister and Royal Court chief Prince Muhammad bin Salman. Such a
proactive policy is not in traditional Saudi style and I think these two
younger leaders played the key role in pushing for it. Their credibility in
turn will be heavily impacted by the success or failure of this operation,"
he added.

The precision airstrikes have been guided by intelligence-gathering
operations over the past months to identify potential targets, said Saudi
military and security analyst Ibrahim Al-Merie.

"Operations that were conducted included electronic surveillance of the
capabilities and electronic equipment used by the Houthi forces and the
[former Yemeni President] Ali Abdullah Saleh loyalists as well," he added.

The intelligence gathering for the Saudi airstrikes in Yemen has been
supported by US forces in the region, said Mustafa Alani, director of the
military and security program at the Gulf Research Center.

"The ISR capabilities needed for targeting are not present with the member
countries of the coalition but have been provided by the US," he said.

Furthermore, the US participation in the coalition activities also include
the protection of the Gulf of Aden and the strait of Bab el-Mandab,
according to US Central Command Commander Gen. Lloyd Austin, al-Merie
stated.

"The current operation has seven stages; first is the destruction of the
Yemeni airpower and air defense systems followed by flushing out of air
resistance pockets, then the establishment of air superiority," al-Merie
said.

The fourth stage is the establishment of complete control over the theater
of operation, followed by the apprehension of key figureheads and finally
redeployment in the theater by Yemeni forces.

According to al-Merie, the land forces that will be deployed will be formed
out of the Yemeni special forces, tribes and factions loyal to President
Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi, while Arab coalition forces will be ready to
intervene and provide air support for ground operations.

The Iranian response has been one of shock, according to Alireza Nourizadeh,
director of the London-based Center for Arab Iranian Studies.

"I have been informed by sources in the Iranian government that the Iranian
defense council met in disarray at 3 a.m. Tehran time Thursday morning on
receiving news of the airstrikes," he said.

"The Iranian government has miscalculated the regional response and has also
miscalculated the American response. Iranian government sources have told me
in the past that the Obama administration supports us and supports the
Houthis because the Houthis will contain al-Qaeda in Yemen.

"The Iranian intelligence services did not even anticipate such a strike as
the national television channels, only hours before the strikes began, were
reporting news of the Houthi factions controlling the city of Aden in the
south and that President Hadi fled the country," Nourizadeh said.

The Iranian intelligence service's failure in Yemen, Nourizadeh said, is due
to the fact that Iran initially found it easy to enter and exert control in
the country.

"This action in Yemen is different to what is happening in Iraq. Yemen is
further from Iran than Iraq is and now after the placement of missile
systems, intelligence and surveillance systems in Yemen, how will they be
able to recover them," he said.

The regional coalition made up of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco, Egypt and Sudan as well as Pakistan
has been in the works for months.

The biggest indicator was the reversal of the Sudanese foreign policy, which
was a close Iranian ally.

"Sudan has changed its foreign policy since February and stepped much closer
to the gulf countries," a UAE government source told Defense News. "The
visit of President Omar Al-Bashir during IDEX2015 in Abu Dhabi and visit to
Saudi Arabia last week outlined their participation," the source added.

Furthermore, visits in March by Turkish President Reccip Tayep Erdogan and
his recent statements have returned Turkey back into the gulf political
sphere after the split due to his backing of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Within the current scenario of operations, the idea will be to put pressure
on Saleh and the Houthis to come to the negotiating table, according to
Arabian Gulf-based geopolitical affairs analyst Theodore Karasik.

"The air campaign is also designed to take out as much Houthi military
equipment [as possible]. It's important to think of Houthi weapons and
capabilities similar to Hezbollah given that both are supplied by the same
sponsor, Iran," he said.

"The Houthis have systems that can hit almost anywhere in Saudi Arabia and
the lower portion of the GCC," Karasik added. "In terms of asymmetric
operations they are able to hit typical terrorist targets such as government
buildings and landmarks to include hotels and infrastructure."

The longer the campaign continues, Karasik said, the more damage will be
done to stability in and around the southern Arabian Peninsula.

During Arab Summit meetings last week in Cairo, foreign ministers of the
Arab League announced their agreement to form a Joint Arab Strike Force for
rapid intervention in troubled hot spots.

Email: amustafa@defensenews.com

Twitter: @awadz