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Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Peace Index: Israeli Jews support annexing entire West Bank 45.3%:44.8%

The Peace Index – January 2016
(N=600)
26-28/1/2016
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=301
1. What is your position on conducting peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Strongly in favor 26.3/59.6/31.8
Moderately in favor 30.6/27.1/30.0
Moderately opposed 19.7/1.0/16.5
Strongly opposed 19.0/2.9/16.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.5/9.4/5.3
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead in the coming years to peace between Israel
and the Palestinians?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Strongly believe 5.2/10.4/6.1
Moderately believe 20.5/35.2/23.0
Moderately do not believe 27.7/14.6/25.5
Do not believe at all 43.3/36.6/42.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 3.3/3.3/3.3
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

3. At a meeting with Israeli journalists last week in Ramallah, Palestinian
president Mahmoud Abbas said he had recently conveyed clear messages to
Israel that he wanted to meet with Netanyahu but so far had not received a
reply. Do you believe or not believe Abbas?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Strongly believe 6.6/26.4/9.9
Moderately believe 17.9/36.9/21.0
Don’t believe so much 26.7/5.3/23.2
Don’t believe at all 45.4/15.1/40.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 3.4/16.3/5.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

4. Do you support or not support these two leaders holding a meeting within
a short time?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Don’t support at all 17.9/5.7/15.9
Moderately don’t support 12.2/4.3/10.9
Moderately support 34.3/43.1/35.8
Strongly support 32.4/41.7/34.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 3.2/5.1/3.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

5. Opposition chairman Isaac (Buji) Herzog recently said, “I want to
separate from the Palestinians as much as possible, as quickly as possible”
and proposed building a large wall between Jerusalem and the nearby
Palestinian villages because, at the moment, there is no partner for peace
talks on the other side. Do you agree or disagree with Herzog’s position?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Strongly agree 21.6/0/18.0
Moderately agree 27.0/6.0/23.5
Don’t agree so much 23.3/17.1/22.3
Don’t agree at all 21.0/75.0/30.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.1/1.8/6.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

6. Recently Minister Naftali Bennett and others in the government and the
Knesset criticized Defense Minister Yaalon and Prime Minister Netanyahu for
an insufficiently tough and effective policy toward the Palestinians. Do you
agree or disagree with this criticism?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Don’t agree at all 18.1/56.5/24.5
Don’t agree so much 19.0/18.2/18.9
Moderately agree 25.6/16.5/24.0
Strongly agree 32.2/0/26.8
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.1/8.8/5.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

7. Recently the U.S. ambassador told Prime Minister Netanyahu that his
country is concerned about Israel’s unequal application of the law toward
Jews and Palestinians on the West Bank. In your opinion, does Israel indeed
apply the law unequally toward Jews and Palestinians on the West Bank?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
I’m sure it does 16.3/68.1/25.0
I think it does 22.9/9.8/20.7
I think it doesn’t 24.1/1.9/20.4
I’m sure it doesn’t 28.7/12.4/26.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 8.0/7.9/8.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

8. In your eyes, is unequal application of the laws toward Jews and
Palestinians in the territories justified or not justified?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Not at all justified 19.4/52.3/24.9
Not so justified 20.3/23.3/20.8
Moderately justified 27.9/17.3/26.1
Very justified 22.2/1.9/18.8
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.3/5.1/9.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

9. In your opinion, given the close relations between the two countries,
does the United States have the right to comment to Israel on such issues?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
I’m sure it does 10.9/60.4/19.2
I think it does 26.8/14.3/24.7
I think it doesn’t 27.4/7.3/24.1
I’m sure it doesn’t 30.4/10.8/27.1
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.5/7.2/5.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

10: What, in your opinion, are the chances that the Israeli government will
make a change because of this comment by the United States and, in the
future, apply the law more equally to Jews and Palestinians in the
territories, as Shapiro claims?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Very low chances 30.0/24.5/29.1
Moderately low chances 44.3/45.6/44.5
Moderately high chances 13.3/18.5/14.1
Very high chances 2.2/2.8/2.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.3/8.7/10.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

11. In your assessment, does the international community’s criticism of
Israeli policy in the territories take equally into account the national
interests of both sides, the Israeli and the Palestinian?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
I’m sure it takes equally into account the national interests of the
Israelis and the Palestinians 2.3/24.3/6.0
I think it does 10.3/22.7/12.4
I think it doesn’t 27.8/13.1/25.3
I’m sure it doesn’t take equally into account the national interests of the
Israelis and the Palestinians 54.0/25.5/49.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.6/14.4/7.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

12. In your opinion, should or should not Israel relate seriously to the
international community’s criticism of its policy in the territories?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
I’m sure it should 11.4/56.3/18.9
I think it should 27.4/12.5/24.9
I think it shouldn’t 23.2/5.3/20.2
I’m sure it shouldn’t 32.4/13.9/29.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.6/12.0/6.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

13. What, in your opinion, are the chances that in the coming years the
international community will impose substantial pressures on Israel to put
an end to its control of the territories?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Very high chances 14.6/4.1/12.8
Moderately high chances 41.2/18.4/37.4
Moderately low chances 25.7/49.8/29.7
Very low chances 12.0/20.3/13.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 6.5/7.4/6.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

14. Do you agree or disagree with the claim that if Israel’s control of the
Palestinian territories continues in the same form, the international
community will treat Israel as a South Africa-type apartheid state with all
the ramifications?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Strongly agree 11.5/20.8/13.0
Moderately agree 27.3/30.1/27.8
Don’t agree so much 28.4/15.0/26.2
Don’t agree at all 21.1/8.5/19.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 11.7/25.6/14.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

15. Next year will mark the 50th anniversary of the Six Day War. Some claim
that the time has come for Israel to formally annex all the territories
conquered in the war that it still holds. Do you support or oppose this?
Jews %
Strongly support 25.0
Moderately support 20.3
Moderately oppose 19.4
Strongly oppose 25.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.0
Total 100.0

16. Do you agree or disagree with the claim that Israel’s ongoing control of
the territories prevents it from being a real democracy?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Strongly agree 13.8/37.7/17.8
Moderately agree 15.3/38.2/19.1
Don’t agree so much 25.5/12.2/23.3
Don’t agree at all 40.8/7.0/35.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.6/4.9/4.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

17. Some claim that the state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while
perhaps not ideal, can continue for many more years without posing a threat
to Israel’s security and existence. Do you agree or disagree with this
claim?
Jews %/ Arabs%/General Public
Strongly agree 13.2/38.4/17.4
Moderately agree 21.2/38.9/24.1
Don’t agree so much 28.9/5.1/24.9
Don’t agree at all 31.7/6.9/27.5
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.2/10.8/6.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

The Peace Index: January 2016
Date Published: 02/02/2016
Survey dates: 26/01/2016 - 28/01/2016

This month the Peace Index focused on Israeli-Palestinian relations in the
present and the future, and on Israel’s relations with the United States in
particular and the international community in general, against the backdrop
of the ongoing conflict.

No trust, but a desire to talk: Even today, after all the upturns and,
particularly, deteriorations in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, the
same dissonance recurs between the mistrust the Israeli Jewish public feels
toward the Palestinian leadership and its declared desire for a continuation
of the Jerusalem-Ramallah dialogue. A large majority (72%) does not trust
Mahmoud Abbas, who, in a meeting he held about two weeks ago with Israeli
journalists at the Mukata compound in Ramallah, said he had recently
conveyed clear messages to Israel about his desire to meet with Netanyahu
but, so far, had not received a reply. A segmentation of the issue of trust
in Abbas’s words by political camps shows that, among those defining
themselves as left-wing, a 68% majority trusts the Palestinian leader, but
in the center only 37% put trust in his words and just 7% do so on the
right. At the same time, a majority of 67% of Israeli Jews nevertheless
support a meeting between the two leaders sometime soon. All those who
identified themselves as left-wing favor such a meeting along with 92% of
those who located themselves in the center. On the right, however, less than
half (46%) want to see such a meeting. Among the Arabs, the majority (63%)
trusts Abbas’s statements and 85% support a meeting between him and
Netanyahu.

Bennett is right: A certain majority of the Jewish sample (58%) agreed with
the criticism that Minister Naftali Bennett and others directed in the
government and the Knesset at the defense minister and the prime minister,
namely that Yaalon and Netanyahu’s policy toward the Palestinians is
insufficiently tough and effective. A segmentation by voting for the Knesset
in the latest elections reveals that among voters for all the parties—except
for Meretz, the Zionist Union, and Kulanu—a majority says Bennett’s
criticism of the prime minister and the defense minister is on the mark. Not
surprisingly, among the Arabs three-fourths disagree with the criticism.

Doubts about a Herzog-type separation: The Jewish public is divided in its
view of opposition leader Isaac Herzog’s assertion that Israel should
separate as much and as rapidly as possible from the Palestinians, building
a wall to separate the Palestinian villages in the Jerusalem area from the
city: 49% favor such a policy while 44% oppose it. A segmentation of the
views on this issue by voting for the Knesset found the highest support for
Herzog’s position among Yisrael Beiteinu and Likud voters (78% and 64%
respectively). Among voters for Herzog’s own Zionist Union party, however, a
higher rate (49%) opposes his stance compared to only 43% who back it. The
strongest disagreement with Herzog’s separation plan, presumably for
mutually contradictory reasons, emerged among Meretz (75%) and Habayit
Hayehudi (55%) voters. As for the Arab interviewees, 92% were against the
proposed separation.

Unequal application of the law in the territories: We asked several
questions about U.S. ambassador Dan Shapiro’s statements of concern that
Israel, in the West Bank, is unequally applying the law to Jews and
Palestinians. A small majority of the Jewish public (53%) thinks that Israel
is not conducting such a policy. However, it appears that many of our
respondents do not see that as negative: 50% regard the unequal application
of the law as justified while only 40% object to it. A segmentation on the
question about the justice of selectively applying the law shows that, among
those defining themselves as right-wing, about two-thirds justify the
policy, compared to 42% in the center and only 18% on the left.

A clear majority of the Jewish public (58%) holds the view that, even taking
into account the close relations between the two countries, the United
States does not have the right to comment to Israel on issues of that sort.
Here too the difference between the political camps is very large: on the
right about 70% think the United States does not have the right to make such
remarks to Israel, compared to about 50% of those placing themselves in the
center and only about 20% of those situating themselves on the left. With or
without connection to the question of the United States’ right to direct
such comments at Israel, a decisive majority of the Jewish public (74%)
believes that Israel will not change its policy because of the United States’
unease about how it applies the law in the territories. In other words, the
Jewish public apparently considers that the Israeli government can allow
itself to ignore criticism by the United States, its closest friend, perhaps
assuming that this friendship will not suffer even if Israel does not
respond to the request to apply the law more equally in the territories, or
that the matter is too critical to heed the words of another country,
however close a friend.

The whole world is against us: And if that is the position toward Israel’s
great friend, the United States, it is all the more the attitude toward the
international community as a whole. To the question of whether the
international community’s criticism of Israeli policy takes the national
interests of the two sides, Israeli and Palestinian, equally into account,
82% of the Jewish public responded that they are sure (54%) or think (28%)
that it does not do so; that is, the international community heeds Israel’s
interests less than those of the Palestinians. Only among Meretz voters in
the recent elections did more interviewees say that the international
community cares about the two sides’ interests equally than those who
thought the opposite.

It is no wonder, then, that to the question of whether Israel should or
should not relate seriously to the international community’s criticism of
its policy in the territories, the majority (56%) responded that Israel
should not take this criticism seriously. That position is, though, somewhat
puzzling in light of the fact that the majority (56%) believes that, in the
coming years, there are very high or moderately high chances that the
international community will impose substantial pressures on Israel to put
an end to its control of the territories. In other words, even though the
majority of the Jewish public acknowledges the high probability of pressures
from the international community, it apparently does not fear them.
Furthermore, to the question of whether one agrees or disagrees with the
claim that if Israel’s control of the territories continues in the same
form, the international community will treat Israel as a South Africa-type
apartheid state with all that this entails, 49% answered negatively, 39%
positively, and 12% did not know what to reply.

Evidently in light of the international community’s inability to induce
Israel to end the occupation, and in contrast to the finding among the Jews,
a clear majority (70%) of the Arabs see low chances that Israel will come
under external pressures to end its control of the territories. Fifty-one
percent (vs. 23.5%) agree that if Israel’s control of the Palestinian
territories continues in the same form, the international community will
treat Israel as a South Africa-type apartheid state with all the
ramifications.

Has the time come to annex?: As the 50th anniversary of the Six Day War
approaches, the issue of whether it is time to annex the territories or,
conversely, to put an end to the occupation is all the more on the agenda.
We asked: “Next year will mark the 50th anniversary of the Six Day War. Some
claim that the time has come for Israel to formally annex all the
territories conquered in the war that it still holds. Do you support or
oppose this?” In the Jewish public we found 45% favoring annexation and
exactly the same rate opposing it.

Continuing the occupation: A considerable majority of the Jewish public
(61%) opposes the view that: “The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is perhaps
not ideal but can continue for many more years without posing a threat to
Israel’s security and existence.” It appears, then, that even among those
who support annexation, a significant number recognize the dangers entailed
by continued occupation.

Occupation and democracy: A clear majority of the Jews (66%) disagree with
the claim that the ongoing control of the territories prevents Israel from
being a real democracy. A segmentation by political camps reveals that, on
the left, 85% agree that the occupation prevents Israel from being a real
democracy, compared to 30% of those locating themselves in the center and
only 11% of right-wingers. This finding apparently reflects the profound
disagreements in the Israeli Jewish public about the effects of controlling
the territories and also, presumably, about the real nature of democracy.
Not surprisingly, the Arabs take the opposite view: 76% believe that the
occupation prevents Israel from being a real democracy.

Negotiations Index: 45.4 (Jews 42.4)

The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Public Opinion
and Policy Research of the Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey
was conducted by telephone on January 26-28, 2016, by the Midgam Research
Institute. The survey included 600 respondents, who constitute a
representative national sample of the entire adult population of Israel aged
18 and over. The maximum measurement error for the entire sample is ±4.1% at
a confidence level of 95%. Statistical processing was done by Ms. Yasmin
Alkalay.

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