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Thursday, November 9, 2017
Weekly Commentary: National Camp's Window To Act May Not Be Permanently Open

Weekly Commentary: National Camp's Window To Act May Not Be Permanently Open
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 November, 2017

Its hardly a foregone conclusion that the national camp will remain in power
if elections are held.

All it takes is for some frustrated national camp voters to stay home on
election day while others shift over to Yair Lapid's party in the belief
that nothing actually will happen relating to Arab-Israeli affairs
regardless of who is in power and thus other concerns determine their choice
of party.

When could we have elections?

It is anyone's guess.

This week Likud Minister of Science Ofir Okunis warned that we could end up
going to the polls well before the end of 2018.

And the moment that elections are announced the "window" for action shuts
down until a new government is sworn in.

Today Israel's action - or more accurately inaction - is dictated by a
desire to placate President Trump as Mr. Trump's team pursues a "peace
deal".

How long is this "Trump deal window"?

Less than two months?

After all, there are reports that Mr. Trump intends to put a "take or leave
it" deal on the table in December with the idea of preventing the parties
from dragging out the process.

It would hardly be a surprise if the parties come up with a way to
conditionally "take it" with verbiage that actually "leaves it" and then
launch talks .

Thus, the "Trump deal window" could easily stretch out to the announcement
of elections.

If the re-election of the national camp was a foregone conclusion then it
might be conceivable that placating Mr. Trump with a freeze for the duration
has its merits.

But it isn't.

Policy makers need to ask themselves a simple question: if I knew that
these were the last 4 months that the national camp is to be in power what
would I do in this "widow for action" ?

We simply cannot afford to fritter away this opportunity to set our future.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

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Arab-Israeli relations

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