Weekly Commentary: Possible Radical Regional Changes Require Immediate
Annexation of Strategic Jordan Valley
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 November 2020
The question for Israel is not the INTENTIONS of the next American
administration, but rather the probable CONSEQUENCES of the program which
they will pursue.
We can expect that the CONSEQUENCES will be a dramatically stronger Iran
pouring huge resources into building up its conventional forces in the
region along with, at best, a passive American reaction to challenges to the
legitimacy of the current regimes ruling in Jordan and elsewhere in the
region and at worst the active encouragement of regime change.
Until now, one school of Israeli security experts argued that the existence
of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan made annexation of the Jordan Valley
There is a clear and present danger that as a CONSEQUENCE of the programs
pursued by the next American administration, there will be regime change in
Jordan and we will face an Iranian backed regime across the River.
On our side of the River there is already a major program underway to
undermine our control of the area by dramatically increasing the presence of
Palestinians in the Jordan Valley. The next American administration can be
expected to support these programs and exercise unbearable pressure on
Israel to cease all efforts to thwart them.
The consequence of these developments: realization of a well thought out
scheme to create conditions on the ground in the Jordan Valley area in which
IDF forces which are supposed to address an incoming challenge from the East
find themselves handicapped by local interference.
Applying Israeli law to the Jordan Valley today would permanently end these
The international response to this move in the UN Security Council would
still be in 2020 and this subject to an American veto.
As the move would be limited to the Jordan Valley it would not ultimately
undermine our relations with the UAE and Bahrain.
There is certainly the concern that immediately applying Israeli law to the
Jordan Valley in a cabinet vote would damage relations with the next
American administration. But such concerns are based on the assumption that
some form of good will serve to restrain the next American administration
from pursuing its program in our region.
Expect no restraint.
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations