IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Bennett - Flydubai FZ1073 Was A Miracle Which Hinged On Heroism

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 10:05:11 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Mr. Bennett - Flydubai FZ1073 Was A Miracle Which Hinged On Heroism
Dr. Aaron Lerner 1 October 2026

I was stunned to learn that, in an interview on The Faulkner Focus , Former PM Naftali Bennett said of the safe outcome of Flydubai FZ1073 "...it's not a miracle. It's called heroism".

Bennett knows better.

Because the requirement of human heroism to facilitate miracles goes to the very heart of the schism between Haredis who claim they would rather die than serve in the IDF and the rest of Israeli society.

We embrace the assertion of our sages that the Red Sea only parted when Nachshon bravely stepped into the waters.

We choose to exercise our privilege take an active role in our wonderous page - chapter - book - in this continuation of the Bible, confident that if we bravely face our challenges that divine intervention will reward our bravery.

Again: our sages don't claim that the sea split because Nachshon prayed. It split because he acted.

If the Haredi leadership today had called the shots, the sea would never have split, and the Egyptian army would have ended our Exodus in a massacre.

In many ways, the requirement of human action for miracles to take place is a core issue of our coming elections.

The Haredi parties think our defense, economy, and all other needs could be met by miracles which don't hinge on the extent of their active participation in these matters.

The Likud party acts as if miracles will continue to make It possible to indefinitely postpone taking measures so that the growing Hareidi sector participates in our defense, economy, and all other needs at the levels required to sustain the nation.

And there are those in the Left who think that a miracle would make it possible for the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state to herald peace for generations to come.

Heroes did indeed save the day on Flydubai FZ1073.

But as one goes through all the details, these were heroes participating in a miracle.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Will Pending Israeli Elections Shield Us From Additional Pre-Election Lebanon Pilots?

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 15:31:36 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Will Pending Israeli Elections Shield Us From Additional
Pre-Election Lebanon Pilots?

Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 September 2026

The pilot program in Lebanon has been a dismal failure.

Hezbollah remains active in the areas allocated for the first pilot program.
Lebanese forces refuse to follow through on Israeli intelligence reports -
at most coming to the entrances of Hezbollah weapons stores we have
identified but not actually searching.

The roadblock inspections have also been a farce.

Yes. Hezbollah has generously provided some weapons for photo ops.

But there is no real answer to the detailed Israeli reports.

With elections also coming up in the United States, American officials have
opted to keep their blinders on in order to maintain the illusion that the
pilot program, as is, can be extended.

Fortunately, we also have elections coming up, and Mr. Trump no doubt can
appreciate that it would be political suicide for Netanyahu to ignore
reality and advance the pilot program before the elections.

The big losers in this farce are the Lebanese.

After all, if Washington accepts those photo-op displays of Hezbollah
weapons as proof of success, it makes it just that harder to justify
actually doing the job.

One can only hope that things will improve when concerns over the midterm
elections no longer drive policy in the White House.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Follow the Arcs of David and His COS Yoav in the Page-Turners Samuel and 1 Kings

Fri, 18 Sep 2026 06:16:59 -0400

Follow the Arcs of David and His COS Yoav in the Page-Turners Samuel and 1
Kings
Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 September 2026

If you tend to take a binary approach when thinking about our leadership in
Israel today, I recommend reading again that tremendous page-turner, Samuel,
and then following the dramatic conclusions of the arcs of David and his
chief of staff, Yoav, in 1 Kings.

It may give you some perspective.
_______________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: [Exclusive: detailed description of test] US claims 48 F-35s to Saudis has no significant impact on regional arms balance

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 18:27:08 -0400

Weekly Commentary: [Exclusive: detailed description of test] US claims 48
F-35s to Saudis has no significant impact on regional arms balance
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 September, 2026

The following is a detailed description of the procedure followed by the
United States Government to determine, as require by US law, that supplying
48 F-35s to the Saudis "will not alter the military balance in the region ".

Step #1. Locate the "announcement of proposed sale" form on the word
processor.

Step #2. Add in the details of the proposed sale.

Step #3. Save the file.

Step #4. Distribute the announcement.

Now since the form on the word processor includes the phrase that the sale
"will not alter the military balance in the region" then it won't.

It is as simple as that.

No standards.

No study.

No committee.

No nothing.

Just boiler plate language in the announcement of the proposed sale.

Was this what Congress had in mind when it voted this requirement into law?

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter Aircraft
Foreign Military Sales: Congressional Notification
https://www.state.gov/releases/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/2026/09/kingdom-of-saudi-arabia-f-35-lightning-ii-joint-strike-fighter-aircraft

Bureau of Political-Military Affairs

September 17, 2026

Transmittal #26-69

The U.S. Department of State has made a determination approving a possible
foreign military sale to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for their purchase of
F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter and related equipment. The estimated
total cost is $24.3 billion.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has requested to buy forty-eight (48) F-35
Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft with conventional takeoff and
landing; and forty-nine (49) Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines (48
installed, 1 spare). The following non-MDE items will also be included:
AN/PYQ-10 simple key loaders; KIV-78 cryptographic appliques; secure
communications, precision navigation, and cryptographic devices; electronic
warfare database support; cartridge actuated devices/propellant actuated
devices; aircraft and munitions support and support equipment; spare parts,
consumables and accessories, and repair and return support; training aids,
devices, and spare parts; engine component improvement program; major and
minor modifications and maintenance support; classified and unclassified
software delivery and support; classified and unclassified publications and
technical documentation; transportation, ferry, and refueling support;
personnel training and training equipment, including simulators; clothing,
textiles, and individual equipment; studies and surveys; site surveys; U.S.
Government and engineering, technical, and logistics support services; and
other related elements of logistics and program support.

This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security
objectives of the United States by improving the security of a major
non-NATO ally that is a force for political stability and economic progress
in the Gulf region.

The proposed sale will improve Saudi Arabia's capability to deter current
and future threats by strengthening its homeland defense, and improving
interoperability with U.S. forces, and other regional and NATO forces. The
proposed sale will also augment Saudi Arabia's operational aircraft and
enhance its air-to-air, and air-to-ground self-defense capability. The
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will have no difficulty absorbing this equipment and
services into its armed forces.

The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the military
balance in the region.

The principal contractors will be Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company,
located in Fort Worth, Texas; and Pratt & Whitney Military Engines, located
in East Hartford, Connecticut. At this time, the U.S. Government is not
aware of any offset agreement proposed in connection with this potential
sale. Any offset agreement will be defined in negotiations between the
purchaser and contractor.

Implementation of this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any
additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia.

There will be no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness as a result of
this proposed sale.

For further information, please contact the Bureau of Political-Military
Affairs Outreach Team at T_Outreach_PM@State.gov.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Sarit Zehavi: The Truth Behind the Film "Naza" (Collateral Damage): What the Filmmakers Deliberately Missed

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 13:41:13 -0400

Sarit Zehavi: The Truth Behind the Film "Naza" (Collateral Damage): What the Filmmakers Deliberately Missed
[September 16, 2026 Alma Center Weekly Newsletter

The creators of the recent documentary dealing with the topic of "Naza" (a Hebrew military acronym for Nezek Agavi - collateral damage) did not have to work too hard to discover the truth.

They could have simply interviewed me. I would have stood in front of the camera, without hiding my identity, on the roof of my house located nine kilometers from Lebanon, after we absorbed endless barrages of rockets here, and explained the reality on the ground to them.

A little less than 20 years ago, I was one of the founders of the field within the IDF that deals with warning populations on the other side of enemy lines and preserving the lives of their civilians.

We built the work processes that define how to call upon the population to evacuate, and how to track that evacuation. I was personally involved in formulating the target approval processes and operational discussions.

If they had spoken with me, I would have explained to them that the chart shown at the beginning of the film is not a chart for conducting killings, but rather a planning chart for a target identified as being used by Hamas.

Its purpose is to determine whether to strike a target at all, who in the command echelon is authorized to approve it, with what munitions, and under what conditions. In stark contrast to what is stated in the film, when the words "Naza 500 – collateral damage estimated at 500" appear in the approval process, the meaning is that action must be taken to reduce the collateral damage.

There are a variety of ways to do this, such as a call for evacuation, precision munitions, or canceling the strike entirely (what is known as an unapproved target). Noting the collateral damage on the target sheet does not signify an intention to carry out the killing of civilians or a "genocide"; it is intended, first and foremost, to prevent it.

Our enemies, both Hamas and Hezbollah, deliberately plant their rockets and headquarters in the heart of the civilian population, in tunnels under Beirut or in high-rise residential buildings in southern Lebanon. Hamas in Gaza did the same, using children as human shields. They do this based on the working assumption that if Israel strikes without warning, 500 civilians will be killed. That is exactly their goal. But Israel chooses differently: there are at least hundreds of soldiers and officers in the IDF whose entire role is the protection of the enemy's population. That is what they think about when they wake up in the morning. This is what the IDF pays them a salary for.

If the editors of the film had wanted to conduct serious research, they could have interviewed former (like me) and present IDF soldiers and officers, who would tell them the truth about collateral damage. But they chose not to do so.

The promo for the film claims that the IDF "never checks the number of civilians killed."

The truth is that checking the exact number of casualties in enemy territory in real-time is a complex and nearly impossible task. This is exactly why the collateral damage assessment process was created in advance, to consider the size of the structure and the routine number of civilians in its vicinity.

The IDF has invested and continues to invest massive resources - intelligence personnel, legal experts, operational personnel from the air and ground forces, and technological experts - to develop command and control systems that accurately reflect where civilians are present and where they are not. I was personally involved in
developing these tools during my military service in the Northern Command and during my subsequent reserve service.

From my experience, I can testify that a whole world of intelligence stands behind this effort. In the Intelligence Directorate, there are several desks whose exclusive role is tracking the evacuation percentages of the population from rural and urban areas after the IDF has published warnings. If a high percentage of the population has evacuated following the warnings, the collateral damage assessment drops, and only then is a strike on the terror infrastructure permitted.

But unfortunately, it is precisely the IDF's efforts to preserve the lives of the enemy's population, namely, the evacuation warnings and tracking of the evacuation status, that have been interpreted as "ethnic cleansing" in international media, while ignoring the scope of the terror infrastructure exposed inside and beneath the villages in both Lebanon and Gaza, in every house.

I have been asked several times by reporters why we evacuate such extensive areas. Here is my answer: when Hamas or Hezbollah dig a tunnel network under villages, it is impossible to destroy them without harming the dozens of houses above them. A targeted evacuation of a specific house during a tunnel explosion will result in harm to civilians.

Despite the extensive intelligence efforts invested to ensure that the target is clear of civilians, this is a world where uncertainty is exceedingly high. Intelligence will always be partial and insufficient. There have been many recorded cases where there was no information about the presence of civilians in the terror infrastructure or near the terrorist, and they were killed as a result. This grim outcome cannot erase the fact that efforts to prevent collateral damage are indeed made.

Decision-making on the battlefield is complex, the dilemmas are immense, and the nature of the battlefield is that mistakes are sometimes made. But the difference between us and the enemy is enormous. In contrast to the radical Islamic ideology of Hamas and Hezbollah, who publicly declare that their goal is to kill Israeli civilians (and act accordingly), we state clearly that we have no intention whatsoever of killing civilians in enemy territory, and we even allow the entry of humanitarian aid into the combat zone, despite the fact that this harms our operational achievement in the fight against terrorism.

As parents of soldiers, this is how we educate our children - civilians are not a target. And these children grow up to become the soldiers and officers who serve in the IDF.

It is unfortunate that the filmmakers chose not to conduct real research. Contrary to what is required by journalistic ethics, they even refrained from sending the report to the IDF for comment, so it is impossible to know what roles the interviewees held within the system, and whether their point of view, assuming it is authentic, is even relevant to understanding the chain of approvals and actions taken prior to striking a target.

The filmmakers preferred to tell a story from a very narrow angle, to interview anonymous sources whose level of involvement, rank, and understanding of the process is unclear, and to completely ignore the experts who built these systems with one goal: preserving human life. There are such experts. I was one of them.

Sarit Zehavi
Your eyes and ears on the northern border,
Alma Research and Education Center
COPYRIGHT © 2019 ALMA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Weekly Commentary: Feiglin Precedent - Candidates of Entire List Resign to Avoid Burning Votes

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 13:39:10 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Feiglin Precedent - Candidates of Entire List Resign to
Avoid Burning Votes
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 September 2026

On 31 July 2019, Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party submitted a list of candidates
for the 22nd Knesset elections to the Central Elections Committee.

On 3 September 2019, the entire list of Zehut candidates submitted their
resignations from their candidacies to the chairman of the Central Elections
Committee in accordance with Section 87(a) of the Knesset Elections Law,
which provides that a candidate may resign at any time.

On 17 September 2019, elections were held, and since the entire Zehut list
had resigned, there wasn't a Zehut slip in the voting booths for voters to
select.

That's right.

Zehut pulled out only two weeks before the elections.

We have a 3.25% threshold in our elections.

If a list receives less than 3.25% of all valid votes in the elections, then
the list has no representation in the Knesset and its votes do not count in
the allocation of Knesset seats.

"Burned votes."

Considerable pressure was exerted on people from lists which might burn
votes not to register to run in the elections.

But I can understand that the leaders of those lists felt that it was
premature to pull out of the race.

That they wanted to see how they do after the public knows who is actually
running in the elections.

Our elections will be held on 27 October 2026.

There is still time for lists to claw their way up in public opinion.

But if, as we approach Election Day, a list sees - via extensive polling -
that there is a significant possibility that it will burn votes, then it
owes it to its supporters to resign from the race so that its supporters
don't burn their votes.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il