IMRA Middle East News Updates

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Thu, 22 Jan 2026 18:12:57 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Disaster If Trump Blinking Not Bluffing

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 18:03:33 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Disaster If Trump Blinking Not Bluffing
Dr. Aaron Lerner 22 January 2026

By the most conservative estimates, in the coming days the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) would be able to participate in an attack on Iran Which jibes with the threats President Trump made.

Threats which encouraged many thousands of Iranian civilians to willingly sacrifice their lives in protests as part of an effort to bring down the terrible Iranian regime.

When Mr. Trump thanked Iran for not publicly executing protestors cynics suggested that he was giving Iran a pass to continue torturing them to death off camera.

I hope and pray that next week we learn that the cynics were wrong.

That the confusing talk was just to put Iran off guard.

Prime Minister Netanyahu knows the truth.

If Netanyahu knows that President Trump is blinking, then he must assume Trump will blink on other matters relating to Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, etc..

And everything we do from this point forward must take this painful reality into account.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Reminder: 2 Jan 26 Weekly Commentary: Trump's Unprecedented Threat to Iran Over the Killing of Protesters

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 17:45:58 -0500

Reminder:Weekly Commentary: Trump's Unprecedented Threat to Iran Over the
Killing of Protesters
Dr. Aaron Lerner 2 January 2026
[14 January 2026 I am recirculating this commentary from two weeks ago as my
commentary for this week after President Trump told reporters, "the killing
has stopped".]

"If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their
custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are
locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this
matter!"
President DONALD J. TRUMP
2 January 2026, Truth Social

As far as I can tell, no American president has ever issued such a clear
warning to a foreign country regarding the consequences of killing peaceful
protesters.

I am not going to engage in speculation as to whether Mr. Trump's team will
resort to hyper-technical analyses of each incident in which protesters are
killed in order to avoid being put to the test.

#1. Was the shooter a true representative of the Iranian regime?
#2. Were those killed truly "protesters"?
#3. Were they 100 percent "peaceful"?

I will suggest only this: if, in the coming days, more Iranian protesters
are killed and no action is taken to come to their rescue - despite the
declaration that "we are locked and loaded and ready to go" - this may
undermine the deterrent effect of other warnings issued by President Trump.

And that could be very dangerous for all of us.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

MK Gafni cites non-existent history to defend blanket IDF service

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 05:32:44 -0500

MK Gafni cites non-existent history to defend blanket IDF service waiver
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 January 2026

In an interview on Reshet Bet this morning, MK Moshe Gafni of Yahadut
Hatorah stated as fact it is well known that King David and others had an
equal number of people studying Torah as fighters.

This argument is one of the favorite arguments for a blanket waiver from IDF
service for those who register with a Yeshiva.

(I write "register with a Yeshiva" because MK Gafni strongly opposes any
measure to effectively check that they are actually studying.)

No classical or medieval source (Biblical, Talmudic, Midrashic, or from
figures like the Maharal) frames Torah scholars and soldiers in a strict
one-to-one ratio or headcount parity. Key traditional references include:

- Sotah 44b (and related discussions): Some fight with weapons while others
support through Torah/prayer, but no quantification.

- Bamidbar Rabbah and similar midrashim: Torah study as a parallel
protective "force" to arms.

- Joshua 1:8 and broader themes: Success tied to Torah devotion, but as
divine causation, not demographic matching.

- Later thinkers (e.g., Maharal, Netziv on spoils-sharing in some
interpretations): Metaphysical or functional equivalence, without numbers.

The explicit 1:1 formulation (one Torah scholar "matches" or is equivalent
to one soldier in defense contribution) is indeed a modern rhetorical
device, emerging in the mid-20th century amid Israel's founding, universal
conscription debates, and tensions over yeshiva deferments.

Historical context:
- In 1948, David Ben-Gurion approved exemptions for only ~400 yeshiva
students (a tiny number then), based on qualitative arguments about
preserving Torah study as a spiritual bulwark.
- As haredi (ultra-Orthodox) populations grew and deferments expanded (from
hundreds to tens of thousands), the discourse shifted toward justifying mass
exemptions in state-budget and manpower terms.
- The numerical 1:1 slogan appears in political and rabbinic advocacy from
roughly the 1950s-1970s onward, translating classical spiritual claims into
pragmatic, secular-state language during conscription controversies (e.g.,
post-1948 debates, Tal Committee era in the 1990s-2000s, and recent Supreme
Court rulings).

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Poll Shows Saudis See Israel Differently Than Others

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 08:42:24 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Poll Shows Saudi Street Sees Israel Differently Than
Others
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 January 2026

Take a look at some of the results of this poll of our neighbors:

"Which country do you consider the greatest threat to the security of your
country?"
(percentage identifying Israel as the greatest threat)
Mashreq (Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria) 53%
Nile Valley (Egypt, Sudan) 38%
Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar) 9%

Do you support or oppose your country recognizing Israel?
(% opposing recognition)
Jordan 95%
Egypt 87%
Lebanon 89%
Syria 74%
Saudi Arabia 61%

Is the Palestinian cause a collective Arab cause or only a Palestinian
cause?
(% saying "The Palestinian cause is a collective Arab cause")
Jordan 93%
Egypt 69%
Lebanon 67%
Syria 69%
Saudi Arabia 62%%

The Arab Opinion Index 2024-25 was conducted between November 2024 and
August 2025, according to the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies.
The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, which produced the survey,
is based in Doha, Qatar
https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/arab-index-2
025-in-brief-en.pdf

While these results don't indicate that Saudis would be dancing in the
street to celebrate Saudi-Israeli diplomatic relations, they certainly
indicate that the Saudi leadership faces less pressure than others in our
neighborhood to avoid improved relations with the Jewish State.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Trump's Unprecedented Threat to Iran Over the Killing of Protesters

Fri, 02 Jan 2026 09:38:32 -0500

Weekly Commentary: Trump's Unprecedented Threat to Iran Over the Killing of
Protesters
Dr. Aaron Lerner 2 January 2026

As far as I can tell, no American president has ever issued such a clear
warning to a foreign country regarding the consequences of killing peaceful
protesters.

I am not going to engage in speculation as to whether Mr. Trump's team will
resort to hyper-technical analyses of each incident in which protesters are
killed in order to avoid being put to the test.

#1. Was the shooter a true representative of the Iranian regime?
#2. Were those killed truly "protesters"?
#3. Were they 100 percent "peaceful"?

And that could be very dangerous for all of us.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il