IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Keep Three No-So-Wise Monkeys Out of Gaza

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 20:03:32 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Keep Three No-So-Wise Monkeys Out of Gaza
Dr. Aaron Lerner 30 October 2025

When Israel recently finally started complaining about the numerous daily
drone flights from Egyptian Sinai to Israel smuggling in assault rifles and
even MAG machine guns, Egyptian officials angrily denied that the smuggling
was taking place.

When Hamas staged the recovery of the remains of an Israeli hostage this
week, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) publicly
criticized Hamas.

Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan the UAE and the others all remained silent.

Three monkeys.
- See no evil.
- Hear no evil.
- Speak no evil

Technically the term is "three wise monkeys" but they don't deserve the word
"wise".

I'm sure that a bunch of troops from various countries deployed in the Gaza
Strip would make for a nice photo op.

But our interest is what happens on the ground after the photos.

There is absolutely no reason to expect teams from these countries to behave
any better if they are deployed in the Gaza Strip than they already do when
it comes to Hamas.

It could very well be that the only truly viable arrangement is a return to
Israeli control of the Gaza Strip with an unprecedented use of drones,
sensors and other technologies to make it sustainable.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Why is Israel withdrawing so Hamas can search for Israeli bodies?

Sun, 26 Oct 2025 15:26:48 -0400

Why is Israel withdrawing so Hamas can search for Israeli bodies?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 26 October 2025

Dear Reader,

The following isn’t some radically sarcastic fabrication designed to show the Israeli leadership in a bad light.

Here’s an English translation from a report by Gillie Cohen from Kan which she just posted:

“Israel allows Hamas to enter for field patrols and physical work to search for kidnapped civilians - in areas controlled by Israel... Following pressure from the mediators and President Trump's envoys... The IDF is withdrawing from those areas where Hamas and the Red Cross are operating, so that there is no encounter between that activity and IDF forces on the ground.”

https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/964344/

We have top flight teams who are experts in recovering bodies.

We know where to look in the areas under our control.

==> WHAT ELSE WILL HAMAS RECOVER?!?

==> And what are the odds that we ever recover control of any area we leave?

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: President Trump attributes the Gaza deal to Qatar attack

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 17:33:34 -0400

Weekly Commentary: President Trump attributes the Gaza deal to Qatar attack
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 October 2025

Take a look at this excerpt from "Phone interview with TIME at the White
House on Oct. 15, 1025"
https://time.com/7327689/trump-israel-gaza-deal-interview-transcript/
###
President Trump: And when he [Netanyahu] made that one tactical mistake, the
one on Qatar, and that was terrible, but actually, and I actually told the
emir, this was one of the things that brought us all together, because it
was so out of joint that it sort of got everybody to do what they have to
do. Does that make sense to you?

TIME Senior Political Correspondent Eric Cortellessa: Yes, definitely.

President Trump: If you took that away, we might not be talking about this
subject right now.
…
President Trump on Mahmoud Abbas: I've always found him reasonable, but
he's probably not.
###

So what was the "tactical mistake"?

The attack itself or the failure to take into account that the Hamas leaders
would step into another room without their cellphones for the Asr afternoon
prayer, thus missing the 3:46 pm pinpoint airstrike?

Was it "terrible" to bomb or "terrible" to miss?

After all, how can President Trump term an operation to kill the leader of
Hamas a "mistake" and then attribute the Gaza deal going through to that
very same operation?

President Trump's observation regarding Mahmoud Abbas indicates a
sophistication far beyond that of many Israelis.

On the one hand, Mr. Trump notes that Abbas talks the talk, so on the
surface he appears to be "reasonable.

But is Abbas actually reasonable?

"He's probably not", notes President Trump..

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Can an International Stabilization Farce in Gaza Be Prevented?

Sat, 18 Oct 2025 14:29:12 -0400

Can an International Stabilization Farce in Gaza Be Prevented?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 October 2025

Let's look at the lineup for the International Stabilization Force for Gaza:

Egypt: Corrupt Egyptian security forces have continuously facilitated Hamas
smuggling, while Egyptian officials protested vociferously when we
complained and claimed everything was under control.

Turkey: Active supporter of Hamas, with Turkish intelligence already having
a heavy presence with their Hamas comrades in Gaza. Don't be surprised if
the mission of the Turkish teams sent to ostensibly help recover the bodies
of Israeli hostages is also to restore safe access to some of Hamas's
massive underground weapons factories.

Indonesia: Just denied visas to Israeli athletes to a world championship.
Hezbollah ran a training center 200 meters from an Indonesian UNIFIL post.

Want to see piles of weapons being destroyed?

No problem.

There will be more than enough weapons hidden in the stream of trucks coming
in from Egypt for impressive photo ops.

And they can even be real ones!

Hamas is now manufacturing more rockets in its underground factories, so it
shouldn't be a problem for them to drop all QC standards and churn out piles
of useless rockets for photo ops.

There could even be some piles of obsolete production equipment to destroy
for a photo op or two.

Is there any way for this to work?

Are there benchmarks that can actually have significance?

That's up to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

I say Mr. Netanyahu because the photo ops may meet President Trump's
immediate needs, and if Hamas is patient, the next blowout can be when
someone else is in the White House.

It's a tough decision for Netanyahu: with elections coming up, is your
priority winning the elections (those photo ops - though a farce - will look
great) or getting the job done right?

And I'll add a twist: could Binyamin Netanyahu think he can have his cake
and eat it too - basking in the meaningless photo ops as we go to the voting
booths and then insisting on real disarmament after he forms his next
government?

I don't have the expertise to propose benchmarks and milestones that can
overcome intentional faking.

But there are a lot of smart Israelis who can.

Makor Rishon. Maariv, Haaretz, Ynet, TV, radio - you name it - should all be
reaching out to those smart Israelis to let the country know their ideas.

Hopefully, if there are effective benchmarks and milestones circulating in
the media, the decision-makers will adopt them.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Why I Oppose Snap Elections For Likud Chair

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 19:07:52 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Why I Oppose Snap Elections For Likud Chair
Dr. Aaron Lerner 16 October 2023

Members of the Likud Central Committee will be voting on 23 October on a
proposal that elections be held on 25 November for the chairman of the Likud
Party and the Likud's candidate for prime minister in the next elections.

Normally such a move is made when we are about to have elections, but that
is not the case today.

At least so far.

I believe that snap elections serve no one's interests.

The situation is so dynamic and there are so many "balls in the air" that it
is impossible to predict what the next elections will focus on nor how
Binyamin Netanyahu will fit into the picture.

In a best-case scenario, we will have elections after the situation with
Hamas has been satisfactorily concluded and other issues have been resolved,
with no doubt a huge victory for Netanyahu in elections for party chair
followed by fantastic results in the national elections.

But sometimes the situation doesn't turn out to be the best-case.

It can be argued that postponing the elections for the Likud chair can have
a positive influence on the decision-making process as, if nothing else, a
justification to third parties for declining to make unacceptable
compromises.

As the People of the Book we appreciate that even the greatest of leaders
aren't perfect.

Moses wasn't allowed to enter the Promised Land and I'm not going to go into
the consequences of decisions made by our wise King Solomon....

Binyamin Netanyahu has most certainly earned an important place in this new
chapter of our story.

And in the last two years Netanyahu made the critical decisions - often in
the face of considerable opposition - which took us from one of the most
dangerous focus of enemy forces we have ever faced to our dramatically
improved situation today.

It is indeed my fervent hope that if the vote is postponed to shortly before
the national elections that conditions bring Mr. Netanyahu a landslide
victory should he choose to run.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

PCPO Poll of Gazans: 6.6 % – Hamas’s survival is a “moral victory.”

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 10:19:08 -0400

PCPO Poll of Gazans: 6.6 % – Hamas’s survival is a “moral victory.”

Here is a question-by-question summary of Poll No. 215 – “Gaza War… A Battle Without a Victor” conducted by Dr. Nabil Kukali for the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) between 8–12 October 2025 .

Source: www.pcpo.org
1. Who won the Gaza war?
71.1 % – “No clear winner; both sides lost.”
11.3 % – Israel / Netanyahu’s government won.
11.0 % – Hamas won.
6.6 % – Don’t know / no answer.

2. Why do respondents think there was no victor?
64.1 % – Widespread destruction and suffering with no political gains.
6.6 % – Hamas’s survival is a “moral victory.”
3.0 % – Israel / Netanyahu gained politically.
1.3 % – Increased global sympathy for Palestinians.
1.4 % – Truce is only temporary.
17.6 % – Miscellaneous views (citizens themselves are the biggest losers).

3. Feelings after announcement of war’s end
53.8 % – Joy + relief with caution/anxiety.
27.0 % – Sadness / fear / psychological fatigue.
6.6 % – No change in life.

4.Top priorities for Gaza after the war

Priority %
Rebuilding homes & infrastructure 41.5 %
Humanitarian aid & civilian protection 20.3 %
Release of prisoners / hostages 9.3 %
National unity & reconciliation 13.0 %
Prevent re-armament / monitoring 4.0 %
Accountability for perpetrators 1.7 %
Emigration desire 7.0 %
Don’t know / no answer 3.3 %

5. Evaluation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s role
44.5 % – Positive (to some degree).
30.2 % – Negative.
19.3 % – Neutral / no influence.

Trust in Trump personally
54.2 % – Little or no confidence.
35.2 % – Partial / full confidence.
10.7 % – Neutral / no influence

6. Expectations for Gaza’s future
40.9 % – Gradual improvement expected.
38.9 % – Problems will persist long term.
9.6 % – Optimistic about political progress (unity gov’t / aid).
10.6 % – Uncertain / fear renewed conflict.

7. President Mahmoud Abbas’s participation in Sharm El-Sheikh ceremony

56.2 % – Important for legitimacy and visibility.
41.2 % – Not important.
2.4 % – Don’t know

8. Assessment of Egypt’s role
83.5 % – Effective in achieving ceasefire.
10.6 % – Ineffective.
5.9 % – Don’t know.

9. Sample & methodology
301 respondents (18–76 years; avg ≈ 35 yrs).
Gender: 56.3 % male / 43.7 % female.
Governorates: North Gaza 16.6 %, Gaza City 27.6 %, Deir al-Balah 18.3 %, Khan Yunis 19.3 %, Rafah 15.9 %.
Method: CATI telephone interviews.
Response rate: 75 %.
Margin of error: ± 5.6 % (95 % confidence).
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il