Weekly Commentary: Adjust Target Bank In Light of Social-Political
Developments in Lebanon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 8 November, 2019

No one knows how the popular protest in Lebanon will play out.

And that makes it that much more difficult to predict what Hezbollah, which
faces the possibility of suffering a major loss in power and position in
Lebanon, may do in order to quell the protests.

It would hardly be surprising if Hezbollah sought to divert the wrath of the
public towards Israel.

Which brings us to the IDF "target bank".

The target bank includes Lebanese infrastructure that we might destroy in
response to Hezbollah attacks on Israeli civilian targets.

We have to ask ourselves if destroying Lebanese infrastructure would serve
the interests of Hezbollah.

Would the Lebanese public scorn Hezbollah for its role in the series of
events that ultimately caused Israel to plunge Lebanon into darkness or
would the Israeli attacks focus the Lebanese public against a common Israeli
enemy?

It is best that we invest a lot of creative thinking now to come up with
targets that meet two criteria:

#1. Their destruction is perceived by all players as a serious quid pro
quo. We cannot afford to be seen as weak.

#2. Their destruction does not cause the Lebanese civilian population to
unite against us.

Beyond this we face the incredible challenge of a multitude of legitimate
military targets (rockets, armories, etc.) that Hezbollah has placed behind
civilian human shields that we must destroy in the event of a conflict in
order to preserve our own security. Advance multidisciplinary preparations
to meet this technological-diplomatic-PR challenge are critical.
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