[IMRA: Bad news for withdrawal backers] Hizbullah 'likely' to attack during
US-Iraq war
By DAVID RUDGE The Jerusalem Post 19 November 2002

[IMRA: The Hebrew edition of Ha'aretz had a similar article but for some
reason the editors of the English edition declined to share this information
with their readers. Withdrawal supporters frequently point to the
unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon as a fantastic success that should be
repeated in the West Bank and Gaza Strip because as of this minute the
Hizbullah forces that are on Israel's northern border (who have been
tracking literally every Israeli movement near the border for more than a
year to enable them to maximum the effectiveness of their opening attack at
a time and place of their choosing) have not yet attacked. The same logic
is used by many Israelis who decline to have their children use seat belts
when driving since - as of that moment they haven't been in an accident.]

Hizbullah could take advantage of any US-led assault on Iraq to launch
missiles at targets in Israel, a senior IDF officer said on Monday.

According to the officer, the government may need to reassess Israel's
policy of restraint along the northern border, as well as its approach to
the use of force, depending on events vis-a-vis Iraq.

The possibility of Hizbullah joining the fray in the event of Iraqi
retaliation against Israel is considered a serious possibility, especially
in light of its public support for Palestinian terrorist organizations and
its own ongoing operations.

Since the IDF's withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000, 10 Israelis
have been killed, including six in the terrorist infiltration near Kibbutz
Matzuva in March this year, as well as four soldiers, in Hizbullah's
cross-border attacks.

The last fatality occurred in a Hizbullah attack on IDF positions in the
Mount Dov region on August 31. The three soldiers were kidnapped in a
Hizbullah ambush in the same region in October 2000.

Hizbullah, which America has defined as a leading terrorist organization,
certainly has the military means to attack Israel with an estimated 1,000
highly-trained fighters, and thousands more who can be called upon at short
notice.

According to recent reports, Hizbullah has more than 8,000 Katyusha rockets,
including long-range missiles capable of reaching Haifa and its environs, in
addition to an armory of mortars, anti-tank missiles, some artillery pieces,
and explosive devices.

There have also been unconfirmed reports that the organization has trained
in the use of chemical weapons with al-Qaida operatives in Lebanon.

The senior IDF officer said Syria had supplied Hizbullah with 220-millimeter
missiles that have a range of 75 kilometers but are not noted for being
particularly accurate.

The same source said efforts are being made to produce 303mm rockets. On the
basis of the size, such missiles would be capable of reaching as far south
as Tel Aviv.

The senior officer added that Syria is helping to build Hizbullah into a
factor that would be capable of vying with Israel, without dragging Syria
into a direct confrontation with Israel.

The bulk of Hizbullah's armory is supplied by Iran, which is its main
financier, ideological mentor, and trainer, although the security source
maintained that Syria also has a vested interest in ensuring that the
organization pose a potential threat to Israel from Lebanon.

According to the source, Hizbullah is unique in terms of its military might
for a non-sovereign organization within a state.

The senior officer said the prospect of a war with Syria is low, but could
not be ruled out completely.

Syria, he said, is trying to increase the survivability of its forces
through means of camouflage and hiding military development projects.