Iranian 'Sputnik' Could Be Trojan Horse for Tehran's Ballistic Missile
Program
(Source: Aviation Week Group; issued Nov. 28, 2004)
[With thanks to www.defense-aerospace.com ]

NEW YORK --- Aviation Week & Space Technology reports in its November 29
issue that U. S. intelligence analysts are concerned about the planned
launch from Iran, by early 2005, of an Iranian built satellite on an
upgraded version of Tehran's largest ballistic missile, the Shahab-3.

The preparations for and launch of one or more Iranian satellite "is
something that needs to be watched closely," a U. S. government missile
analyst familiar with Iranian capabilities told AW&ST.

Such an "Iranian Sputnik" would elevate the stature of the Iran in the
Middle East.

Tehran's satellite launch plans could also be a "Trojan Horse" to further
advance ballistic missile or nuclear warhead related technologies, sources
told the magazine. Some of the materials and micro-electronic technologies
necessary for Iranian satellite design could also be important for the
development of tiny high quality components needed to produce small nuclear
weapons, AW&ST reports.

The U. S. intelligence community was taken by surprise in 1998 when a North
Korean satellite launch attempt unexpectedly demonstrated a long range North
Korean missile capability. U. S. intelligence officials said they do not
want to be surprised again, this time by Iran.

Even if they fail initially, Iranian satellite launch attempts would help
Iran develop both range and warhead improvements to the Shahab-3 missile
under the cover of a civilian space program, AW&ST reports.

If the Iranians are successful with the space launch program, it will have
political and technological ramifications in both the U. S. and Middle East.
"It would move the Iranians from the junior varsity into the big leagues,"
an analyst told the magazine.

And as previous experience with North Korea shows, such a space launch
demonstration can have significant impact in a weapons context. "Something
like that from Iran would certainly have a similar effect in the Middle
East," sources told AW&ST.

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