PRESS RELEASE
PA Demographics
www.pademographics.com
Date: March 29, 2005

ARAB POPULATION IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA:
THE MILLION-AND-A-HALF PERSON GAP

Leaders of the American-based research project on the Arab Population in the
West Bank and Gaza have been invited back to Israel to present their
findings at Israel's National Security Council, the Haifa Technion, Knesset
Committees, the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, etc.

This visit follows presentations made to President Moshe Katzav, National
Security Advisor General (res.) Giora Eiland, the Knesset Foreign Affairs
and Defense Committee, the Knesset Government Operations Committee (Bikoret
Hamedina), State Controller, Central Bureau of Statistics, the Foreign
Affairs Ministry and private meetings with Cabinet Members and Knesset
members.

The study was scrutinized by the leading demographer in Washington, DC, Dr.
Nick Eberstadt. It debuted in Washington at several think tanks including
the American Enterprise Institute (which has posted it on its website -
www.aei.org/event990) and the Heritage Foundation. The study undermines the
assumption that Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza pose a demographic threat to
Israel. The researchers reported that the 2004 Palestinian-Arab population
was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by the
Palestinian Authority (PA). These findings should have a significant impact
on politicians, policy makers and international aid agencies.

The million-and-a-half person gap occurred because the PA numbers are based
on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) projections made in 1997, not on
actual population counts. The PBS used their official 1997 census as a base
population and assumed the population would grow at 4 to 5% a year, one of
the highest growth rates in the world. When the research team reviewed PA
Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, they found
that the PBS' expectations were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004.
"There were dramatically fewer births and lower fertility rates, and instead
of immigration, the Territories experienced a steady net emigration,"
reported project leader Bennett Zimmerman. "When the PBS incorrect
assumptions were applied over many years, the error in population forecast
compounded exponentially."

The research team discovered:

· Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were
substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
· Lower Fertility Rates: Palestinian fertility rates declined from
the mid-90's through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent
with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.
· Net Emigration: Instead of the large immigration originally
projected by the PA, the Territories experienced a steady net emigration
averaging 10,000 a year.
· Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted
in Israel's population survey were included in the PA survey.
· Inclusion of non-residents: Palestinians with IDs living abroad
for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
· Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to
Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.
· Retrospective Alterations of Recorded Birth data.

"The most convincing evidence again came from the Palestinians themselves.
The PA Central Election Commission press release of October 14 2004
acknowledged that 200,000 of Palestinians were living abroad and that the
number of eligible voters living in the Territories was only 1.3 million.
These figures corroborate our lowest population calculations," explained
researcher Roberta Seid, Ph.D.

The researchers conclude that the resident population in January 2004 was
2.42 million: 1.35 million in the West Bank and 1.07 million in Gaza in
January 2004.

"Those who claim Jews are now a minority west of the Jordan River are
wrong," said Yoram Ettinger of the Israeli team. "Since 1967, Jews have
maintained their 60% majority since 1990, the Jewish population has grown by
2.5% a year, only a slight fraction below the growth rate in the West Bank.
"The declining Arab growth rates and the vitality of Jewish growth rates
indicate that this ratio will continue," said Michael Wise, a member of the
American research team.

The Israeli-Arab growth rate of 3.1% was enabled by the influx of 150,000
Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza. Additionally, many observers have
misidentified all non-Jews are "Palestinian Arabs." Many groups, such as
the Druze and non-Jewish immigrants, identify themselves as Israelis, not as
Arabs. Israel is becoming more multicultural not more 'Palestinian Arab.'

The Study can be found the following website locations:
www.pademographics.com & www.aei.org/events/eventID.990/event_detail.asp

The American-based project was led by Bennett Zimmerman, a former Strategy
Consultant with Bain & Company, with historian Dr. Roberta Seid and Dr.
Michael Wise, physicist and expert in mathematic modeling techniques.

Yoram Ettinger, a consultant to members of Israel's Cabinet and Knesset led
the Israel research team with members Brig. Gen. (Ret.) David Shahaf, former
Head of the Civil Administration in the West Bank; Prof. Ezra Sohar who has
published several research papers on demographics in Israel; Dr. David
Passig, an expert in forecasting, Avraham Shvout, who has tracked both
Jewish and Arab population in the West Bank, and Yakov Faitelson, who has
researched Palestinian demography since 1975.