Friday Polls 14.5.99

Aaron Lerner Date: 14 May 1999

+++ Gallup Poll

The following are the results of a survey of a representative sample of 1,100 Adult Israelis carried out by Gallup the evening of 13 May, 1999. Survey error +/- 3.2 percentage points for total results.

If Bashara pulls from the race:
Netanyahu 35.1% Barak 49.9% Mordechai 4.3% Begin 2.1%

If Begin and Bashara both pull from the race:
Netanyahu 36.7% Barak 50.3% Mordechai 4.7%

If only Netanyahu and Barak run:
Netanyahu 37.4% Barak 54.2%



May 13 Netanyahu 35.5% Barak 48.5% Mordechai 4.6% Begin 2.1%
Bashara 2.5%
May 6 Netanyahu 35% Barak 43% Mordechai 7% Begin 3% Bashara 3%
Apr 30 Netanyahu 39% Barak 36% Mordechai 8% Begin 3% Bashara 3%
Apr 21 Netanyahu 36% Barak 34% Mordechai 11% Begin 2% Bashara 4%
Apr 18 Netanyahu 38% Barak 37% Mordechai 10% Begin ?% Bashara ?%
Apr 14 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 15% Begin 3% Bashara 4%
Mar 31 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 12% Begin 4% Bashara 4%

Mar 31, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 13% Begin 4%
Mar 24, 1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 35% Mordechai 12% Begin 5%
Mar 17, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 36% Mordechai 16% Begin 6%
Mar 10, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 16% Begin 8%
Mar 3, 1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 37% Mordechai 17% Begin 4%
Feb 21, 1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 36% Mordechai 17% Begin 5%
Feb 16, 1999 Netanyahu 39% Barak 36% Mordechai 14% Begin 4%
Feb 10, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 19% Begin 4%
Feb 3, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 31% Mordechai 21% Begin 6%
Jan 29, 1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 35% Mordechai 22% Begin 4%
Jan 24, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 20% Begin 7%
Jan 22, 1999 Netanyahu 39% Barak 35% Shahak 14% Begin 6%
Jan 15, 1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 32% Shahak 16% Begin 8%
Jan 10, 1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 32% Shahak 17% Begin 7%
Jan 6, 1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 32% Shahak 20% Begin 8%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 31% Barak 34% Shahak 17% Begin 10%
Week 25 December Netanyahu 27% Barak 30% Shahak 20% Begin 9%

Second Round
May 14 1999 Netanyahu 37.4% Barak 54.2%
May 6 1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 50%
Apr 29 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 48%
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 46%
Apr 18 1999 Netanyahu 44.4% Barak 46.6%
Apr 14 1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 48%
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 45%
Mar 24 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 45%
Mar 17 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 47%
Mar 10 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
Mar 3 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 48%
Feb 24 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 47%
Feb 21 1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 46%
Feb 16 1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 47%
Feb 10 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 48%
Feb 3 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 49%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 48%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 47%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 46%
Jan 15 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 47%
Jan 10 1999 Netanyahu 45% Barak 45%
Jan 6 1999 Netanyahu ? Barak 49% (?=not shown)
Jan 4 1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 51%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 40% Barak 49%
Week 25 December Netanyahu 38% Barak 45%

May 13 1999 NO LONGER ASKED IN POLL
May 6 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 41%
Apr 29 1999 Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 42%
Apr 21 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 42%
Apr 18 1999 Netanyahu 44.3% Mordechai 44.5%
Apr 14 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 43%
Mar 31 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 44%
Mar 24 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 45%
Mar 17 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 52%
Mar 10 1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 46%
Mar 3 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 52%
Feb 24 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 52%
Feb 21 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 51%
Feb 16 1999 Netanyahu 42% Mordechai 50%
Feb 10 1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 52%
Feb 3 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 29 1999 Netanyahu 39% Mordechai 53%
Jan 24 1999 Netanyahu 44% Mordechai 49%
Jan 22 1999 Netanyahu 44% Shahak 47%
Jan 15 1999 Netanyahu 43% Shahak 47%
Jan 10 1999 Netanyahu 39% Shahak 48%
Jan 6 1999 Netanyahu 39% Shahak 53%
Jan 4 1999 Netanyahu 35% Shahak 54%
Week 30 December Netanyahu 36% Shahak 49%

Elections for Knesset: expressed in mandates (total 120)
13.5 7.5 29.4 24.3
28.5 34 33 32 One Israel (Labor)
9.5 9.5 8.5 8 Meretz
8.5 7.5 8.5 8.5 Arabs
4.5 6 8.5 12.5 Central Party
8.5 7 6-7 7 Yisrael Ba'aliyah (Sharansky)
6.5 6 4 0-2 Shinui (Lapid/Poraz)
0-2 0 0 0 Third Way
4 2 2-0 0 Pnina Rosenblum
2.5 0 0 0 Cannabis Party
0-2 0 0 0 Retirees
0-2 0 0 0 Worker's Party (Peretz)
19.5 20.5 23.5 26.5 Likud
4 3.5 3 5.5 United Right (Begin)
5.5 5 6.5 3.5 NRP
11 12 10.5 10 Shas
4 4 4 4 Ultra Orthodox
2.5 3 3 0-2 Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)

Which of the two following phrases do you agree more with?
22% The state is in good shape and we should keep going in the current direction
67% The state is in bad shape and needs change
7% Neither 4% Don't know
[Among those who voted Netanyahu in '96, 42% says situation good 42% bad]

How will you feel the day after the elections if Barak wins?
Very good 38% Good 22% So-so 17%
Bad 5% Very bad 12% Don't know 6%

How will you feel the day after the elections if Netanyahu wins?
Very good 23% Good 16% So-so 14%
Bad 10% Very bad 32% Don't know 5%



Do you considerably agree, somewhat agree or disagree with the following slogans:

Netanyahu: a strong leader for Israel's future:
14 May Agree 44% Disagree 51%
7 May Agree 45% Disagree 49%
30 April Agree 39% Disagree 55%

Only Barak can bring the change
14 May Agree 58% Disagree 36%
7 May Agree 47% Disagree 46%

Between Barak and Netanyahu, who will better handle problems of economics and unemployment?
Netanyahu 26% Barak 52% Same 7%

Between Barak and Netanyahu who will handle security better?
Netanyahu 39% Barak 46% Same 4%

Between Barak and Netanyahu, who will better keep Jerusalem?
Netanyahu 42% Barak 34% Same 12%

Do you support or oppose closing Orient House?
Support 34% Oppose 38% Don't know 28%

Do you believe that Netanyahu's activity in Orient House comes from relevant considerations or electoral considerations?
Relevant 22% Electoral 54% Both to same extent 6%

Who in your opinion will win?
Total population:
13 May Netanyahu 32% Barak 51%
14 April Netanyahu 46% Barak 39%

Voting Netanyahu:
13 May Netanyahu 53% Barak 28%
14 April Netanyahu 84% Barak 3%

Voting Barak:
13 May Netanyahu 10% Barak 77%
14 April Netanyahu 15% Barak 73%

(‘Maariv' 14 May, 1999)

+++ Dahaf Poll

The 23 May 1996 figures for Dahaf are presented in a box in Yediot Aharonot without comment: Peres 50.3% Netanyahu 45.8%

The following are the results of a survey carried out by ‘Dahaf'
the week of May 14, 1999 of a representative sample of 1,100
Israeli adults. Survey error +/- 3 percentage points

1. First round:

May14 Netanyahu 38% Barak 44% Mordechai 6% Begin 3% Bashara 3%
May 7 Netanyahu 37% Barak 42% Mordechai 7% Begin 3% Bashara 4%
Apr.30 Netanyahu 37% Barak 37% Mordechai 10% Begin 3% Bashara 3%
Apr.13 Netanyahu 33% Barak 34% Mordechai 17% Begin 4% Bashara 3%
Mar.29,1999 Netanyahu 36% Barak 33% Mordechai 17% Begin 4%
Mar.24,1999 Netanyahu 38% Barak 36% Mordechai 15% Begin ?%
Mar.17,1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 31% Mordechai 19% Begin ?%
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 33% Barak 31% Mordechai 18% Begin 4%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 30% Mordechai 19% Begin 5%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 37% Barak 30% Mordechai 20% Begin 4%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 35% Barak 28% Mordechai 18% Begin 5%

2. Second round

a. Barak/Netanyahu
May 14,1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 51%
May 7, 1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 50%
Apr.30,1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 50%
Apr.14,1999 Netanyahu 42% Barak 47%
Mar.31,1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 46%
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 46%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 44% Barak 45%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 47% Barak 44%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 43%
Jan.15,1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
Jan.8, 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 45%
Jan.1, 1999 Netanyahu 40% Barak 45%
Dec 25 Netanyahu 42% Barak 44%
Oct 1 Netanyahu 42% Barak 41%
Aug 5 Netanyahu 44% Barak 43%
May 20 Netanyahu 43% Barak 43%
May 6 Netanyahu 40% Barak 40%

b. Mordechai/Netanyahu
May 14,1999 NOT POLLED
May 5,1999 Netanyahu 42% Mordechai 46%
Apr.30,1999 Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 49%
Apr.13,1999 Netanyahu ? Mordechai 49%
Mar.29,1999 Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 48%
Mar.10,1999 Netanyahu 37% Mordechai 50%
Mar. 3,1999 Netanyahu 38% Mordechai 49%
Feb.19,1999 Netanyahu 41% Mordechai 48%
Jan.29,1999 Netanyahu 40% Mordechai 47%
14.5 7.5 29.4 17.3 17.2 29.1
21.1 25----20----20----24---27—Likud [with Tzomet thru March]
27.5 29.5--28----28----30---26--Labor
-5.5--7-----8----13----13---15--Centrist
-4----3-----2-----5-----5----4—National Union
9.5--8.5----7-----8-----8----5--Meretz
-6---6.5----6-----6-----6----4--NRP
10.5-9.5---10----10-----9----8--Shas
-3.5--4-----4-----4-----4----3--Agudat Yisrael/Yahadut Hatorah
-8----8-----8-----5-----5----4--Yisrael B'Aliyah (Sharansky)
-2----2-----2-----2-----2----2--Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)
11----9-----8-----7-----7----7--Arab lists with Hadash
-2----2-----0-----2-----0----0—-Workers (Peretz)
-2----0-----0-----2-----0----0—-Retired
-5----4-----3-----0-----0----0--Shinui
-2----2-----2-----2-----0----0--Penina Rosenblum
++++++++---12-----6-----5---15--Undecided
+++ in the 7.5 and 14.5 survey the undecided were distributed with no indication of methodology.

To what extent are you certain you will vote in the first round?
Certain voting 89% think voting 6%
Certain not voting 2% think not voting 3%

To what extent are you certain you will vote in the second round?
Certain voting 82% think voting 14%
Certain not voting 2% think not voting 2%

Without regards to your own preference, who do you think wil win the second round?
Netanyahu 31% Barak 49%

If after the first round it turns out that the leftist parties and the center together have a solid majority (65 mandates) what government would you prefer?
Left & center 36% National unity 56%

If after the first round it turns out that the right parties and the center together have a solid majority (65 mandates) what government would you prefer?
Right & center 21% National unity 67%

Which party do you think would be better to get the Ministry of the Interior portfolio?
Shas 28% Yisrael B'Aliyah 40%

Should the ultra-orthodox participate in the next government?
Yes 41% No 46%

Who do you think is more appropriate for prime minister?
Netanyahu 34% Barak 50% Same 6% Neither 7%

Who do you think is more appropriate to carry out the permanent agreement with the Palestinians?
Netanyahu 34% Barak 44% Same 5% Neither 6%

Who do you think would handle terror better?
Netanyahu 39% Barak 38% Same 7% Neither 5%

Who do you think will handle economic problems better?
Netanyahu 28% Barak 46% Same 6% Neither 13%

Survey of 400 immigrants from the former USSR ' statistical error +/- 5 percentage points:
First round
May 14 1999 Netanyahu 46% Barak 47% Mordechai 1% Begin 5%
May 7 1999 Netanyahu 41% Barak 36% Mordechai 2% Begin 3%
Apr 16 1999 Netanyahu 52% Barak 21% Mordechai 3% Begin 4%
Second round
May 14,1999 Netanyahu 49% Barak 51%
May 7, 1999 Netanyahu 43% Barak 39%
Apr 16,1999 Netanyahu 58% Barak 26%

(Yediot Aharonot 14 May 1999)

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director
IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-9-7411645
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