Getting help from the outside
By Aluf Benn Haaretz 10 January 2006
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/668212.html

Unlike Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who hated to make decisions and covered
his diplomatic policy plans in a fog of ambiguity, Acting Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert has openly presented his views on the future borders. Two years
ago he had already spoken about a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank
to a demographic line that would maintain a ratio of 80:20 between Jews and
Arabs inside Israel, and about an exit from the outermost Arab neighborhoods
of Jerusalem.

Olmert said that Israel must determine its own fate and not wait for a
Palestinian partner; otherwise it would find itself isolated internationally
and in distress vis-a-vis an Arab majority between the Jordan and the sea.
As we have not heard any change in his opinions, it is possible to predict
that Olmert will try to advance this plan if he wins the elections. It
enjoys support at the top level of Kadima, and in the absence of Sharon, who
said "there will not be a second disengagement," the leadership barrier that
had held it up has been removed.

There will be three obstacles in Olmert's way. First he has to win the
elections. If he is elected, he will have to win over the defense
establishment, from which expressions of regret about the complete
withdrawal from Gaza have been heard (Avi Dichter, Kadima's new security
master mind, has explicitly warned against another unilateral withdrawal).
Olmert lacks his predecessor's military authority, and he will need the best
of his political abilities to put together a coalition in uniform that will
support him. Such support is necessary, because soldiers and police are the
ones who will have to evacuate the West Bank settlers. The third challenge
will be putting together suitable international recompense and convincing
the American administration that a second disengagement will not undermine
the stability of the region.

All of these difficulties share one factor: the chaos that is spreading in
the Palestinian Authority. Even if Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is boasting
of his misery in order to postpone the elections, and to altogether evade
responsibility, it is hard to imagine him suddenly giving himself a good
shake and taking charge. Israel will have to take into account that beyond
the fence there is a vacuum, at least in the short and medium range.

The Palestinian anarchy will help Likud Candidate MK Benjamin Netanyahu. The
Likud campaign ads will undoubtedly show Olmert talking about withdrawal on
the backdrop of shots of rioting Palestinians, accompanied by the question
of whether this is what voters want just outside Kfar Saba. The anarchy will
justify the opponents of the withdrawal in the security establishment, who
will warn against putting the mountain ridge into Palestinian hands. And in
Washington, too, there are likely to be questions as to whether it is right
to pull out and leave a "Hamastan" in the West Bank that would also threaten
Jordan. The easy solution would be to ask for a time out, to say that Israel
is recovering from the double trauma of the exit from Gaza and the loss of
Sharon. This will doubly "Denver boot" Israel in the continuation of the
occupation and the continued life in the settlements. The more daring and
riskier solution would be to announce a withdrawal, to get better guarantees
from America for completing the fence, to leave the settlement blocs in
place and to deny the right of return, to evacuate the settlers and leave.
The window of opportunity for doing this is closing with Sharon's departure.

But there is a third way, which Israel has not yet tried: to demand of the
international community that it see to the territories that are evacuated.
Like in Yugoslavia, Haiti or East Timor. If the Palestinians are incapable
of seeing to their own affairs, and this seems to be the situation, Israel
must not fall into a trap in the West Bank. If the world wants it to
withdraw and end the occupation, it should take upon itself some of the
responsibility and station policing forces in the West Bank.

This will not be easy. After the embroilment in Iraq, there are no
volunteers to deploy in the Middle East. Israel, too, will need to weave a
complicated understanding that the settlement blocs and the Old City of
Jerusalem remain in its hands in the format of a border dispute, until a
partner for negotiations arises. But without a strong international
component, Olmert will find it difficult to carry out the withdrawal that in
his opinion is essential for saving Israel.