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Wednesday, February 15, 2006
The Middle East and Russia's New Game [it isn't about Israel]

[IMRA: The Israeli 48 hour planning horizon that played a key role in the
decision to retreat from the Gaza Strip and now drives Acting PM Olmert's
plans to carry out massive retreats from th West Bank after the elections
(regardless of who or what fills the void) relies critically on the
assumption that the Israelis are the only ones moving on the chessboard.
George Friedman's article serves as an important reminder that not only are
other actors moving pieces on the board - their motives can have absolutely
nothing to do with Israel.]

The Middle East and Russia's New Game
By George Friedman Stratfor 14 February 2006 www.stratfor.com

Last Thursday, Feb. 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited the
leadership of Hamas, the Islamist political party that won the recent
Palestinian elections, to visit Moscow. Hamas quickly accepted, and the
meeting is expected to take place later this month. As with many things
diplomatic, the fact that the invitation was extended and that the meeting
will take place is infinitely more important than what is said during the
meeting.

The invitation has little to do with Hamas and less to do with Israel. On
the whole, anything that strengthens the radical Islamist movement -- which
would certainly include Hamas -- ought to be anathema to Moscow, given the
trouble that the Russians are having in Chechnya. But Russia has bigger
problems: namely, its own role in the world, and the United States. The
invitation is not about Israelis and Palestinians. It is entirely about
U.S.-Russian relations -- and as such, it represents a significant moment.

Backdrop: Russia's Strategy Reversal

On Sunday, Feb. 12, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice repeated what
has now become a constant American theme on Russia, saying, "We are very
concerned, particularly about some of the elements of democratization that
seem to be going in the wrong direction." She went on to note, "I think the
question is open as to where Russia's future development is going." To say
that this theme irritates the Russians vastly understates the situation.

The Russians are, in fact, redefining their geopolitical position. Since the
mid-1980s, the Russians have been of the opinion that abandoning a
geopolitical confrontation with the United States would result in economic
benefits. Put another way, the Russians were prepared to learn from the West
and took their bearings from the West. Western advice and lectures were
expected and, in some ways, even welcomed.

Today, the Russians' view of this strategy is divided. There are those who
think that this arrangement has been a catastrophe for Russia. Then there
are those who would argue that the process has been bad but can be redeemed.
Finally, there is a very small minority who believe that the reforms would
work if they would only go farther and faster. This faction has become
irrelevant in Moscow. The debate is between those who want a complete
reversal in policy -- a large minority -- and those who acknowledge that
massive readjustments must be made on all levels but say the basic idea of
private property and markets should not be completely abandoned.

What is going on, therefore, is a struggle over how far democracy should be
curtailed and to what extent market reforms should be reined in. Overlaying
this is a deep suspicion about the intentions of the United States. The
dominant view is that Rice's demands for increased democratization are an
attempt to weaken Russia further. Those who hold this opinion point to what
they see as the behavior of U.S. intelligence in the areas of the former
Soviet Union that they regard as being properly part of Russia's sphere of
influence. In particular, they view events in Ukraine as evidence that the
United States is committed to causing Russia's implosion, by forcing harmful
reforms within it and then by surrounding Russia with hostile clients of the
United States.

At the V-E Day celebrations in May 2005, U.S. President George W. Bush went
out of his way to push both themes -- first by visiting Latvia and Georgia,
two countries regarded as hostile to Russian interests, and then by publicly
criticizing the failure of the Russians to democratize. Washington made it
clear that it did not intend to relieve the pressure, and the Russians
believed that. As a result, the Russians have been on an offensive, on
multiple levels, to challenge U.S. influence in what they call "the near
abroad." Since Jan. 1, shutting off natural gas flows to Ukraine and Georgia
has been part of this process.

And this brings us to Moscow's invitation to Hamas. There are a number of
reasons to make the invitation -- the single most important of which was
that the United States did not want it to be done. The Russians also reached
out to the Israelis, albeit belatedly: On Saturday, Feb. 12, Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov invited his Israeli counterpart, Shaul Mofaz, to
Russia in a gesture designed to show that the Russians were not tilting
toward Hamas. But between the lines, the Russians wanted to deliver two
messages to Washington.

The first was that Moscow no longer regards itself as a junior partner to
the United States in foreign policy -- and, in fact, doesn't regard itself
as a partner at all. Second, they wanted to make it clear that, just as
Washington is making trouble for Russia in its own periphery, the Russians
are equally capable of making trouble in areas that are of fundamental
interest to the United States. Moscow's message is this: Do not assume that
the failure of Russia to exercise its foreign policy options means that the
Russians have no foreign policy options. Nothing Russia is getting from the
United States in economic relations compensates for the geopolitical harm
the United States is doing to Russia. In other words, this is about 2005,
not 1995. A lot happened in the last decade, most of it not good for the
Russians. The rules are changing.

There is another, more directly strategic reason for the move. Russia has,
and has always had, strategic interests in the Middle East. Given the decay
of Russia's strategic position in the formerly Soviet region, these
interests -- which today include ties to Syria and a potential partnership
with Iran on nuclear enrichment -- have become more important rather than
less. The U.S. penetration of Central Asia, the Baltics and Ukraine cannot
simply be countered in these areas; it is only by challenging the United
States in the Middle East that Moscow can divert American attention from
areas of great interest to the Russians. It is not just a matter of
bandwidth -- meaning that the more trouble the United States has in the
Middle East, the less time it has for the former Soviet Union. It is also
the case that if Russia is to contain the American presence along its
southern frontier, having influence and a presence to the rear of this
region -- in the Middle East -- gives it leverage over some of the former
Soviet republics.

Russia also sees a major diplomatic opening. The United States backed a
political process in the Middle East that has resulted in the election of a
government unacceptable to Washington. The United States does not have the
means for negotiating with Hamas, given the rules of the game that
Washington has defined. In some ways, Israel has expressed a less rigid view
of Hamas than the United States has. The Russians, however, have no problem
talking to Hamas, nor do they have a problem talking to the Israelis. The
Israelis do not want the United States to change its position on Hamas; they
welcome the rigid U.S. position. But they do recognize the need to deal with
Hamas on some level. The Russians represent a useful intermediary. Thus,
Russia could emerge as a critical mediator, at least for a time.

A New Dynamic

Russia's willingness to speak to Hamas creates a new dynamic in the Muslim
world. Syria and Iran are seeking "great power" support against the United
States. Indeed, we could expect an evolution in which the Iraqi government
also would be looking for counterweights to American power. By inviting
Hamas and possibly opening a channel between Hamas and the Israelis, Russia
is positioning itself to become a mediator in other disputes, and to walk
away with relationships that the United States has been unable to manage.

Given the robustness of Russia's arms industry, which is much more vital and
advanced than is generally understood, the Russians could return to their
role as arms provider to the region and patron of governments that are
hostile to the United States. The situation from 1955 to 1990 was a much
more natural geopolitical dynamic than the current situation, in which
Russia is really not present in the region. Russia is a natural player in
the Middle East.

Remember also that Hamas is very close to Saudi Arabia, with which Russia
has an intensely competitive relationship in the energy markets. And then
there is Chechnya. The Russians have long charged that "Wahhabi" influence
was behind the Chechen insurgency as well as insurgencies in Central Asia.
In the Russian mind, "Wahhabi" is practically a code word for "Islamist
militants," including al Qaeda. The Russians also feel that, while the
Americans have forced the Saudis to provide intelligence on al Qaeda, they
have not elicited similar aid on the issue of the Chechens. In other words,
Moscow perceives the United States not only as having neglected to help
Russia on Chechnya, but as actually hindering it.

The Russians badly want to bring the Chechen rebellion under control without
allowing Chechnya to secede. They believe that the Chechen insurgents, and
particularly the internationalized jihadist faction among them, would not
survive if outside support dried up. They believe that the United States is
not displeased to see the Chechen war bleeding Russia, and that Washington
has discouraged Saudi collaboration with Moscow. All things considered, this
is probably true. In reaching out to Hamas, Russia is also reaching out to
the Saudis. The Saudis cannot control the Chechens, but they may have some
means of determining the level of operations the Chechens are able to
maintain.

Conclusion

Of course, many of these things are amorphous, and some are certainly
dubious. Nevertheless, the Hamas affair is of substantial significance, for
several reasons. First, the Russians are clearly signaling that they intend
to get back into the Middle East game. Second, they are aware that this will
make the United States extremely uncomfortable. Third, that is exactly what
they intend to achieve. Creating problems for the United States in strategic
areas is what the Russians think is in their national interest right now.

Washington has been trying to get its arms around the evolution in Moscow
for months now. Given everything on the Bush administration's plate, it is
not clear that there has been time to look deeply at the emerging situation.
At least publicly, the administration continues to maintain the same
attitude toward Moscow that has been evident since Mikhail Gorbachev: The
Russians are the students, and Washington the teacher. Washington is
concerned about the Russian evolution, but at this point has no policy
response.

Washington will have to choose one of two courses. First, it can try to
close the noose on Moscow -- consolidating the U.S. position on Russia's
periphery, blocking Russian counters and encouraging secessionist tendencies
within the Russian Federation itself. In other words, the United States can
go in for the kill and be prepared to live with the consequences of failure.
Alternatively, it can accept that it has reached the high-water mark of U.S.
influence in the Russian sphere, and then manage the return of most of that
region to Moscow's orbit. In turn, it can then deal with Russia's
re-emergence as a potential superpower in a generation or two.

What is not a strong option is what the United States is now doing. Wounding
a bear without killing it is the most dangerous game of them all. Nothing
the United States is doing now will kill the bear. It is, however,
guaranteed to irritate him enormously and convince him that in due course,
he will be killed. There are no good outcomes from this strategy.

In the end, Moscow's invitation to Hamas is intended to be a warning that
Russia can make life increasingly difficult for the United States -- and
that Russia plans to do just that.

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