Poll: Kadima 36-40 Labor 17-20 Likud 14-17 NRP/Nat'l Union 8-10
Aaron Lerner Date: 24 February 2006
#1 Smith Institute poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) for The Jerusalem Post on 23 February , published
in The Jerusalem Post on 24 February
#2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Teleseker for Maariv on 22 February
and published in Maariv on 24 February:
#3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 534 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Geocartography for Israel Radios'
"Its All Talk" program on 22 February as reported on the website
http://bet.iba.org.il/Doc/DOC133046.pdf
#4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis
(including Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Ahronot the week
of 22 February and published in Yediot Ahronot on 24 February 2006
[10% were undecided]
Knesset election vote expressed in mandates[current in brackets]
#1 #2 #3 #4
38.5 40 36.00 39 [00] Kadima
17.0 15 14.00 16 [40] Likud
17.0 20 19.00 19 [22] Labor
00.0 00 00.00 00 [15] Shinui
09.0 09 08.00 10 [11] Shas
08.5 08 09.00 09 [08] Arab parties
04.5 05 05.00 05 [06] Yachad [Meretz]
09.0 10 09.00 08 [07* & 6] National Union & NRP
08.5 08 09.25 09 [07*] Yisrael Beiteinu [Lieberman]
05.5 05 06.00 05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
00.0 00 01.50 00 [00] Green Leaf (legalizing hashish) does not pass minimum
00.0 00 03.50 ** [00] Undecided
Yahadut Hatorah
* National Union & Yisrael Beiteinu together have 7 seats
** 12 seats were "undecided" but Yediot Ahronot simply increased the rest of
the results so they would add up to 120.
It should be noted that the term "undecided" means just that - the
respondent told the pollster "I haven't decided". If instead, the
respondent said "I won't tell you" the respondent is put in the "other"
column. As a result the figures in the above table that so nicely add up to
120 seats are based on the assumption that the considerably sized group of
respondents who either told pollsters "I don't know" or "I won't tell you"
will end up voting the same way that the people who told the pollsters how
they intended to vote.
Smith also asked: Suitable to be prime minister:
Olmert: Yes 46% No 49%
Netanyahu: Yes 36% No 61%
Peretz: Yes 21% No 75%
Teleseker also asked:
Number of Knesset seats for Likud if elections held :
A. Current situation 15
B. Have elections of MKs transferred from Central Committee to members 16
C. Put Silvan Shalom at the head of the Likud 18
If Peretz were to promise Barak a senior government position would this
strengthen or weaken the possibility you would vote for Labor?
Not planning to vote Labor:
Would increase chance vote Labor 16% Decrease 24%
Do intend to vote Labor
Would increase chance vote Labor 37% Decrease 20%
What's the best slogan in the campaign?
11% Choose life with Shas
25% Kadima (forward) Israel with Kadima
27% Fighting terror, vanquishing poverty [Labor]
22% Strong against Hamas (Likud) 22%
Dahaf also asked:
If there were personal elections for the prime minister:
Olmert 34% Netanyahu 25% Peretz 19%
What's the main reason that Netanyahu proposed that the choice of the Likud
Knesset list be moved from the Central Committee to primaries?
Remove corruption 21% Increase personal power 37% Get more votes for Likud
38%
Which party head is the most trustworthy?
Olmert 17% Leiberman 17% Peretz 15% Beilin 12% Netanyahu 8% Elon 6% Ishai 3%
Poraz 2% Leventhal 1%
Asked of those who previously supported Likud and are not planning to vote
for Likud this time:
Who is primarily responsible for the condition of the Likud?
Netanyahu 39% Central committee 34% List 11% Platform 5%
If the Knesset list will be set by primaries would you be inclined to return
to vote Likud?
Yes 30% No 65%
Maagar Mochot for Makor Rishon - published 24 February:
Have the various reports of corruption relating to Olmert and Kadima
influenced your position on the elections?
Yes 15% No 78% Don't know 7%
Are you for or against the proposal of Binyamin Netanyahu according to which
MKs of the Likud are elected in primaries by the members of the Likud and
not by the Likud Central Committee?
For 55% Against 7% Don't know 38%
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA(Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
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