On life and death

By Ari Shavit Haaretz 27 March 2006
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/698844.html

[Appeared in the Hebrew edition on 24 March 2006]

Haim Ramon called. He really didn't like the op-ed in which I severely
criticized the Olmert plan. He was surprised - he thought we were on the
same wavelength. He thought I understood that Yossi Beilin and Benjamin
Netanyahu were wrong. And, of course, he didn't agree with a single word in
the piece. But perhaps it would be right to hold a serious debate on the
pages of Haaretz. Perhaps it would be right to present each arguments, ahead
of the elections, to the voting readers.

We sat across the table from each other and roared at the tops of our lungs.
It's a pleasure to quarrel with Ramon. He's quick and sharp and driven by
instinct. Neither refined, nor always methodical, he has a wild cat's feel
for reality. The man who formulated the concept of the big fence and
predicted the big bang now wholly believes in the big disengagement. He has
no doubt that he is right - not even the slightest shadow of a doubt.

Shavit: "These elections are important because they are about the division
of the land. I want a division of the land. But I hold that Ehud Olmert's
and your unilateral division plan is dangerous. It will lead to the
establishment of an armed and hostile Hamas state that will undercut the
stability of Israel, Jordan and the Middle East. How am I wrong?"

Ramon: "The dangers you point to do exist. But the danger of continuing the
status quo is greater still. We are sitting on a volcanic crater, and we
know exactly when it will erupt. We know that within 5-10 years our time as
a Jewish and democratic state will come to an end. As soon as the
Palestinians become the majority between the sea and the river - within less
than a decade - they will demand one man, one vote, one state. They will ask
why what is good for South Africa is not good for us. This danger is
terrible. We are talking about an end to the Jewish-democratic state. That's
why continued control of the West Bank is the immediate existential threat
that Israel must attend to now. This threat is more dangerous than the
dangers you're talking about.

Shavit: "We both agree that a two-state solution is essential. But I hold
that in the present situation, with Hamas in power, a two-state solution is
also very dangerous. That's why we have to build a supervised and organized
process that will minimize the danger in the new situation. Your plan
doesn't do this. It establishes Hamastan, which will be belligerent and will
not stop at the fence line. Therefore, the two-state solution that you will
create will be unstable. It will inevitably lead to war."

Ramon: "I think there won't be a war. The Palestinians will have something
to lose. Their quality of life will be far better. There will be major
pressure on leadership not to take steps that will turn the clock back and
bring back occupation. True, it is not an eternal situation. It's a phase
ahead of talks about a final-status under more comfortable conditions. I
believe if there is movement, there will be quiet. If there'll be five or
six years of quiet during the convergence, there is a chance of extending
it.

"But let's say there is a war. What kind of war would it be? The Israel
Defense Forces, with all its capability, facing 3,000-4,000 Hamas people
armed with nothing? If the Palestinians pose any kind of threat to me, I
will conquer the West Bank in 24 hours. And how do I know this? I know this
because that's what I did in Operation Defensive Shield. When I had 120
fatalities in a month due to terror, I recaptured the entire area and I
destroyed the Palestinian Authority in a day."

Shavit: "You don't understand the meaning of sovereignty. You don't
understand that when you are faced with a sovereign and legitimate Hamas
state that is a member of the United Nations, its right of self-defense will
be no less important than your right of self-defense. You won't be able to
go into Jenin and Nablus like you do now. And you won't be able to prevent
Hamastan from arming itself. It will have the full right to set up an
anti-aircraft missile system that will paralyze all your air power without a
single shot."

Ramon: "What are you talking about? It's clear to Jordan that if a foreign
Syrian army enters it, I will also enter it. And I maintain deterrence
against countries far stronger than Palestine. And here it's unilateral.
There is no agreement. So I will sit on the Jordan River and I won't let
Palestinians bring in any planes or any missiles or any tanks."

Shavit: "But on what authority will you do that? After all, you are about to
withdraw without an agreement and without any political context. In the
absence of an agreement and in the absence of a political context, there is
no demilitarization. In the absence of an agreement and in the absence of a
political context, there is no legitimate restriction on the sovereignty of
the Hamas state. Your attempt to use your military might to impinge on the
sovereignty of the neighboring state will be considered illegitimate.

"We must withdraw. But we need to be aware of the dangers concealed in the
withdrawal and we must deal with them before withdrawing. We must make sure
there will be solid international recognition of the line to which we
withdraw and of the legitimacy of the State of Israel as a Jewish state. And
we must make sure that alongside the establishment of the Palestinian state,
the demand of return is removed from the international agenda. And we must
make sure the international community recognizes that the West Bank and Gaza
will remain demilitarized."

Ramon: "The difference between me and you is that I think the territories
are a burden and you think they're an asset. That's why you think that when
you give them up you deserve something in exchange. If possible, something
from the Palestinians, and if not, something from the international
community. Now I am in favor. What intelligent person wouldn't be in favor?
And that's why I am set to give a year for negotiations based on the
roadmap. And I am going to try to get the most international support I can.
But I want it to be clear that in the end, I am not prepared to leave my
fate in the hands of the Palestinians or the international community.
Because I have cancer. Ruling the territories is cancer. And therefore I
will not let my enemy decide whether or not to undergo the operation to
remove the cancer. I also won't let my enemy be my surgeon. I stand firm in
my decision to take my fate in my own hands."

Shavit: "My argument is that you see only the danger of the cancer of
occupation. You are ignoring the dangers involved in the process of ending
the occupation. And so the operation you are about to carry out is a field
operation that will end in disaster."

Ramon: "That's absurd. By virtue of my position in the Knesset, I have come
to learn all the secrets of the State of Israel. I am therefore aware of our
awesome powers. I know that we can cope with any military threat. The one
threat that we don't know how to deal with is the threat of the loss of the
Jewish-democratic state. The convergence plan is the only practical answer
to this threat."

Shavit: "But in order to make the withdrawal into a stable two-state
situation, Palestinian society must undergo a positive change that runs
deep. What you are ignoring is that what you see as taking your fate into
your own hands is seen by the Palestinians as defeat. Such a defeat
generates negative, not positive, change. You are ignoring the connection
between the disengagement and the Hamas victory, and you are ignoring the
capability of a mega-disengagement to perpetuate Hamas rule."

Ramon: "I have been waiting for a Palestinian change for 20 years. And I'm
not some Likudnik who has never seen a Palestinian in his life. I sat with
Abu Mazen and with Abu Ala and with [Mohammed] Dahlan. Dahlan is a friend of
mine. And so I'm telling you from experience that they can't give up on the
right of return. And they are not capable of reaching a compromise on
Jerusalem. So there will not be a final-status agreement. Any attempt to
reach a final-status agreement will lead to a thousand more fatalities, like
Camp David. But they are also not ready for an interim agreement. Therefore,
the choice is between the status quo and a unilateral process. To die or to
have surgery.

"More than that: There will be no Palestinian change as long as I am in the
field. Only when I get out and they see the settlements and the roadblocks
disappearing and they won't be living like animals - only then will the
hoped-for change begin to take place. The Palestinian change will not be
realized before the evacuation, only afterward."

Shavit: "There are two diseases here. The Israeli disease is the occupation
and the settlements. The Palestinian disease is the lack of recognition of
Israel and the instability. In order to reach a reasonable situation in
Israel-Palestine, we have to treat both diseases at the same time. We need
two unilateral treatment processes that might, over time, lead to an
agreement. And perhaps what you are doing is treating only the Israeli
disease. You are freeing the Palestinians from all responsibility.

"The house is indeed on fire, but instead of putting out the blaze you are
jumping out of the burning house, into the abyss."

Ramon: "You are Beilin. Ultimately, you are Beilin. Only you're not
comfortable being Beilin, so you're not demanding a peace agreement but
another agreement. But in the end, just like Beilin, you are saying that the
Palestinians are the ones who will determine whether there will be a Jewish
and democratic state here.

"I am not ignoring the Hamas victory. On the contrary. This victory simply
clarifies for me that there is virtually no practical chance of reaching an
agreement. I will try so that Ari Shavit and Yossi Beilin and the settlers
and the world will know that I tried. And maybe I will send you to reach
these agreements. But when you return and say that you have failed, I will
do what I did in Lebanon. Then too, they warned me that I was strengthening
Hezbollah, just as you are warning me [about Hamas]. And then too, they told
me there would be buses in Avivim [a reference to the deadly 1970 attack on
a school bus in Avivim, near the Lebanon border] just as you're telling me
there will be shoulder-fired missiles in the West Bank. But it's quiet on
the northern border. [Hezbollah head Sheikh Hassan] Nasrallah doesn't dare
attack Israel."

Shavit: "In Lebanon, [Ehud] Barak built the invisible wall of international
legitimacy that you are not building in the West Bank. That is exactly the
major mistake you made when you put the big withdrawal card on the table
without getting anything in exchange. Now there is no chance that the world
will fund the NIS 80 billion the evacuation will cost, and there is no
chance it will fully recognize the withdrawal line. This wouldn't have
happened to [Ariel] Sharon. Sharon, would not have been so hasty. Once we
had a war and that was it, then peace and that was it, and now you're
proposing a fence and that's it. It doesn't work like that."

Ramon: "I will tell you about myself. A few months ago, when I had a heart
attack, it took me half an hour to realize I had a problem. That is the most
dangerous thing. People who ignore the fact that they have a problem cause a
disaster for themselves.

"When I listen to you I say: You don't understand that you have a problem.
Like Beilin and Peretz and Netanyahu, you are demanding something in
exchange that you will not receive, for territory that is a burden and not
an asset. And so you too, like Beilin and Peretz and Netanyahu, are placing
your fate in the hands of your enemy. And I am not prepared to do this
anymore. I want to reach the stage where I will not be dependent on anyone.
So I will go to the international community, and I will go to Abu Mazen. But
in the end, I will act in accordance with my existential interest. And my
existential interest requires me to free myself of this 90 percent of the
West Bank that endangers me. Because unlike you, I understand that I have
cancer. And I am not prepared to say that this cancerous growth is a gem.

So you can tell me that I don't have an operating room here and I don't have
anesthesia and I don't have a sterile scalpel. But I am telling you that if
I don't do the surgery I won't live. That's why I am getting the operation
done. I am cutting. Because if I wait until all your demands are fulfilled,
I will simply die."