NEC "Gaza Monitor" Bulletin # 4

November 2007 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
Please contact: Jamil Rabah
NEC HSBC Building, 3rd floor RAMALLAH
Tel: 02-2961436 Fax: 02-2963114 i
nfo@neareastconsulting.com
www.neareastconsulting.com

This fourth issue is based on a phone survey of 391 randomly selected
Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who are over the age of 18. The survey was
conducted between 12-14 November, immediately after the rally.

The confidence level is 95% with a +/-4.8% margin of error.

MAIN FINDINGS

On the feeling of security and concern:

83% of Gazans believe that the general situation in the Strip has
deteriorated since the Hamas take-over. (Hamas supporters, 39% vs. Fateh
supporters, 93%)

Since the Hamas effective take-over of control in the Gaza Strip, 32% of
Gazans feel more secure. (Hamas supporters, 95% vs. Fateh supporters, 8%)

67% of Gazans feel insecure with respect to themselves, their family, and
their property. (Hamas supporters, 21% vs. Fateh supporters, 87%)

The internal power struggle (41%) is the main issue of concern among Gazans.
Respectively 24% of Gazans are mainly concerned by either the economic
hardship of their household or by the absence of security for themselves and
their family.

56% of Gazans believe that since Hamas took power in the Gaza Strip, they
are unable to voice their opinion freely. (Hamas supporters, 15% vs. Fateh
supporters, 74%)

On factional trust, trust in leadership, and the legacy of the late Yasser
Arafat: Factional trust in Strip: Fateh (46%), Hamas (17%), Islamic Jihad
(4%), PFLP (2%), other factions (5%), no faction (26%). 83% of Gazans
believe that Fateh's position has worsened since Arafat's death. (Hamas
supporters, 95% vs. Fateh supporters, 73%)

91% of Gazans believe that the political situation has deteriorated since
Arafat's death. (Hamas supporters, 74% vs. Fateh supporters, 97%)

92% believe that the current split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
would not have happened if Arafat remained alive. (Hamas supporters, 89% vs.
Fateh supporters, 95%)

A mere 6% feel that Arafat has failed the Palestinians and has not succeeded
in maintaining their rights. (Hamas supporters, 19% vs. Fateh supporters,
4%)

37% of Gazans see Marwan Barghouti as the leader who can fill the gap after
the death of Arafat.

78% of Gazans hold the view that the Fateh strategy is the best for
maximizing Palestinian national interest. (Hamas supporters, 8% vs. Fateh
supporters, 100%)

72% of Gazans most trust Abu Mazen vs. 28% who most trust Ismael Hanieh.

41% of Gazans have high confidence in Salaam Fayyad (Hamas supporters, 0%
vs. Fateh supporters, 66%), 28% have moderate confidence in him (Hamas
supporters, 14% vs. Fateh supporters, 30%), while 31% have low confidence in
the prime minister. (Hamas supporters, 86% vs. Fateh supporters, 5%)

61% of Gazans consider the caretaker government their legitimate government
(Hamas supporters, 0% vs. Fateh supporters, 92%), 25% consider the Hamas-led
Hanieh government to be the legitimate one (Hamas supporters, 93% vs. Fateh
supporters, 4%), while 14% believe neither are legitimate. (Hamas
supporters, 7% vs. Fateh supporters, 4%)

On the economy, poverty, and shortages:

94% of Gazans believe that the economy has worsened since Hamas took control
of the Gaza Strip. (Hamas supporters, 75% vs. Fateh supporters, 99%)

The income poverty rate in the Gaza Strip reaches 69%, of which 40% are
extremely poor.

86% of the respondents reported that the level of problems in obtaining
materials for business has increased since the Hamas takeover of the Gaza
Strip. (Hamas supporters, 75% vs. Fateh supporters, 88%)

70% of Gazan households suffer from food shortages; 82% suffer from
shortages in medication.

87% of Gazans report that the availability of necessary commodities for the
household has become more difficult since Hamas took effective control of
the Gaza Strip.

An early election Monitor?

77% support early PLC elections (Hamas supporters, 23% vs. Fateh supporters,
99%); 74% support early presidential elections Hamas supporters, 39% vs.
Fateh supporters, 88%).

If PLC elections were to be held next week, 54% of Gazans would vote for
Fateh, 15% would vote for Hamas, and 13% would vote for other Palestinian
factions. 18% would not participate in these elections (Hamas supporters,
23% vs. Fateh supporters, 0%).

If presidential elections were to be held next week, 55% of Gazans would
vote for a Fateh candidate, 15% would vote for a Hamas candidate, and 13%
would vote for a candidate of one of the other Palestinian factions. 18%
would not participate in these elections. (Hamas supporters, 21% vs. Fateh
supporters, 0%)

74% of Gazans support a peace settlement with Israel. (Hamas supporters, 33%
vs. Fateh supporters, 91%) At the same time, however, 31% of Gazans believe
that Hamas should maintain its position on the elimination of Israel. (Hamas
supporters, 82% vs. Fateh supporters, 9%)

68% support the Palestinian participation in the international peace
conference (Hamas supporters, 23% vs. Fateh supporters, 91%). vote for other
Palestinian factions. 18% would not participate in these elections (Hamas
supporters, 23% vs. Fateh supporters, 0%).

If presidential elections were to be held next week, 55% of Gazans would
vote for a Fateh candidate, 15% would vote for a Hamas candidate, and 13%
would vote for a candidate of one of the other Palestinian factions. 18%
would not participate in these elections. (Hamas supporters, 21% vs. Fateh
supporters, 0%)

Peace and the Peace Conference:

74% of Gazans support a peace settlement with Israel. (Hamas supporters, 33%
vs. Fateh supporters, 91%) At the same time,

57% believe the time is right to hold such a conference, but only 45%
believe that the conference will succeed in the achievement of progress in
the peace process reaching a final solution to the Palestinian problem. 54%
of Gazans believe that Israel is the greatest beneficiary of holding a peace
conference. 55% believe that that Jerusalem is the final status issue that
should be resolved as soon as possible.

81% support any agreement reached in Annapolis to a referendum. Hamas
supporters, 62% vs. Fateh supporters, 87%)

53% of Gazans support the notion of 'two states for two people' as a
potential basis for a resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

63% consider 'the return of refugees to their original place of residence'
as the solution to the Palestinian refugee issue.

As for the solution to the final status issue of Jerusalem, 32% of Gazans
would support a resolution that entails that East Jerusalem would be for
Palestine, while West Jerusalem would be for Israel. Jerusalem as an
international capital is acceptable to another 30% of Gazans, while 25% want
Jerusalem to be exclusively the capital of a future Palestinian state. The
remaining 13% of Gazans would support a solution to the issue of Jerusalem
if it becomes a unified capital for both Palestine and Israel.