ANALYSIS / Israeli deterrence against Hamas is weakening
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff Haaretz Last update - 02:19 08/12/2008
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1044413.html

Three numbers are at the heart of Israel's decision-making process over the
Gaza Strip: 20, 40 and 70. Twenty-plus kilometers is the maximum range of
Hamas' rockets in the Strip (which can hit Sderot, Ashkelon, Netivot and
Kiryat Gat); 40 kilometers is the range they will be able to reach in the
coming months, if missile production is not halted (Ofakim, Kiryat Malachi,
Ashdod, Be'er Sheva and Yavneh will be at risk of attack); 70 kilometers is
the range the Palestinians are striving to reach. At that point, Jerusalem,
Tel Aviv and the Dan Region would be within range of Palestinian rockets.

Most Israeli decision makers assume the Gaza Strip will erupt sooner or
later. The debate concerns whether the dozens of rockets that have been
fired at the Negev in the last few weeks justifies immediate offensive
action by the Israel Defense Forces. Those in favor are calling for a
preemptive strike against Hamas.

Not surprisingly, the idea of renewed escalation has been raised in the
election campaigns. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has called for an end to
restraint; Vice Premier Haim Ramon contends that the Hamas government in
Gaza must be brought down, and that this can happen even without a major
military operation. Defense Minister Ehud Barak preaches "good judgment and
responsibility."

As for Ramon's apparent hint at the possibility of assassinating Hamas
leaders, the question is who will take over? Wouldn't anarchy result, making
a difficult target for Israeli strikes?

Hamas seems to be changing its policies. Hamas claims (and Israel denies)
that the cease-fire agreement, which will end on December 19, must either
expand to the West Bank or be be cancelled. Hamas knows that the chances
this demand will be met are nil. However, by allowing the smaller factions
to fire rockets, it seeks to attain an extension on the cease-fire from a
position of strength. For example, to significantly reduce the economic
siege on the Gaza Strip.

Hamas therefore is considering ratcheting up hostilities ahead of December
19, possibly including massive rocket fire, and even an attempted
"strategic" terror attack like the abduction of a soldier. Hamas has chosen
controlled escalation to counter criticism by groups like Islamic Jihad and
local Al-Qaida affiliates. But the siege has taken its toll. Two-thirds of
the population live on international food aid.

The Id al-Adha holiday, which begins today, will not be particularly festive
in Gaza. When comparing the situation in the West Bank to that in Gaza,
Hamas does not come out looking favorable. Israel's permission for Israeli
Arabs to visit the West Bank for the holiday will be good for businesses,
and 230 prisoners are slated to be released from Israeli jails. Hamas needs
an achievement to counter Fatah, like a cease-fire on favorable terms.

Some of the IDF brass disagree with Barak's stance that there are two
possibilities - complete quiet or all-out war. Some want more freedom to
take offensive action. Even those who object, as we do, to major action must
concede that Israeli deterrence against Hamas is weakening.