Comment: Breaking News: 100% Success - Egypt to Report Absolutely No
Smuggling To Gaza

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 17 January 2009

Break out the champagne and prepare for the elections.

Considering that up to today Egyptian officials insist that absolutely no
arms have ever been smuggled from Egypt to the Gaza Strip, the
Olmert-Livni-Barak team can be certain that Egypt will certify that no
weapons smuggling takes place since the start of the ceasefire.

Will Hamas cooperate?

"Cooperation" doesn't mean not smuggling.

"Cooperation" means not bragging about it - at least until after the Knesset
elections.

And what if photographs of arms smuggling are published?

The Olmert-Livni-Barak team can claim that they are old photos.

And what if Hamas has a press conference showing the arms?

The Olmert-Livni-Barak team can claim that they were smuggled in before the
ceasefire.

And what if there are rocket attacks?

The Olmert-Livni-Barak team will engage in a "tit-for-tat" approach,
according to which each attack is responded to on an individual basis rather
than a renewal of the Israeli operation in Gaza.

And what if there are many rocket attacks?

This depends on the "intelligence reports" of "Generals" Mina Tzemach
(Dahaf) Yitzchak Katz (Maagar Mohot Survey Institute) and the other
pollsters.

If polls show that Kadima and Labor are plunging as a result of the
situation then the ceasefire may be dropped.

On the other hand, if Kadima leads in the polls over Likud, one can expect
very learned explanations from both officials as well as media commentators
and reporters as to why it serves Israel's strategic interests to
indefinitely continue the arrangement.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il