09 March 2009
PRESS RELEASE
Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (31)
The popularity of Abbas and Fayyad declines sharply while the popularity of
Haniyeh and Hamas increases significantly; but Fateh can still defeat Hamas
and the overwhelming majority believes Palestinians after the war on Gaza
are worse off than before the war

5-7 March 2009
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
between 5 and 7 March 2009. The poll was conducted several weeks after the
Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip. The poll period witnessed return of
Palestinian factions to reconciliation talks sponsored by Egypt. Total size
of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly
selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. This press release covers
domestic Palestinian issues; issues related to the peace process and
Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate joint
Palestinian-Israeli press release. For further details, contact PSR
director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email
pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the first quarter of 2009 indicate a significant increase in the
popularity of Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas and decease in the popularity of
president Mahmud Abbas and Fateh. They also indicate a significant decline
in the status and legitimacy of Salam Fayyad. Despite these findings, Fateh's
popularity remains higher than that of Hamas. The two most important factors
shaping public attitudes regarding these issues seem to be the Israeli
offensive against Gaza, particularly the performance of Abbas and the
government of Fayyad during the war, and public perceptions of the end of
Abbas's term in office and hence the loss of legitimacy suffered by the
Fayyad's government.

If new presidential elections were held today and the two candidates were
Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmud Abbas, the former receives 47% of the vote and the
later 45%. Three months ago, Abbas received 48% and Haniyeh 38%. In the Gaza
Strip Abbas wins with 50% of the vote compared to 44% for Haniyeh.
But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former
wins with 61% of the vote compared to 34% for Haniyeh. Three months ago,
Barghouti received 59% and Haniyeh 32%.

Popularity of Hamas increases from 28% in our December 2008 poll to 33% in
this poll while the popularity of Fateh drops from 42% to 40% during the
same period. The gap between Fateh and Hamas reaches 12 percentage points in
favor of Fateh in the Gaza Strip but reaches only 3 percentage points in the
West Bank, also in favor of Fateh.

Decline in the popularity of Abbas and Fateh reflects a decline in the
percentage of popular satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas
from 46% three
months ago to 40% in this poll. Moreover, positive evaluation of the
performance of Salam Fayyad's government declines from 34% to 32% during the
same period while positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh's
government increases significantly from 36% to 43%.

Moreover, it seems that public perception of the ending of Abbas's term in
office is leading 27% to believe that the legitimate president today is the
Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, and 24% to believe that
there is no legitimate president today, while only 39% believe that the
legitimate president today is Abbas.
In the competition over legitimacy between the governments of Haniyeh and
Fayyad, 35% say Haniyeh's government is the legitimate one while only 24%
say Fayyad's is the legitimate one. Thee months ago, 28% said Haniyeh's
government was the legitimate one and 30% said Fayyad's government was the
legitimate one.

Despite the visible increase in the popularity of Hamas and Haniyeh, the
overwhelming majority (71%) says that given the outcome of the Israeli war
on Gaza, conditions of the Palestinians today are worse off than they were
before the war, while only 11% say conditions today are better off than they
were before the war. 17% say conditions have not changed. In the Gaza Strip,
the percentage of those who believe that Palestinians are worse off today
reaches 79%.

Moreover, despite the decline in the popularity and status of Abbas and
Fayyad, 25% say conditions in the West Bank are good while only 7% say
conditions in the Gaza Strip are good.

Similarly, Hamas's call for the establishment of a new representative body
that can serve as an umbrella for the resistance groups receives the support
of only one
third of the Palestinians while 57% say that the PLO should be maintained.

The largest percentage (46%) believe that the most important priority for
Palestinians today should be the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip while 28% say it should be the return to quite and the opening of Gaza
crossings and 25% say the top priority should be the reconstruction in the
Gaza Strip. In the Gaza Strip, belief that Gaza reconstruction should be
the top priority stand at 21% only compared to 27% in the West Bank.

Finally, Fateh's greater popularity compared to Hamas's reflects public
perceptions regarding possible implications of election outcome on two major
issues that seem to influence electoral behavior more than any other issue
as we saw in our last poll in December. These two issues are the ending of
siege and blockade and the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Current findings indicate the following:
- if Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 63% of the
public believe that such an outcome would lead to the tightening of the
siege and boycott while an additional 19% say current conditions of boycott
would remain the same and only 12% say a Hamas electoral victory would lead
to the lifting of the siege and boycott. By contrast, if Fateh wins new
presidential and legislative elections, only 11% say that such outcome would
lead to the tightening of the siege and boycott and an additional 24% say
current conditions would remain the same, but the majority (61%) says a
Fateh electoral victory would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott.
It is worth noting that the belief that a Fateh electoral victory would lead
to the lifting of the siege increases significantly in the Gaza Strip
reaching 76% and decreases to 52% in the West Bank.

- Similarly, if Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 47%
of the public believe that such an outcome would lead to the consolidation
of the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and an additional 23%
say current conditions would remain the same but only 24% say a Hamas
victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip unity. By
contrast, if Fateh wins new presidential and legislative elections only 31%
say that such an outcome would lead to the consolidation of the split
between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and an additional 26% say current
conditions would remain the same, but 37% say such a Fateh electoral victory
would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip unity. It is worth
noting that the belief that a Hamas electoral victory lead to the
consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip split increases considerably in the
Gaza Strip compared to the West Bank (56% compared to 42%) while the belief
that a Fateh electoral victory would lead to the consolidation of West
Bank-Gaza Strip unity increases significantly in the Gaza Strip reaching
47%% and decreases to 31% in the West Bank.
_______________________________________________________________________
This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer
Stiftung in Ramallah
End of press release