[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

"Dr. Aaron Lerner, director of the Independent Media Review and Analysis
organization, which commissioned the poll, said it is best to think of
autonomy as a starting point to eventual sovereignty, although how eventual
that sovereignty might be is uncertain." - my meaning was that the
conditions that could make sovereignty possible are no less likely than
Dumbo being able to fly.

"However, respondents were not asked their opinion of the demilitarized
Palestinian state envisioned by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu." - As I
told the reporter, the conditions PM Netanyahu requires rule out a sovereign
state if they are to be durable conditions. And given that PM Netanyahu has
been careful never to use the words "sovereign" or "independent" to describe
this "state" it would appear that he is actually referring to an "autonomous
state" rather than a "sovereign state".

"Moshe Maoz, professor of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies at the Hebrew
University, said..."For conflict resolution there needs to be some faith in
sovereignty"
Thanks to Professor Maoz for reminding us that for sovereign Palestinian
state advocates this is a dogmatic/faith-based rather than logic-based
position.]

Poll: Israelis wary of PA leadership
ZACK COLMAN and Jerusalem Post staff , THE JERUSALEM POST Jul. 24, 2009
www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1248277878549&pagename=JPArticle%2FShowFull

A new poll, conducted during a week of heightened tensions between Israel
and the US over settlement construction and stymied diplomatic negotiations,
reveals in stark terms just how wary Israeli Jews are regarding the
Palestinian leadership, and how distrustful they are about international
assurances for the country's long-term security.
The poll, carried out by the Maagar Mohot Survey Institute and made
available to The Jerusalem Post on Thursday, showed that 64 percent of
Israeli Jews believe Israel would not be able to trust international pledges
for its security in return for settlement withdrawals in the West Bank,
while only 9% said it would.

The survey also found that a whopping 71% were adamant the government must
insist that the Palestinians freeze all West Bank construction if a similar
freeze were forced upon Israel, in order to prevent problematic "new facts
on the ground." Only 20% said the government should not make that demand.

Especially prominent were the figures revealing the degree of suspicion
toward the Palestinian Authority leadership, and in particular its president
Mahmoud Abbas.

When asked what they believe the ultimate intention of Abbas and other
leaders is when striving for a Palestinian state, 62% said the PA leaders
want to establish a state instead of Israel, while only 27 said Palestinian
leaders want the two nations to live side-by-side.

In total, 58% said they believe any pledge from Abbas would not bind future
Palestinian leaders, while 18% gave it a "so-so" chance, and only 12%
thought it would bind them.

The survey also pointed to widespread worry over the "demographic problem,"
referring to the view of many experts that the Arab population will outgrow
the Jewish one in the not-distant future.

Some 72% of respondents said the issue should be an important factor for
Israeli leaders in dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Only 17 it
should be "marginal."

When asked what solution to the conflict would best serve Israel's
interests, 70% chose "autonomy," in which the Palestinians rule over their
day-to-day lives, with their borders and air space under Israel's control.
Only 15% expressed support for a sovereign Palestinian state.

However, respondents were not asked their opinion of the demilitarized
Palestinian state envisioned by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Furthermore, 48% said they think it is more important to build new Jewish
communities in the Galilee and the Negev, while only 8% think the emphasis
should be placed on Judea and Samaria, and 37% think both are equally
important.

Moshe Maoz, professor of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies at the Hebrew
University, said the idea of autonomy as a viable solution is "a joke" to
Palestinians. Whether Israelis want to hear it or not, autonomy wouldn't
seem too different from the current situation, he said.

"No, never. By no means," Maoz said of Palestinians accepting autonomy.
"They want independence. They have been under Israeli occupation for 40
years and all they want is autonomy? It's in the mind of Israelis that they
know what is best for Arabs."

"For conflict resolution there needs to be some faith in sovereignty and not
just some sort of autonomy," he said, noting that the international
community has already committed to a two-state solution - as, indeed, has
Netanyahu.

David Newman, professor in the Department of Politics & Government at
Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, said the results of the poll could be
misleading because of unfamiliarity with the exact definitions of
"sovereignty" and "autonomy."

He said poll questions could be asked in various ways and yield diverse
results.

Some experts said Palestinian social, political and economic conditions must
improve before sovereignty can be seriously discussed.

"The main issue is what is the nature of this country, can they control
themselves, and the relationship between the groups in there," said Yohanan
Tzoreff, an expert in Palestinian affairs. "Then you can talk about the
ability of the country, what kind of security forces it can get and what's
the nature of the forces."

Dr. Aaron Lerner, director of the Independent Media Review and Analysis
organization, which commissioned the poll, said it is best to think of
autonomy as a starting point to eventual sovereignty, although how eventual
that sovereignty might be is uncertain. If Palestinians are able to prove
they can operate society in a peaceful manner, a future sovereign state
could be possible, he said.

Establishing effective Palestinian police forces, which would be allowed in
autonomy, would express the efforts being made to stabilize the area, Lerner
said.

The poll was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday this week, among a
representative sample of 526 adult Israeli Jews, with a survey error of +/-
4.5 percentage points.