Excerpts: 25 Canadian members of STL may be under Hizbollah reprisals
threat. Turkey bombs Kurdish (PKK) in Iraq. Syrian Coalition against Assad
formed. Israel/Egypt relations August 19, 2011

+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 19 Aug.’11:”Canada fears Hizbollah reprisals”,
Agence France Presse

SUBJECT: 25 Canadian members of STL may be under Hizbollah reprisals threat

QUOTE: Canada’s security service identified possible Hizbollah reprisals
over Hariri murder indictments”

FULL TEXT:MONTREAL (AFP) - Canada's security service identified possible
Hizbollah reprisals over Hariri murder indictments as a national security
threat, said a report Thursday[18 Aug.]. A classified document cited by the
Montreal French-language daily La Presse, titled "Special Tribunal for
Lebanon: does Hizbollah have recourse for violence in 2011?" outlines the
concerns of Canada's Integrated Threat Assessment Centre. The UN-backed
Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigating the 2005 murder of former
Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri indicted Salim Ayyash, 47, Mustafa
Badreddine, 50, Hussein Anaissi, 37 and Assad Sabra, 34, for the 14 February
2005 suicide car bomb attack in Beirut that killed Hariri and 22 others. All
four are members of Hizbollah, which is now a key player in Lebanon's
coalition government and has refused to allow the arrest of the four
suspects. The STL prosecutor in the case, Daniel Bellemare, is Canadian. Two
dozen of his compatriots also work for the tribunal.

+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 19 Aug.’11:”Turkish military attacks PKK rebels in
Iraq”, Reuters

SUBJECT: Turkey bombs Kurdish (PKK) in Iraq

QUOTE:”PKK separatists use the mountains of northern Iraq as a sanctuary
from which to launch attacks in southeast Turkey”;

“the PKK is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the United
States and European Union.”

BACKGROUNDER:

FULL TEXT:ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey launched a heavy air and artillery
assault on Kurdish guerrilla targets in northern Iraq overnight after a
declaration by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan that he had lost patience with
separatists fighting in southeastern Turkey.

Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) separatists use the mountains of northern Iraq
as sanctuary from which to launch attacks in southeast Turkey. The raids,
the first by Turkey in the area since July 2010, responded to a surge in
rebel action in recent months and an ambush on Wednesday that killed nine
servicemen.

The Turkish general staff said artillery hit 168 targets in the region
overnight before warplanes pounded 60 positions in two waves. Camps housing
the PKK's commanders were among those targeted, security sources said.

"Our patience has finally run out. Those who do not distance themselves from
terrorism will pay the price," Erdogan said on Wednesday on the sidelines of
a conference in Istanbul.

His comments and subsequent major air operation indicate a return to a
hardline stance in the 27-year-old fight against the rebels and an end to
clandestine talks between the state and jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.

After a clear victory in June's parliamentary election, Erdogan vowed to
press ahead with reforms addressing the 12-million-strong Kurdish minority's
grievances. A wave of PKK attacks has brought an abrupt change of tone and
heightened prospects of intensified conflict.

As well as continuing the air assaults, the armed forces could launch a
ground incursion against the militants in northern Iraq, as they have in the
past. Further legal action could also be taken against Kurdish politicians,
currently boycotting parliament and accused of close links to the PKK.

Some commentators backed the stronger response but there was also concern
about its consequences. The militants could in turn strike back by staging
urban attacks.

"Stronger retaliation against violence is on the agenda, but it's a method
that has been tried and failed before," said Can Dundar, a columnist with
the liberal daily Milliyet.

"Democratising Turkey, winning over people in the region through
constitutional rights, paving the way from the mountain to the plain was the
difficult but the right policy," he said.

The general staff said in a statement the strikes had centred on Qandil
Mountain, Hakurk, Avasin-Basyan, Zap and Metina regions. All planes had
returned safely to their bases.

It said operations would continue until the PKK was "rendered ineffective".

In the second air raid, six F-16 jets took off from a base in the
southeastern city of Diyarbakir. The targets included anti-aircraft defences
and rebel shelters in the region. Around 30 planes took part in the entire
operation, the sources said.

More than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict since the PKK took
up arms for Kurdish self-rule in 1984.

‘Decisive fight against terrorism’

Turkey's National Security Council, chaired by President Abdullah Gul,
issued a written statement after a regular meeting on Thursday[18 Aug.],
saying it would adopt a "more effective and decisive fight in the fight
against terrorism", local media reported. It did not elaborate on what those
measures would be.

The air operation drew condemnation from the speaker of parliament in
northern Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

"This is a clear violation of Iraq's sovereignty," said speaker Kamal
Kirkuki. "We strongly condemn the shelling by Turkey and any other party on
Iraqi soil."

It was not clear what damage the operation had caused but Dozdar Hamo, a PKK
spokesman, told Reuters in Iraq the bombing was intense and occurred near
three Kurdish villages.

"There were no casualties among the PKK. One PKK checkpoint was targeted, no
one was hurt," he said on Thursday[18 Aug.]. Erbil province governor Nawzad
Hadi said he had no information on casualties and only one house was damaged
in the province.

Turkey and Iran have often skirmished with Kurdish rebels in that region.
Last month Iranian shelling of the area forced hundreds to flee their homes
during clashes with the PJAK, an Iranian offshoot of the PKK. There were no
indications of Iranian involvement in the latest operation.

On Wednesday[17 Aug.], the PKK attacked a military convoy at Cukurca in
southeast Turkey's Hakkari province. The general staff said eight soldiers
and one member of the state-backed village guard militia were killed.
Fifteen troops were wounded.

Last month[July ‘11], the PKK's Ocalan sent word through his lawyers that he
had agreed with Turkish officials to set up a "peace council" aimed at
ending the conflict. But the mood turned sour after the PKK subsequently
killed 13 troops, the highest death toll for Turkish troops since the PKK
ended a ceasefire in February.

State talks with Ocalan ended in late July and since then his lawyers have
been unable to visit him in his island prison near Istanbul. This week a
court banned four lawyers from representing him for a year.

The PKK is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the
European Union.

Thursday's National Security Council meeting follows a period of upheaval in
the armed forces. Four new commanders were appointed this month to replace
those who resigned in protest at the jailing of hundreds of their colleagues
in connection with anti-government conspiracies.

+++SOURCE: Naharnet(Lebanon) 19 Aug.’11:”Syrian Coalition against Assad
Formed”, Agence France Presse

SUBJECT: Syrian Coalition against Assad formed

QUOTES: “More than 40 Syrian ‘revolution blocs’ have forged a
coalition(Syrian Revolution General Commission (SRGC) )to unite their
efforts agains the regime of Bashar Assad”

FULL TEXT:More than 40 Syrian "revolution blocs" have forged a coalition to
unite their efforts against the regime of Bashar Assad, according to a
statement received Friday[19 Aug.] by Agence France Presse.

The so-called Syrian Revolution General Commission (SRGC) said the coalition
was formed due to "the dire need to unite the field, media and political
efforts" of the pro-democracy movement launched in mid-March.

Forty-four groups signed up to join the SRGC as part of "merging all visions
of all revolutionaries from all coalitions and coordinators mutually
focusing primarily on toppling the oppressive and abusive regime."

The long-term aim of the coalition is also to build "a democratic and civil
state of institutions that grants freedom, equality, dignity and respect of
human rights to all citizens," said the statement.

"We announce today the establishment of (the) 'Syrian Revolution General
Commission', the result of merging all the signatory Syrian Revolution blocs
both inside and outside Syria and those who are invited to join as well in
order to have through this commission a representation of the
revolutionaries all over our beloved Syria," it said.

The group paid tribute to the "blood of the thousands of fallen heroes" and
also praised "the sacrifices of tens of thousands of prisoners of opinion
who were tortured, displaced and persecuted" by the Assad regime.

"We hereby renew our vow to all of them that we shall not betray the pact we
sealed together not deviate from the path they walked through and sacrificed
for," said the English-language statement.

The coalition urged all groups involved in the pro-democracy movement to
close ranks and join them "to achieve the goals of the revolution and bring
out its voice to all corners of the world."

Those who signed the statement include protests committees from across
Syria, including flashpoint cities and towns, as well as The Syrian
Revolution 2011 Facebook page, one of the drivers of the protests.

+++SOURCE AHRAMONLINE via Egypt Daily News 19 Aug.’11:”For Egypt and Israel
it looks to be business as usual” by Dina Ezzat

SUBJECT: Israel/Egypt relations

QUOTE :”expected tension in relations between the two countries has not been
forthcoming”

FULL TEXT:With the Egyptian-Israeli gas deal under fire in court and
outside, and as Egypt raises it military presence in Sinai, diplomats say
the expected tension in relations between the two countries has not been
forthcoming

Six months after the 25 January Revolution, not much has changed in the
relations between Egypt and Israel, according to the assessments of
concerned Egyptian officials and some foreign diplomats in Egypt.

"It is true that there has been no high-profile exchange of visits but this
is not peculiar in the context of Egyptian-Israeli relations, and this is
not to say that all visits has been suspended; there are still some middle
and lower level visits that are being conducted," said an Egyptian official
who asked to be anonymous.

Economic cooperation and security cooperation, the main crux of the
Egyptian-Israeli relations during the close to three decades of ousted
President Hosni Mubarak are proceeding on with no major problems.

An exception, however, is the natural gas exports from Egypt to Israel,
which has been the most controversial aspect one of the bilateral
cooperation between the two neighbouring countries. "There has been cut offs
due to the attacks on the pipelines several times since the beginning of the
revolution and it is true that the imports were never fully resumed," said
another official source. H added, however, that this is "mostly due to
technical reasons and has nothing to do with the public debate over the
prices of natural gas imports to Israel".

The issue of Egypt exports of natural gas to Israel has been subject to
fierce criticism during the last years of the Mubarak rule. It was subject
to an opposing public campaign and to a court case that demanded the
suspension of the exports. Now, Mubarak himself is being tried on charges of
corruption in this particular gas exports deal.

However, Egyptian officials and Cairo-based Western diplomats say that
"there is a commitment on the side of Egypt to keep the exports going".

Egypt, according to the same sources, has decided – some say at least for
now – to put off a request to significantly increase the prices of the gas
exports. "The Israeli side had agreed to a symbolic increase in principle
but said that it would seek international arbitration against any attempt to
significantly increase the price agreed upon in the contract," said one
Cairo-based foreign diplomat.

And, according to a concerned Egyptian official, "Cairo realizes that the
contract is written in a way that is in favour of the Israeli side and is
trying to see how to attend to this matter away from arbitration". Overall,
the same official added, this matter is not "causing a crisis in relations".

A Sinai-based security source told Ahram Online that "firm security measure
have been stepped up to avoid the recurrence of attacks on the pipelines".

Meanwhile, Western diplomats in Cairo concerned with monitoring the
bilateral Egyptian-Israeli relationship say they have not been reporting any
significant change. In the words of one, "Members of the Israeli embassy in
Egypt have still been meeting with the same people they had been meeting
with before the revolution, although they might complain about an increased
sense of public resentment".

Another Western diplomat, who is also based in Cairo, said that Israel is
"content with the way (Egyptian authorities) have been handling the Rafah
Crossing Point" that links Egyptian eastern borders with the Israel-besieged
Gaza Strip. "They got a little concerned in the beginning when (former
Foreign Minister) Nabil El-Arabi spoke of a complete opening of the borders
but at the end of the day they see that things are well-monitored and they
admit that Egypt is still keeping an eye on the illicit tunnels that
Palestinians built to pass from Gaza to Egypt," he added.

According to the official narrative from the Egyptian side, all security
coordination meetings have been taking place as scheduled. Egypt's demands
of increased military presence in Sinai, beyond the agreed levels of the
1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, have been "immediately condoned" by Israel.

"We had no problem getting an agreement on this matter," said the
Sinai-based security source. He added that "it must be very clear to the
Israeli side" that Egypt is really concerned over the infiltration of
militant elements from Gaza into the Egyptian territories and that this
matter has to be "firmly attended to or else ti would be a problem not just
for us but also fro the Israelis".

According to the same Sinai-based security source "the elements that have
been instigating unrest in Sinai are not at all Hamas elements; they are
much more radical".

The upgrade of military presence in Sinai, according to security and
official sources, would "immediately be decreased once the situation there
is stabilized". This, however, is something that is likely to take some
time – and Israel is well aware of this.

===========

Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA