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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Dahaf Poll: If Lapid runs with Kadima national camp has 58 seats

Dahaf Poll: If Lapid runs with Kadima national camp has 58 seats
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 10 January 2012

Sima Kadmon at Yedioth Ahronot doesn't want to report the news - she wants
to make the news. So she had Dahaf try to come up with a way that the great
white hope of the Left, Yair Lapid, could still deliver the goods and
proposed that Lapid join Kadima. This is hardly the first time that
newspapers have run polls to pitch their ideas.

Consider the following: While Deri is certainly being promoted as the
platform for tricking some naive Sefardies into putting the left back into
power, it is hardly a foregone conclusion that if the below were the actual
results that he would go with a minority Left government (51 sitting in the
government coalition + 11 Arabs voting to support from the outside) rather
than squeeze out the most he could from Netanyahu to be part of a 63 strong
ruling coalition.

The survey was commissioned by Yediot Ahronot and conducted by Dahaf via
telephone on 9 January 2012. Yediot Ahronot does not indicate the sample
size nor its composition.

Asked twice:
#1 Livni heads Kadima
#2 Mofaz heads Kadima
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
#1 #2
28 28 [27] Likud
15 16 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
13 08 [28] Kadima
13 14 [13] Labor
11 14 [---] Party lead by Yair Lapid
06 06 [11] Shas
05 05 [--] Party lead by Arieh Deri
04 04 [03] Meretz
11 11 [11] Arab parties
04 04 [03] Jewish Home/NRP)
02 02 [04] National Union
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
02 02 [---] Greens
National camp total: 61 if Livni heads Kadima and 62 if Mofaz heads Kadima

And if Lapid runs together with Kadima?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
27 [27] Likud
29 [28] Kadima with Lapid
14 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
12 [13] Labor
05 [--] Party lead by Arieh Deri
National camp total: 58 Left 57 Deri 5
[Yediot Ahronot does not provide details for other parties]

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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