Poll: Livni heads Kadima: National camp 67 Left: 42 Arabs: 11
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 19 January 2012
Parties must to receive 2% of the valid votes (equivalent to 2.4 seats) in
order to enter the Knesset.
1. The survey was commissioned by The Orly & Guy Morning Program - Channel
10 TV and conducted by telephone on 18 January 2011 among a random sample of
501 respondents, constituting a representative sample of Israel's
adult population (aged 18 and over - including Israeli Arabs).Maximum
sampling error is 4.5% with respect to various estimates.
2. The survey was conducted by Maagar - Interdisciplinary Research and
Consulting Institute Ltd., managed by Professor Yitzhak Katz.
3. Respondents were asked twice how they would vote:
#1. If Livni heads Kadima
#2. If Mofaz heads Kadima
In both instances, three potential parties were included in the list of
parties to choose from:
#1. Party headed by Yair Lapid
#2. Party headed by Arieh Deri
#3. Party headed by Rabbi Chaim Amsellem. Rabbi Amsellem is an
ultra-orthodox rabbi MK who broke away from the Shas party. He advocates
the participation of ultra-orthodox in the IDF and the workforce and has
also been in the vanguard on matters relating to the status, under Jewish
law, of Russian immigrants who have Jewish lineage but not Jewish mothers
(qualify to what might be termed a considerably less demanding "express
conversion" to Judaism) as explained in great detail in his book, "Seed of
Israel" (Zera Yisrael). There has been considerable speculation that Rabbi
Amsellem would join with either Deri or Lapid.
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
13 ----  Kadima headed by Livni
--- 09  Kadima headed by Mofaz
26 28  Likud
14 15  Labor
02 02 [---] Ehud Barak Independence Party
07 08 [---] Party lead by Yair Lapid
03 03 [---] Party lead by Arieh Deri
07 07  Shas
17 17  Yisrael Beiteinu
04 04  Jewish Home/NRP)
06 06  Yahadut Hatorah
03 03  Meretz
05 05  National Union
02 02 [---] Party lead by Rabbi Chaim Amsellem
11 11  Arab parties
Livni heads Kadima: National camp 67 Left: 42 Arabs: 11
Mofaz heads Kadima: National camp 69 Left: 40 Arabs: 11
The chairwoman of Kadima, MK Livni, announced today that the primaries to
choose the head of Kadima and their candidate for PM will be held end March.
Who do you think should head Kadima?
Total: Livni 24% Mofaz 15% Dichter 9% Shitreet 2% None of the above, don't
know, other 46%
Voted Kadima last elections: Livni 34% Mofaz 24% Dichter 14% Shitreet 5%
None of the above, don't know, other 23%
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
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