PCPO Poll # 181 February 12, 2012
A Public Opinion Poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali
http://pcpo.org/PollsFiles/Poll181EN.doc
Dr. Kukali: “The people need a government that can help them to tackle their
problems, not a government that expects from its people to solve its
problems”.
The most important results are:
(54.7 %) of the Palestinians are concerned about their subsistence.
(64.7 %) oppose the recent financial policy of Salam Fayyad government and
demand its revocation.
(40.0 %) believe that the economic situation in the Palestinian territories
would
recess after the conclusion of the reconciliation between
Fatah and Hamas.
(65.1 %) believe that what happens in the Arab world negatively impacts the
Palestinian issue.
(42.7 %) believe that the rise of the Islamic movements in the Arab world
has a
positive effect on the popularity of Hamas movement.
(56.1 %) are satisfied with the performance of President Mahmoud Abbas.
(39.0 %) would vote in the coming elections for Fatah, (30.0 %) for Hamas.
(35.6 %) favor Ismael Haniyyeh for the chairmanship of Hamas Politburo;
(17.2 %)
favor Aziz al-Duwaik, the Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative
Council.
(24.0 %) watch al-Arabiyyeh TV-channel, (18.7 %) watch al-Jazeera
TV-channel.
(49.9 %) would vote for Mahmoud Abbas, (29.0 %) for Khaled Mish’al.
Beit Sahour – Public Relations Office:
The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted by the
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period from
January 22 till February 4, 2012, covered a random sample of (1151)
Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of
adult Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including
East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (64.7 %) of the Palestinian
public oppose the recent financial policy of Salam Fayyad government and
demand its revocation.
Dr. Nabil Kukali, President of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion,
said in a statement that the next government is required not only to suspend
working with the recent financial policy, but has to revoke it. Increasing
the tax load, transferring more employees to retirement, reducing the public
expenses, cancelling certain governmental departments and imposing more
fees,fines and procedures on the licensing of different investment projects
will certainly impair in a direct way the living and financial situation of
the Palestinian citizen and would debilitate the desire for investing in the
country, Dr. Kukali said. This, by its turn, would lead to a further
deterioration of the economic situation and would have a negative impact on
the outcome of the coming elections, because the people need a government
that can help them to tackle their problems, not a government that expects
from its people to solve its problems, he added.
Furthermore, in his statement Dr. Kukali mentioned that the Palestinian
people view in fact the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ as the ‘Palestinian fall’,
because it negatively impacts the Palestinian issue. Instead of caring more
about the future of the Palestinians, the Arab regimes and their people are
now concerned more than ever about their own internal situation and their
domestic economic and security problems. In addition, Dr. Kukali pointed out
that, notwithstanding the rise of Hamas popularity compared with previous
polls, President Mahmoud Abbas still enjoys the respect, appreciation and
support of the Palestinian people.
Dr. Kukali further said that the majority of the Palestinian people still
support the resumption of the peace negotiations with Israel. As indication
thereto, the majority were in favor of the resumption of the exploratory
talks held in Amman under Jordanian custody between the Palestinian and the
Israeli negotiators.
Dr. Kukali concluded his statement saying that he is observing a declination
in the rate of al-Jazeera viewers to the advantage of other TV-channels.
This declination could be attributed
to the growing feelings of the Palestinian citizen that al-Jazeera is no
more a distinguished TV-channel, but has become an ordinary Arab TV-channel
as many others, that lost their credibility and professionalism in
broadcasting news and events.
The Findings:
Implementation of the reconciliation agreement:
Responding to the question:” If you look back on the past, would you say now
that you are optimistic or pessimistic for the possibility of reaching the
stage of implementing the reconciliation agreement concluded between Fatah
and Hamas ?”, (58.3 %) answered that they are “optimistic”, (38.6 %)
“pessimistic” and (3.1 %) said “I don’t know”.
Mahmoud Abbas and Khalid Mish’al:
Regarding the question:” If new presidential elections for the Palestinian
Authority would be held now and Mahmoud Abbas would run these elections for
Fatah and Khalid Mish’al for Hamas, for whom would you vote ?”, (49.9 %)
said “for Mahmoud Abbas”, (29.0 %) “for Khalid Mish’al”, (17.9 %) said “I
didn’t decide yet” and (3.2 %) answered:” I don’t know”.
Elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council:
And on the question: “If there would be upon the approval of all presently
acting political powers new elections to the Palestinian Legislative
Council, which of the following candidate-lists would you vote for ?”: (39.0
%) said they would vote for a list backed by Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas, (30.0
%) for a list backed by Hamas and Ismail Haniyyeh, (13.1 %) for a list
backed by the Leftists and Salam Fayyad, (3.2 %) for a list backed by the
Independents, (0.7 %) for a list backed by Islamic Jihad and Ramadan
Shallah, (1.7 %) said “I won’t vote for any of the above mentioned lists
and would take decision in due time, whilst (12.3 %) said “I wouldn’t vote”.
And in this context on the question: “If presidential and PLC-elections
would be held in the next months, are you going to participate in these
elections or not ?”, (73.4 %) answered “Yes, I will participate”, (17.3 %)
said “No, I will not participate” and (9.3 %) said “I don’t know”.
The Arab Spring:
Responding to the question:” Whilst some people in the Palestinian
Territories believe that what’s happening now in the Arab world and what
they call the ‘Arab spring’ is to the benefit of the Palestinian issue,
others believe these events have a negative impact on the Palestinian issue,
which of the two opinions is closer to your point of view ?”, (28.2 %) said
“the current events in the Arab world pour into the benefit of the
Palestinian issue, (65.1 %) said “the current events in the Arab world have
a negative impact on the Palestinian issue” and (6.7 %) answered “I don’t
know”.
And with respect to the question:” How, according to your opinion, would the
rise of the Islamic tide and movements in the Arab world impact the
popularity of Hamas in the coming parliamentary and presidential elections ?
Would this have a positive or a negative impact on Hamas popularity ?”,
(42.7 %) said “this would have a positive impact”, (27.1 %) “a negative
impact”, (23.9 %) said “this would make no difference” and (6.3 %) said “I
don’t know”.
Performance of the President Abu Mazin:
And regarding the question:” Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way
President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) is performing his duty as president of
the Palestinian Authority ?”, (56.1 %) answered that they are “satisfied”,
(38.0 %) are “dissatisfied” and (5.9 %) said “I don’t know”.
Chairmanship of Hamas Politburo:
Regarding the question:” Media sources mentioned that Khaled Mishal, Head of
Hamas Politburo, has declared his intention not to offer himself once again
as Hamas candidate for the post of the Head of Hamas Politburo for the
coming leadership term, who, do you think, would be the favorite successor
?”, (4.8 %) said “Moussa Abu Marzouq”, (35.6 %) “Ismail Haniyyeh”, (2.9 %)
“Hassan Youssuf”, (8.2 %) “Khalil al-Hayya”, (14.9 %) “Mahmoud al-Zahhar”,
(0.6 %) “Salah al-Bardawil”, (17.2 %) “Aziz al-Duwaik”, (3.8 %) “Sami
Abu-Zahra”, (0.6 %) “others”, and (11.4 %) said “I don’t know”.
Exploratory talks in Jordan:
Regarding the question:” Exploratory talks are held in Amman on 7/1/2012
between the Palestinian chief-negotiator, Dr. Saeb Erekat, and the Israeli
envoy, Isaac Molcho, in the presence of the Jordanian Minister of Foreign
Affairs, Nasser Judeh. Are you in favor of such encounters or against them
?”, (51.7 %) said they are “in favor”, (31.5 %) “against” such encounters
and (16.8 %) answered “I don’t know”.
The best ways to end the occupation:
And on the question:” Which, in your opinion, is the best way to end the
occupation and establish the Palestinian State ?”, (15.4 %) answered “the
peace negotiations till a deal is concluded between the Palestinians and the
Israelis”, (26.0 %) “the nonviolent resistance (the popular Intifada)”,
(14.4 %) “the work through the United Nations”, (29.4 %) “holding an
international conference that impose the solution on all parties involved “,
(13.5 %) “violent actions” and (1.3 %) said “I don’t know”.
The future peace perspective:
And on the question: “Now let’s have a look at the future when your children
will become in your age. Do you think that there would be at that time peace
between the Israelis and the Palestinians ?” (14.2 %) answered “definitely”,
(23.1 %) “likely”, (32.9 %) “possibly”, (14.6 %) “unlikely”, (12.7 %)
“certainly no”, and (2.5 %) said “I don’t know”.
The recent financial policy:
With respect to the question:” In a statement issued by the institutions of
the private sector about the recent financial policies of the Palestinian
government, these institutions called upon the government to revise its new
financial policy and to revoke all relevant resolutions, measures and
instructions in force. Do you support or oppose the content of this
statement?” (64.7 %) answered “I support it”, (25.5 %) “I oppose it” and
(9.8 %) said “I don’t know”.
The overall economic situation:
On the question:” How do you rate the overall economic situation in the
Palestinian territories ?”, (25.4 %) answered “good”, (35.8 %) “middle”,
(38.3 %) “bad” and (0.5 %) said “I don’t know”.
Concern about own subsistence:
Regarding the question:” Up to which extent are you concerned now about the
subsistence of your family ?”, (24.3 %) answered “too much concerned”, (30.4
%) “concerned”, (30.1 %) “not so much concerned”, (15.0 %) “not concerned at
all”, and (0.2 %) said “I don’t know”.
Impact of the reconciliation on the economy:
And responding to the question:” Do you believe, in general, that the
economic situation in the country would improve, regress, or remain
unchanged after the conclusion of the reconciliation accord between Fatah
and Hamas ?”, (33.8 %) said “the economic situation would improve”, (40.0 %)
“it would regress”, (25.7 %) “it would remain unchanged” and (0.5 %) said
“ I don’t know”.
The European and American assistance:
And responding to the question:” Up to which extent do you think the
European and American financial assistance contribute in general to the
welfare of the Palestinian people ?”, (23.9 %) said “to a great extent”,
(40.5 %) “fairly”, (27.6 %) “slightly”, (7.3 %) said “nil”, and (0.7%) said
“I don’t know”.
The citizen’s main concern:
And responding to the question:” What is your main concern at present ?”,
(39.6 %) answered “the job / the money”, (22.4 %) “the security”, (14.3 %)
“the health” and (23.7 %) “the future”.
Self-content with own life:
And lastly responding to the question:” Given a scale of self-content
between (1) and (10) grades where (1) stands for “extremely discontent” and
(10) for “extremely content”, where would you stand on this scale ?”, the
result was –as an arithmetic average – (4.77) at a standard deviation of
(2.2) grades. This means that the Palestinian public is generally discontent
with their lives.
Personal security:
Regarding the question: “ Up to which extent are you worried about your
personal security ?”, (22.9 %) said “too much worried”, (35.6 %) “worried”,
(24.5 %) “not so much worried”, (16.8 %) “not worried at all”, and (0.2 %)
answered:”I don’t know”.
The TV-channels:
On the question:” Which TV-channel you prefer to watch the news broadcast on
?”, (24.0 %) said “al-Arabiyyeh TV”, (18.7 %) “al-Jazeera TV”, (15.3 %)
“Palestine TV”, (13.9 %) “al-Aqsa TV”, (11.1 %) “Manar TV”, (10.7 %) “MBC”
and (6.3 %) said “I watch other TV-channels”.
Optimism and Pessimism:
With respect to the question:”In view of the political and economic
situations prevailing in the Palestinian territories these days, do you feel
optimistic or pessimistic for the future ?”, (41.3 %) said they feel
“optimistic”, (56.3 %) “pessimistic” and (2.4 %) said “I don’t know”.
Methodology of the Survey Study:
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies' Section at the
PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the
respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at
least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper
representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise
be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using
Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (160) election
sites, from which (120) sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in
Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission.
These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple
random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice
made from those regions in accordance with PCPO's long experienced
methodology.
Mr. Elias Kukali has further established that the margin of error was
(±2.88%) at a significance and confidence levels of (5.0%) and (95%)
respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this
survey was (49.6%) against (50.4%) male respondents. The distribution of the
random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (63.2%) in the
West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (36.8%) in Gaza Strip, and
allocated as follows: (51.9%) for the towns, (31.8%) for the villages and
(16.2%) for the camps.
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