Observation: Quiet should not be the goal today in Gaza

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 12 March 2012

Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya'alon told Israel Radio today in a live
interview that Israel’s goal today is to restore the quiet.

Simply put, the Gazans have a green light to continue to dramatically
improve the range, accuracy, payloads and sheer volume of weapons as long as
they don’t use them. Too much.

That was, by the way, also the message of the Cast Lead Operation that
despite its ferocity did not make a significant dent in the capabilities of
the Gaza forces.

WHY IS THE GOAL LIMITED TO QUIET ONLY?

#1. To avoid shifting focus from Iran?

If by some miracle President Obama decides that his reelection does not take
priority over all else, then the decision to act on Iran will be based on an
assessment of what Iran is doing – not what Israel is or isn’t doing in the
Gaza Strip.

#2. To avoid devoting resources that might be used in an operation against
Iran?

None of the equipment that would be used in a major campaign in the Gaza
Strip is relevant to an operation against Iran.

If the concern is maintaining resources to deal with a response from
Hizbullah in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran then one could argue
that, if anything, it makes sense to neutralize the Gaza Strip now so that
we don’t face a multi-front threat from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip in
retaliation for an Israeli operation against Iran.

#3. To avoid annoying the White House?

However bad the true situation is vis-à-vis President Obama and Israel
today, it is magnitudes better now than it will be in a second term.

Yes, it will be “payback time” for Mr. Obama against Binyamin Netanyahu
after the November elections. But there is a limit to what the punishment
can be and Netanyahu is already slated to receive it.

SO WHY ACT NOW?

#1. First and foremost, because the weapons now in the Gaza Strip could play
a devastating role in the event of a multi-front conflict. A full blown
assault from Gaza significantly impairs the call up of reserves, interferes
with the movement of regular forces and diverts critical resources from the
other fronts.

#2. There is a very significant possibility that Israel’s relations with
Egypt may deteriorate in the future.

In a worse case nightmare situation, the heavily armed Gaza Strip could act
as a forward station for invading Egyptian forces.

Conflict with Gaza in the future could also serve as an excuse or catalyst
for an Egyptian clash with Israel.

At the very least, soured relations with Egypt would significantly deter
Israel from acting against Gazan threats in the future.

#3. Israel’s latitude to act today is considerably greater than it will be
if and when Iran has nukes.

It is with an extremely heavy heart that I write about the need to take a
post-nuclear Iran into account. But it would be irresponsible to base
policy on the rosy assumption that things are going to work out.

Yes, it is next to impossible to predict either to what extent a nuclear
Iran would extend its nuclear umbrella to protect its satellites in Lebanon
and the Gaza Strip, or at least be perceived to do so by others who would in
turn counsel us to avoid conflict at all costs. But there is no question
that there is a very significant possibility that a nuclear Iran will
dramatically change the equation.

Planning horizons of days and weeks are very comforting for policy makers
seeking to avoid costly decisions.

But the purpose of the exercise isn’t making it easier to indefinitely
postpone what is best done today.

The decision makers owe it to their constituents to look beyond the next
weeks and even months.

THE IRONY?

Time and again the Israeli street has begged its leaders not to take short
cuts. To follow through and get the job done despite the cost.

Time and again we have witnessed bereaved parents calling at the grave site
for their dead son’s commanders to carry on the battle to victory and not be
deterred by their loss.

Yes. The Israeli street is willing and able to make the sacrifices
compelled by a planning horizon that goes beyond the next 24 hours.

Is the leadership?

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il