Weekly Commentary: Preparing for failed talks

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 1 August 2013

According to the common narrative, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu agreed
to release a group of terrorist murderers as the "entrance fee" for talks
with the Palestinians because:

#1. In the absence of talks, Israel faced a nightmare at the UN (sound
familiar? "tsunami" anyone?).

#2. Israel wanted to avoid losing the "blame game" by being identified as
the party responsible for the failure of the "peace process".

#3. Mr. Netanyahu has truly existential matters to address in the timeframe
that coincides with the length of the talks and participating in the talks
facilitates addressing these truly existential matters.

Which brings us to the obvious question: what happens the day that the last
group of pre-Oslo terrorists is released and the Palestinians express their
profound disappointment and frustration due to the ongoing refusal of Israel
to cross various "red lines"?

"Red lines", by the way , that American officials and many retired Israeli
security officials and leading Israeli journalists consider "crossable".

What happens then?

#1. Will we be any better prepared to address Palestinian action at the UN
and other international forums?

#2. Will we have a strategy in place for minimizing the consequences of
losing the "blame game"?

And most important:

#3. Will we have a viable game plan on the shelf in the event that it turns
out that the truly existential matters aren’t resolved before the talks?

My concern?

That in the absence of a workable post-talks plan, the concessions and
gestures Binyamin Netanyahu may feel compelled to make in order to extend
the talks will be magnitudes worse than the painful and costly release of
the pre-Oslo terrorists that facilitated launching the talks.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il Website: http://www.imra.org.il