[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: Even a plurality of Israeli Arabs do not think a
nice signing ceremony would end the conflict as far as the Palestinians are
concerned. This, of course, has profound implications with regard to what
arrangements are acceptable within the framework of this extremely expensive
photo-op.]

Recently, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said that if an
Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is signed, as far as the Palestinians
are concerned, it will mark the end of the historic conflict between the two
peoples. Do you believe or not believe that the Palestinians would indeed
see the signing of an agreement as marking the end of the conflict, as
Israel demands?
Jews/Arabs
I don’t believe it at all 54.6/29.4
I don't believe it so much 22.9/18.4
I somewhat believe it 15.7/32.0
I strongly believe it 4.6/11.6
Don’t know/No answer 2.3/8.6

The Peace Index – August 2013
(N=601)
27–28.8.2013

What is your position on holding peace negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority?
Jews/Arabs
Strongly in favor 31.2/67.7
Somewhat in favor 32.6/22.2
Somewhat opposed 12.7/2.9
Strongly opposed 18.4/3.5
Don’t know/No answer 5.0/3.8

Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead to peace between Israel and the Palestinians
in the coming years?
Jews/Arabs
Strongly believe 7.7/16.5
Somewhat believe 24.0/30.3
Somewhat don’t believe 20.6/24.0
Don’t believe at all 46.5/23.5
Don’t know/No answer 1.2/5.6

The European Union has adopted a resolution prohibiting all 28 of its
countries from cooperating with or giving economic assistance to Israeli
entities that are active in the territories, including research grants and
scholarships. To what extent do this resolution and international calls for
a boycott of Israeli products endanger or not endanger Israel economically?
Jews/Arabs
They do not endanger Israel at all 14.3/18.0
They hardly endanger Israel 12.8/8.0
They endanger Israel a little 39.3/24.5
They endanger Israel a lot 27.7/39.7
Don’t know/No answer 5.8/9.7

In your opinion, does this EU resolution indicate a significant danger to
Israel’s status in the international community?
Jews/Arabs
I am sure it indicates a significant danger 17.6/16.4
I think it indicates a significant danger 31.3/27.4
I don’t think it indicates a significant danger 28.7/34.0
I’m sure it doesn’t indicate a significant danger 18.7/13.8
Don’t know/No answer 3.6/8.5

Recently, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said that if an
Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is signed, as far as the Palestinians
are concerned, it will mark the end of the historic conflict between the two
peoples. Do you believe or not believe that the Palestinians would indeed
see the signing of an agreement as marking the end of the conflict, as
Israel demands?
Jews/Arabs
I don’t believe it at all 54.6/29.4
I don't believe it so much 22.9/18.4
I somewhat believe it 15.7/32.0
I strongly believe it 4.6/11.6
Don’t know/No answer 2.3/8.6

Prime Minister Netanyahu recently said that a peace agreement is vital to
preventing a situation in which Israel would become a bi-national state
without a Jewish majority in the foreseeable future. In your opinion, is
this statement by the prime minister true or untrue?
Jews/Arabs
True 47.6/33.7
Untrue 45.0/49.8
Don’t know/No answer 7.4/16.5

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement by Minister
Naftali Bennett that the idea of a Palestinian state within the Land of
Israel has died, or, in other words, that the concept of two states for two
peoples has died?
Jews/Arabs
I strongly agree 27.8/9.8
I somewhat agree 13.3/21.8
I don’t agree so much 28.6/20.3
I don’t agree at all 25.4/37.5
Don’t know/No answer 4.8/10.6

As we know, it was the Americans who initiated the current
Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. In this context, in your opinion, to
what extent is President Obama in fact committed to safeguarding Israel’s
security?
Jews/Arabs
He is very committed to safeguarding Israel’s security 34.5/65.3
He is moderately committed 36.4/17.1
He is not so committed 16.3/2.9
He is not at all committed to safeguarding Israel’s security 10.2/5.0
Don’t know/No answer 2.5/9.7

According to media reports, Israel has been trying to persuade the United
States and Europe not to halt economic aid to Egypt, so as to help the
Egyptian army, which overthrew President Morsi, overcome Egypt’s crisis and
stabilize its government. If indeed these reports are accurate, has Israel
acted wisely or unwisely in trying to persuade the United States and Europe
to continue the economic aid to Egypt?
Jews/Arabs
I’m sure Israel acted wisely 33.8/17.6
I think Israel acted wisely 32.1/18.9
I think Israel acted unwisely 14.5/24.7
I’m sure Israel acted unwisely 5.9/17.4
Don’t know/No answer 13.7/21.4

In your opinion, in terms of Israel's interests, is it good or not good that
the Egyptian army overthrew President Morsi?
Jews/Arabs
Very good 25.3/24.1
Good 30.8/19.6
Not so good 12.7/19.1
Not good at all 6.8/14.1
Don’t know/No answer 24.4/23.2

How will Morsi’s ouster by the army affect Israeli-Egyptian relations, if at
all?
Jews/Arabs
It will greatly improve relations 6.1/18.3
It will moderately improve relations 23.7/17.2
It won’t affect relations 34.5/28.3
It will moderately damage relations 8.5/8.5
It will greatly damage relations 3.1/6.0
Don’t know/No answer 24.2/21.7

If the United States and its allies attack Syria soon in response to the use
of chemical weapons by Assad's forces, do you think that Syria will or will
not carry out its threat to attack Israel in response?
Jews/Arabs
I think Syria will carry out its threat to attack Israel 45.9/40.0
I think Syria will not carry out its threat to attack Israel 41.5/46.9
Don’t know/No answer 12.6/13.1

And if the United States indeed leads an attack on Syria, how do you think
this will affect the status of the United States as a key player in the
Middle East?
Jews/Arabs
It will not affect the status of the US as a key player in the Middle East
one way or another 20.8/20.3
It will increase the status of the US as a key player 54.0/25.7
It will decrease the status of the US as a key player 13.9/33.5
Don’t know/No answer 11.3/20.5

A new year is approaching. In each of the following areas, in your opinion,
will Israel’s situation in the coming year improve, worsen, or remain the
same?

14.1 Military-security
Jews/Arabs
Improve 28.3/29.8
Remain the same 46.1/28.6
Worsen 16.4/26.9
Don’t know/No answer 9.2/14.8

14.2 Political-diplomatic (foreign relations)
Jews/Arabs
Improve 24.1/21.0
Remain the same 49.8/28.8
Worsen 16.6/35.1
Don’t know/No answer 9.5/15.0

14.3 Narrowing social gaps
Jews/Arabs
Improve 14.5/17.8
Remain the same 40.1/35.6
Worsen 38.1/36.2
Don’t know/No answer 7.3/10.4

14.4 Economic stability
Jews/Arabs
Improve 19.5/22.6
Remain the same 38.6/22.9
Worsen 31.9/43.1
Don’t know/No answer 9.9/11.4

14.5 Personal security of citizens
Jews/Arabs
Improve 20.5/15.7
Remain the same 49.6/34.1
Worsen 22.4/38.9
Don’t know/No answer 7.5/11.3

14.6 Attentiveness of leaders to the public
Jews/Arabs
Improve 17.6/16.2
Remain the same 56.1/25.8
Worsen 17.2/28.5
Don’t know/No answer 9.2/29.5

The Peace Index: August 2 2013

Date Published: 03/09/2013
Survey dates: 27/08/2013 - 28/08/2013

The implications of an attack on Syria – The Jewish public in Israel is
divided on the question of whether Syria will carry out its threat to attack
Israel if the United States and its allies attack Syria in response to the
use of chemical weapons by Assad’s forces. A slightly higher rate (46%)
takes the Syrian threat seriously, while a slightly lower rate (41.5%)
thinks Syria will not carry out its threat to attack Israel. A more
clear-cut division was found on the question of how an attack on Syria, if
it is indeed carried out, will affect the status of the United States as a
key player in the Middle East: a majority of the Jewish public (54%) thinks
the status of the United States will be increased, while 14% expect it to be
decreased. About one-fifth (21%) thinks the status of the US will not
change, while the rest do not know. In the Arab sector, the distribution of
views on whether Syria will fulfill its threat is also not clear-cut, but
the trend is in the opposite direction: the higher rate (47%) thinks Syria
will not attack Israel and the lower rate (40%) thinks it will. As for the
impact of an attack on the status of the United States in the Middle East,
the Arab public is divided, with a bit of an advantage for those who think
the move would decrease the status of the US in the region (33.5% believe
the status would be decreased, 26% believe it would be increased, 20% think
there would be no effect, and the rest do not know).

The situation in Egypt – According to media reports, Israel tried to
persuade the United States and Europe to continue their foreign aid to
Egypt. A large majority of the Jewish public (66%) thinks or is sure that
this attempt at persuasion was wise. This position is consistent with the
majority (56%) that affirms that the ousting of President Morsi by the
Egyptian army was in Israel's interest. In the same vein, while the most
common response among Jewish respondents to the question of how Morsi’s
ouster will affect Israeli-Egyptian relations was that relations will not be
affected (34.5%), the rate of those who think his ouster will improve
relations (30%) is almost three times higher than the rate of those who
believe it will damage relations (12%). In the Arab public, the responses to
the question about the wisdom of the Israeli pressure to continue foreign
aid are different from those of the Jewish public. In this case, the
minority (36.5%) thinks Israel acted wisely if it appealed to Western states
not to halt the aid to Egypt, while a higher rate (42%) believes that such
an appeal, if it was indeed made, was unwise. At the same time, as in the
Jewish sample, the highest rate among Arabs (44%) asserts that Morsi’s
overthrow was in Israel’s interest while the minority (33%) thinks the
opposite. As for the future of Israeli-Egyptian relations, the prevailing
opinion in the Arab public is that relations will indeed improve as a result
of the regime change in Egypt (35.5%), while the second largest group (28%)
thinks that they will not change. Only 14.5% in this population expect
relations to worsen.

Israel and the EU decision – The Jewish public was not indifferent to the
European Union’s decision to prohibit all 28 EU countries from cooperating
with or providing economic assistance to Israeli entities that are active in
the territories: 67% of the Jewish public sees the decision as endangering
Israel economically. As for the effect of this decision on Israel’s
international status, opinions in the Jewish public are divided: about half
(49%) thinks the decision entails significant danger to Israel’s
international status while a similar rate (47%) does not think the decision
poses such danger. A similar proportion of the Arab public also views the EU
decision as endangering Israel economically (64%). As for the danger to
Israel's international status, opinions on this are divided among the Arab
population as well (44% see a danger, while 48% do not).

The negotiations with the Palestinians – A complex picture emerges regarding
the Jewish public’s view of the chances of reaching a peace agreement based
on the two-state formula. A small majority (54%) disagrees with Minister
Naftali Bennett's statement that the idea of a Palestinian state within the
Land of Israel is dead; however, a large minority (41%) agrees with this
statement. In addition, the Jewish public is almost evenly split on Prime
Minister Netanyahu’s recent assertion that a peace agreement is vital to
prevent a situation in which Israel will eventually become a bi-national
state that lacks a Jewish majority. Forty-eight percent think this is an
accurate statement while 45% do not. These data strengthen our previous
finding that there is currently no sweeping support for the two-state
solution and indicate that the Israeli public is not losing sleep over the
basic premise of the negotiations that without two states a bi-national
reality will emerge.

The Jewish public's skepticism and ambiguity in the Jewish public’s
positions on a solution to the conflict also emerge in perceptions of the
trustworthiness of the two main players in this issue: Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas and U.S. President Barack Obama. Only a small minority (20%)
believes Abbas’s statement that the signing of a peace agreement would mark
the end of the historic conflict between the two people for the
Palestinians; an overwhelming majority of 77.5% does not believe this
statement. And yet, 71% of the Jewish public affirms that in the context of
returning to the negotiating table, President Obama is committed to
safeguarding Israel’s security.

In the Arab public, the majority (58%) disagrees with Minister Bennett’s
claim that the two-state solution is dead, and the largest share of
respondents, actually almost a majority (50%), disagrees with Prime Minister
Netanyahu’s statement that a peace agreement is vital to prevent a future
situation in which Israel becomes a bi-national state. Regarding Abbas’s
assertion that the signing of an agreement would mean the end of the
conflict from the Palestinians’ perspective, the Arab public is divided: the
highest rate (48%) does not believe Abbas, while 44% does. This may indicate
that Israeli Arabs themselves do not see a peace agreement as the end of the
conflict from the Palestinian perspective. The rate of Arab respondents who
see President Obama as committed to Israel’s security (82%) is decidedly
larger than in the Jewish public (71%). This may indicate that they do not
see him as an “honest broker.”

Expectations for the New Year – In general, the data indicate that the
prevailing view in the Jewish public is that what was is what will be in all
the areas that we asked about. (military-security—46%,
political-diplomatic—50%, reducing socioeconomic gaps—40%, economic
stability—39%, personal security—50%, leaders’ degree of attentiveness to
the public—56%). At the same time, within the assessments that the situation
will change, in two areas—military-security and political-diplomatic—the
rate of those who expect the situation to improve is higher than those who
believe it will get worse (28% vs. 16% and 24% vs. 17%, respectively). A
reverse picture, and with larger disparities, emerges in the area of
socioeconomic gaps (14.5%—improve, 38%— worsen) and for economic stability
(19.5%—improve, 32%—worsen). In the two remaining areas—personal security
and leaders’ attentiveness to the public—there are no significant
differences between the rates of optimism and pessimism; in other words, the
public assumes that what was is what will be.

The picture for the Arab public is a bit different and more pessimistic. In
the military-security realm, opinions are almost evenly divided between
those who think the situation will remain the same (29%), those who think it
will improve (30%), and those who think it will worsen (27%). In the
political-diplomatic area, the most common view is that Israel’s situation
will worsen (35%, while 29% think it will remain the same, and 21% think it
will improve). On the issue of reducing socioeconomic gaps, there is almost
equivalence between those who expect the situation to remain the same
(35.6%) and those who expect it to worsen (36.2%), with only a small
minority expecting an improvement (18%). On the issue of economic stability,
the prevailing view is that the situation will worsen (43%, compared to 23%
who expect it to remain the same and 23% who expect it to improve). On the
issue of personal security, the highest rate thinks the situation will
worsen (39%, while 34% expect it to remain the same, and 16% expect it to
improve). And on the issue of leaders’ attentiveness to the public, here too
the prevailing feeling is that the prospects are gloomy (28.5% expect it to
worsen, 26% to stay the same, and 16% to improve).

The Negotiations Index for August, 2013
The Peace Index project includes ongoing monitoring of the Israeli public's
attitudes towards peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority. The monthly Negotiation Index is comprised of two questions, one
focusing on public support for peace negotiations and the other on the
degree to which the public believes that such talks will actually lead to
peace. The aggregated replies to these two questions are calculated,
combined, and standardized on a scale of 0–100, in which 0 represents total
lack of support for negotiations and lack of belief in their potential to
bear fruit, and 100 represents total support for the process and belief in
its potential. Each month, the Negotiations Index presents two distinct
findings, one for the general Israeli population and the other for Jewish
Israelis.

Negotiation Index: General sample 48.9; Jewish sample 45.6.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. This
month’s survey was conducted by telephone by the Midgam Research Institute
on August 27–28 among 601 respondents, who constitute a representative
national sample of the adult population aged 18 and over. The survey was
conducted in Hebrew, Arabic, and Russian. The maximum measurement error for
the entire sample is ±4.5% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical
processing was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.