Technical note: for demilitarization of Gaza - keep it simple
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 15 July 2014

Many different officials and others are now pitching the idea that
demilitarization of the Gaza Strip should follow after a cease fire goes
into effect (if and when it does).

Unfortunately, if there is one thing we have learned from the Oslo
experience it is that third parties are profoundly unreliable in such
matters.

The CIA no doubt does fantastic work spying around the world, but when the
White House assigned them the task of evaluating the performance/compliance
of PA security forces and at the same time made it clear that it served U.S.
interests for the PA security forces to pass with flying colors, the CIA
adopted the principles of the three monkeys (hear no evil, see no evil,
speak no evil) and prepared glowing reports.

There is though a second approach that can involve willing third parties:
witnessing and documenting the destruction of equipment.

Step #1 Set a timetable with minimum numerical goals for the destruction of
various weapons along with a procedure for reliably observing and
documenting the destruction process.

Step #2. Implement the timetable.

To be clear: there is no room here for a third party observer to report "we
inspected the area and found nothing". It's either "the following is
documentation of the destruction of weapons in compliance with the
timetable" or "the following is documentation of the failure to destroy
weapons in compliance with the timetable"

What about the rocket factories?

If we have intelligence on specific locations and the key equipment in the
locations we can require that their being cleared out and the key equipment
destroyed be documented.

There's a good chance that some of the facilities will be emptied out before
the observers arrive but they will be cleared out.

It's not a 100% solution.

But the alternative of a demilitarization program that does not have
numerical goals and timetables would be a farce doomed to failure.


Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il Website: http://www.imra.org.il