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Saturday, August 23, 2014
DM Ya'alon surrenders to Hamas? Goal is that Hamas doesn't shoot - they can build missiles and prepare to attack ?

[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 23 August 2014

Let there be no illusions here.

Let us not communicate with the public as if they are children.

We all know the truth.

We all know that the missiles slamming into our cities are manufactured in
the Gaza Strip.

We all know that the missiles are fueled by material that can be derived
from fertilizer.

And we all know that any international inspection regime will permit the
importation of fertilizer for Gaza agriculture.

We all know that the missiles are built using metal.

And we all know that any international inspection regime will permit the
importation of metal for Gaza construction and other purposes.

And if someone wants to fool himself and say that only metal of a quality
that cannot be used to make missiles will be allowed in they are only
fooling themselves. All the shipments of metal will have the documentation
that the grade of the metal meets the restrictions - but the 55th truckload
that has the same documentation as the 54 before it won't actually have the
lower grade metal and there will be no way for the people inspecting the
shipments to know this. Out of thousand of truckloads there will be
hundreds with the material needed for the ongoing arms industry.

And yes, I know exactly why DM Ya'alon doesn't think it matters.

That's because I have asked him this question time and again over these past
years regarding the "quiet for quiet" policy.

DM Ya'alon is confident that we are advancing up the technology/defense
curve faster than Hamas is advancing up the technology/attack curve.

But take note:

The stunning revelation by Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, who as the
National Security Advisor of Israel from May 2011 until November 2013 had
full access to everything Israel knew about Hamas, on a 16 July 2014
appearance on Chanel 2 TV Evening News, that he was surprised that there
were rockets in the Gaza Strip that could reach beyond Tel Aviv. This
followed on 25 July 2014 when he said on the same station that the
Israeli security services were not at all surprised by any aspect of the
tunnels - they just didn't appreciate the significance of the tunnels.

That's to say, as DM Ya'alon continued to be confident that "quiet for
quiet" was a fantastic policy, they were clueless as to just has fast Hamas
was in fact advancing on the technology/defense curve and they were equally
clueless with regard to the significance of these advances.

To a practical urgent suggestion: before we make a critically tragic mistake
based on possibly more hubris than anything else:

Urgently gather a team of the smartest and most innovative combat officers
along with a few technical people and tell them to "red team" what they
would do if they were the heads of Hamas and had two years of "quiet for
quiet" and that their ULTIMATE GOAL WAS THE DESTRUCTION OF THE JEWISH STATE.

Give "Red Team Gaza" three days to come up with a plan.

And then put them in a room and run through the simulation with "Red Team
Gaza" facing off against other commanders.

My guess: some very shocking results.

Results that will lead DM Ya'alon and PM Netanyahu to reach the conclusion
that no matter how high the cost of crushing the "Hamas can" instead of
kicking the "Hamas can" down the road, this cost is miniscule as compared to
the cost of allowing Hamas to exploit "quiet for quiet".

There is absolutely nothing to prevent the implementation of this
recommendation:

1. It costs next to nothing.
2. It has no interaction with foreign elements - either friend or foe.

One last thought: if the Government doesn't want to do this because they
don't want to have to deal with the results there are several Israeli think
tanks whose raison d'etre is to provide policy makers with their insight and
recommendations. Each of them has rolledexes full of reserve combat
officers and others who could readily participate in such an exercise.

===========


Ya'alon: Practical goal for the time being – ceasefire
Israel Radio Asaf Puzeilov
First published: 18:44, 23:08:14 | Last Update: 19:19, 23:08:14
http://www.iba.org.il/bet/bet.aspx?type=1&entity=1036126
[Translation by IMRA]

The Defense Minister met in the afternoon with the heads of communities near
Gaza.

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said that the practical goal is to achieve a
cease-fire now and not the demilitarization of the [Gaza] Strip.

He stressed that Israel would not tolerate the status quo of attrition and
said that the political goal is to finish the campaign with an agreement.

Ya'alon met in the afternoon with the leaders of the communities a regional
councils around Gaza in the wake of criticism voiced by residents of the
South regarding the defense establishment.

Community leaders said they expect the State to fund the evacuation of
residents who want to leave northward, while at the same time financially
assisting communities and enabling them to expand.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on A
rab-Israeli relations

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