Dialog Poll makes classic error in poll measuring importance of Kachlon and =

Saar parties
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 19 September 20014

It=92s a trap that usually only novices fall into when working with politic=
al =

polls: asking people if they might CONSIDER voting for hypothetical party =
X =

instead of asking "what party would you vote for if party X was running".

The results for the first question are fantastic for the egos of those =

associated with party X.

The results for the second question - though still distorted since the =

results are for a party that the rest of the political system has yet to =

attack - at least give some indication of how many seat the party might win.

Poll carried out 16 September by Dialogue under the supervision of =

statistics professor and pollster Camil Fuchs of a representative sample of =

498 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs).
Published in Haaretz on 19 September 2014
Statistical error +/- 4.4 percentage points

Would you consider voting for the party of Moshe Kachlon?
Yes 16% No 65% Don't know 19%

If Gideon Saar joins in a joint party with Kachlon, would you consider =

voting for the joint party?
Yes 23% No 58% Don't know 19%

After Gideon Saar announced he will resign, what is the chance you will vot=
e =

for the Likud - more, less or same as before?
More 2% Less 15% Unchanged 80% Don't know 3%

Who is most appropriate to be prime minister?
Netanyahu 38% Herzog 7% Liberman 6% Bennett 5% Kachlon 5% Saar 5% Livni 5% =

Lapid 4%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il =

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